{"id":224566,"date":"2024-11-21T17:29:03","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T09:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/?p=224566&post_type=thought-leadership&preview_id=224566"},"modified":"2024-11-22T12:28:48","modified_gmt":"2024-11-22T04:28:48","slug":"%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e5%80%98%e7%82%92%e9%ae%91%e5%85%ac-%e6%81%90%e9%87%80%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e7%9f%9b%e7%9b%be","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/opinions-and-speeches\/%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e5%80%98%e7%82%92%e9%ae%91%e5%85%ac-%e6%81%90%e9%87%80%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e7%9f%9b%e7%9b%be\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6703\u8fad\u9000\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u6210\u529f\u7576\u9078\u4e0b\u5c46\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5f8c\uff0c\u8fc5\u5373\u7c4c\u7d44\u5167\u95a3\u3002\u5f9e\u4eba\u9078\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6bcf\u500b\u4efb\u547d\u90fd\u662f\u8981\u985b\u8986\u539f\u6709\u5efa\u5236\uff0c\u9019\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u589e\u6dfb\u6fc3\u539a\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u660e\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\u90fd\u6709\u65b0\u4e3b\u7ba1\u4e0a\u4efb\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u8077\u4f4d\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u7e3d\u7d71\u63db\u5c46\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\u4eba\u9078\uff0c\u90a3\u4fbf\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u73fe\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u548c\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u5f8c\u56e0\u52a0\u606f\u5f15\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\u3002\u770b\u4f86\u82e5\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e5f\u6703\u4ee5\u89aa\u4fe1\u53d6\u4ee3\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4f86\u500b\u7ffb\u5929\u8986\u5730\u7684\u6539\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8207\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u8a00\u800c\u55bb\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u6b21\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u53ef\u898b\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u8abf\u67e5\u90fd\u986f\u793a\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u9078\u6c11\u6700\u95dc\u5fc3\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u800c40\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u5931\u6557\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u901a\u8139\u57282021\u5e74\u4e2d\u5df2\u660e\u986f\u5448\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u7fcc\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u5148\u767c\u5236\u4eba\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u56e0\u800c\u5192\u5347\u81f32022\u5e746\u6708\u76849.1%\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u901a\u8139\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e2d\u5df2\u653e\u7de9\u81f3\u7d043%\uff0c\u60df\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4f01\u3002\u75312021\u5e744\u6708\u81f3\u672c\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u5347\u4e8618.3%\uff0c\u9019\u90fd\u88ab\u9078\u6c11\u7b97\u5728\u62dc\u767b\u548c\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u982d\u4e0a\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u9593\u5de5\u8cc7\u96d6\u7136\u6709\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u537b\u88ab\u770b\u70ba\u500b\u4eba\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u61c9\u5c0d\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u51fa\u552e40%\u7684\u6230\u7565\u77f3\u6cb9\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u7d13\u7de9\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u4f46\u7562\u7adf\u4e0d\u82e5\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u6709\u6548\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u88ab\u50b3\u7d71\u601d\u7dad\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b70\u984c\u4e0a\u4e00\u8cab\u91cd\u5c31\u696d\u8f15\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u770b\u898b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u76844%\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fbf\u8a8d\u70ba\u5df2\u8d0f\u5f97\u6c11\u5fc3\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e8640\u5e74\u4f86\u901a\u8139\u90fd\u8655\u65bc\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7d0450\u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9078\u6c11\u90fd\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u9762\u5c0d\u7121\u7aef\u5931\u53bb\u5927\u5e45\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u628a\u901a\u8139\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u9ad8\u50f9\u683c\u4ee5\u8b00\u53d6\u66b4\u5229\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9019\u6b21\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u6162\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u653f\u5ba2\u7522\u751f\u628a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6536\u6b78\u653f\u5e9c\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u7684\u610f\u5716\u3002\u8af7\u523a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9019\u6b21\u52dd\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5169\u5e74\u591a\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e8c\u9032\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u8fc5\u901f\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u7269\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u63ed\u66c9\u5f8c\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u525b\u597d\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5728\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u4e0a\u88ab\u554f\u53ca\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8981\u4ed6\u8fad\u8077\u6703\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ea\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u4e0d\u300d\