{"id":220793,"date":"2024-10-03T17:26:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2024-10-03T17:27:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:27:32","slug":"us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c64\u9762\u770b\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u5f62\u52e2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2021\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62d2\u7d55\u63a5\u53d7\u9078\u8209\u5931\u6557\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u91c0\u6210\u570b\u6703\u5c71\u838a\u7684\u66b4\u52d5\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u756b\u9762\u4ecd\u6b77\u6b77\u5728\u76ee\u3002\u5728\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u6ce2\u8a6d\u96f2\u8b4e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u8f49\u77ac\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u81e8\u8fd1\u4e4b\u65e5\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u9078\u8209\u751a\u5177\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u9996\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u53ca\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u4f4d\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u6372\u571f\u91cd\u4f86\u7684\u770b\u9ede\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u548c\u570b\u969b\u5c40\u52e2\u5747\u8655\u65bc\u6975\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u5371\u6a5f\u56db\u4f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>81%\u4eba\u8996\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u8b70\u984c<\/h5>\n<p>\u5728\u525b\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u77ed\u77ed\u6578\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u7206\u767c\u4e86\u96e3\u4ee5\u6392\u89e3\u7684\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u548c\u4ee5\u54c8\u885d\u7a81\uff0c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u6b50\u7f8e40\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u898b\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9ad8\u58d3\u79d1\u6280\u6230\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u8853\u7684\u9ad8\u6b4c\u731b\u9032\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6f14\u8b8a\u4e5f\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u61c9\u5c0d\u548c\u5408\u7e31\u9023\u74b0\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5c07\u7531\u8ab0\u9818\u5c0e\u3001\u505a\u600e\u6a23\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u8ecc\u8de1\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5927\u6982\u4e5f\u5728\u76e4\u7b97\u5982\u4f55\u5c0d\u6c96\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u6c11\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u58ae\u80ce\u3001\u69cd\u68b0\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u91cd\u9ede\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u616e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u65bc\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u767c\u8868\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u5831\u544a<a href=\"#\u8a3b\">\u3010\u8a3b\u3011<\/a>\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u9078\u6c11\u8003\u616e\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u670981%\u9078\u6c11\u8a8d\u70ba\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u91ab\u7642\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5247\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u8996\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u97ff\u7740\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u9813\u9078\u8209\u6642\u7684\u53e3\u865f\uff1a\u300c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\uff01\u300d\uff08It is the economy, 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Cuts and Jobs Act, 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\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u6c11\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u58ae\u80ce\u3001\u69cd\u68b0\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u91cd\u9ede\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u616e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u65bc\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u767c\u8868\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u5831\u544a\u3010\u8a3b\u3011\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u9078\u6c11\u8003\u616e\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u670981%\u9078\u6c11\u8a8d\u70ba\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u91ab\u7642\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5247\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u8996\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u97ff\u7740\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u9813\u9078\u8209\u6642\u7684\u53e3\u865f\uff1a\u300c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\uff01\u300d\uff08It is the economy, stupid\uff09\u3002\u7ffb\u958b\u904e\u53bb\u7d04\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u8209\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u9078\u8209\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u5169\u5e74\u5167\u6c92\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5728\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u5747\u9806\u5229\u9023\u4efb\uff0c\u9019\u5305\u62ec12\u500b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\u514b\u6797\u9813\u3001\u5c0f\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5e74\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5247\u5168\u90e8\u9023\u4efb\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u67096\u500b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8f03\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u5361\u7279\u3001\u8001\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u70ba\u552f\u4e00\u6e96\u5247\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5e7e\u53ef\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u9663\u524d\u6613\u5e25\uff0c\u6539\u7531\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u61c9\u6230\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u7e3d\u7d50\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u540c\u653f\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u5c1a\u5f855\u661f\u671f\u5f8c\u6aa2\u5b9a\u3002 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\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u6c7a\u5b9a\u65bc\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7968\u800c\u975e\u666e\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u4e9b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u8d77\u7740\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5c40\uff08BEA\uff09\u6578\u5929\u524d\u767c\u8868\u5404\u5dde\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u90fd\u9ad8\u65bc\u5168\u570b\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u548c\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5dde\u3002\u82e5\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u771f\u7684\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u4fbf\u53ef\u8f15\u9b06\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u4e86\u3002 \u8a3b\uff1a https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2024\/09\/09\/issues-and-the-2024-election\/ \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u56db\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-03T09:26:22+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-03T09:27:32+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u5f9e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c64\u9762\u770b\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u5f62\u52e2 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"2021\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62d2\u7d55\u63a5\u53d7\u9078\u8209\u5931\u6557\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u91c0\u6210\u570b\u6703\u5c71\u838a\u7684\u66b4\u52d5\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u756b\u9762\u4ecd\u6b77\u6b77\u5728\u76ee\u3002\u5728\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u6ce2\u8a6d\u96f2\u8b4e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u8f49\u77ac\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u81e8\u8fd1\u4e4b\u65e5\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u9078\u8209\u751a\u5177\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u9996\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u53ca\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u4f4d\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u6372\u571f\u91cd\u4f86\u7684\u770b\u9ede\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u548c\u570b\u969b\u5c40\u52e2\u5747\u8655\u65bc\u6975\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u5371\u6a5f\u56db\u4f0f\u3002 81%\u4eba\u8996\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u8b70\u984c 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\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u6c11\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u58ae\u80ce\u3001\u69cd\u68b0\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u91cd\u9ede\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u616e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u65bc\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u767c\u8868\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u5831\u544a\u3010\u8a3b\u3011\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u9078\u6c11\u8003\u616e\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u670981%\u9078\u6c11\u8a8d\u70ba\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u91ab\u7642\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5247\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u8996\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u97ff\u7740\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u9813\u9078\u8209\u6642\u7684\u53e3\u865f\uff1a\u300c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\uff01\u300d\uff08It is the economy, stupid\uff09\u3002\u7ffb\u958b\u904e\u53bb\u7d04\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u8209\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u9078\u8209\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u5169\u5e74\u5167\u6c92\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5728\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u5747\u9806\u5229\u9023\u4efb\uff0c\u9019\u5305\u62ec12\u500b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\u514b\u6797\u9813\u