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u662f\u597d\u5e7e\u79d2\u9418\u7684\u51b7\u5834\uff0c\u7121\u8072\u52dd\u6709\u8072\u5730\u9053\u51fa\u4ed6\u8207\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5f35\u529b\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e2017\u5e74\u4ee5\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u53d6\u4ee3\u8036\u502b\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff1b\u5176\u5f8c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u57282017\u53ca2018\u5169\u5e74\u52a0\u606f7\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b210.25\u5398\uff0c\u628a2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f3\u8f03\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8a8d\u70ba\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u4ed6\u4efb\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u516c\u958b\u7a31\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u662f\u6575\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5718\u968a\u662f\u7b28\u86cb\uff08bonehead\uff09\u7b49\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u7af6\u9078\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6578\u6b21\u63d0\u904e\u7e3d\u7d71\u8981\u6709\u6b0a\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u8cfa\u9322\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u6bd4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6c7a\u7b56\u4eba\u548c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6709\u66f4\u4f73\u76f4\u89ba\u3002\u5176\u5f8c\u4ed6\u53c8\u81ea\u8faf\uff0c\u8aaa\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u76f4\u63a5\u63a7\u5236\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u7e3d\u7d71\u53ef\u5982\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e00\u6a23\u5c31\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u8868\u9054\u610f\u898b\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u5728\u7af6\u9078\u671f\u9593\u6e1b\u606f\u6709\u52a9\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7af6\u9078\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u591a\u6b21\u63d0\u53ca\u7576\u9078\u5f8c\u6703\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u500b\u6b0a\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9b91\u4ecd\u53ef\u638cFOMC \u8a95\u5169\u6b0a\u529b\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/h5>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4f9d\u64da\uff0c\u662f1913\u5e74\u570b\u6703\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08Federal Reserve Act\uff09\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u67093\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u7d44\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve Board of Governors\uff09\u300112\u5bb6\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08Federal Reserve Banks\uff09\u548c\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Federal Open Market Committee\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31FOMC\uff09\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u300a\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e00\u8077\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u67097\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u90fd\u7531\u7e3d\u7d71\u63d0\u540d\u548c\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u4efb\u671f14\u5e74\uff0c\u539f\u5247\u4e0a\u4e0d\u80fd\u7e8c\u4efb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4efb\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5927\u7d04\u6bcf\u5169\u5e74\u59d4\u4efb\u4e00\u540d\u65b0\u6210\u54e1\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53ca\u5169\u4f4d\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u7531\u7e3d\u7d71\u57287\u4eba\u4e2d\u63d0\u540d\u53ca\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u4efb\u671f4\u5e74\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u4f5c\u70ba\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4efb\u671f\u52302026\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u52302028\u5e741\u6708\u624d\u7d50\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u90a312\u5bb6\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u5c0d\u5168\u570b12\u500b\u5340\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5247\u7531\u8a72\u9280\u884c\u7684\u8463\u4e8b\u7269\u8272\u53ca\u59d4\u4efb\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u7e3d\u7d71\u6b0a\u529b\u4e4b\u5167\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7531FOMC\u5236\u5b9a\uff0cFOMC\u8a2d\u670912\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u76847\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u53ca\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5176\u99184\u4f4d\u5247\u7531\u9918\u4e0b11\u5bb6\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8f2a\u6d41\u64d4\u4efb\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u5e2dFOMC\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u3002\u300a\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u8ab0\u662fFOMC\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\uff0cFOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u90fd\u6703\u63a8\u8209\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u70baFOMC\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53ca\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u70baFOMC\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0cFOMC\u7684\u6b63\u3001\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e26\u975e\u7531\u7e3d\u7d71\u63d0\u540d\u59d4\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u6642\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e2d\u6709\u5e7e\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u548c\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caFOMC\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u548c\u6210\u54e1\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8981\u8fad\u9000\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff0c\u9808\u5148\u5f9e\u4ed6\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u8077\u4f4d\u7740\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u89e3\u9664\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u8077\u52d9\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5408\u9069\u548c\u6709\u529b\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5982\u7006\u8077\u6216\u73a9\u5ffd\u8077\u5b88\u7b49\u3002\u82e5\u4ee5\u653f\u7b56\u770b\u6cd5\u8207\u7e3d\u7d71\u6216\u767d\u5bae\u76f8\u5de6\u70ba\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u96e3\u4ee5\u670d\u773e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u89e3\u9664\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8077\u52d9\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u7559\u4ed6\u70ba\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6216\u8a31\u8f03\u70ba\u7c21\u55ae\u6216\u963b\u529b\u8f03\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4ed6\u4ecd\u53ef\u88ab\u63a8\u8209\u70baFOMC\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u548c\u4eca\u5929\u4e00\u6a23\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\u9762\u5c0d\u50b3\u5a92\u3002\u82e5\u7e3d\u7d71\u53e6\u5916\u63d0\u540d\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u6703\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u5169\u500b\u6b0a\u529b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u89e3\u50f1\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u6216\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u9707\u76ea\u3002<\/p>\n

\u548c\u9019\u9ede\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u77db\u76fe\u3002FOMC\u662f\u5408\u6cd5\u5236\u5b9a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u55ae\u4f4d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5b83\u5305\u62ec\u4e867\u4f4d\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u548c5\u4f4d\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u524d\u8005\u7531\u7e3d\u7d71\u63d0\u540d\u59d4\u4efb\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u7684\u59d4\u4efb\u548c\u7e3d\u7d71\u7121\u95dc\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u53c8\u628a\u9280\u884c\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5132\u5099\u91d1\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6b0a\u6388\u4e88\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u5132\u5099\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8207FOMC\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u6b65\u4f10\u4e00\u81f4\u3001\u76f8\u8f14\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u4f46\u5047\u5982FOMC\u8a8d\u70ba\u61c9\u8a72\u63d0\u9ad8\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u7e3d\u7d71\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u537b\u964d\u4f4e\u9280\u884c\u5132\u5099\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u77db\u76fe\u4fbf\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u82e5\u4e0d\u80fd\u6216\u4e0d\u60f3\u4ed8\u51fa\u592a\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u8fad\u9000\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff0c\u90a3\u4ed6\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b49\u5230\u6709\u7a7a\u7f3a\u6642\u59d4\u4efb\u5fd7\u540c\u9053\u5408\u8005\u70ba\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u6210\u54e1\u6216\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u53bb\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u671f\u5167\u63d0\u540d\u4e863\u4eba\uff0c\u5747\u904e\u4e0d\u4e86\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5973\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u8b1d\u723e\u9813\uff08Judy Shelton\uff09\u56e0\u4e3b\u5f35\u7f8e\u5143\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1\u639b\u920e\u53ca\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7f6e\u7591\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u4e00\u4e9b\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u88ab\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8003\u616e\u505a\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u7684\u8c9d\u6851\uff08Scott Bessent\uff09\uff0c\u5efa\u8b70\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u5373\u63d0\u540d\u53ca\u722d\u53d6\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u63d0\u65e9\u78ba\u8a8d\u65b0\u7684\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5f71\u5b50\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u67b6\u7a7a\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u3002\u5f71\u5b50\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53ef\u5c31\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u767c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u6163\u5e38\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\u505a\u6cd5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u807d\u53d6\u5f71\u5b50\u4e3b\u5e2d\u610f\u898b\u800c\u4e0d\u7406\u6703\u4efb\u671f\u53ea\u52302026\u5e74\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u3002\u8c9d\u6851\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u8aaa\u66fe\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u628a\u9019\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u8207\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9867\u554f\u5206\u4eab\u3002\u672a\u77e5\u8c9d\u6851\u9019\u4e00\u62db\u6703\u5426\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u9ee8\u722d\u4e2d\u88ab\u91cd\u8907\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u653f\u58c7\u5e7b\u5f71\u91cd\u91cd\uff1f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb<\/strong>
\n\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388<\/strong><\/p>\n

\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u56db\u5e74\u5341\u4e00\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-224566","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-tc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-tc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-tc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/224566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/224566\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":224596,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/224566\/revisions\/224596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}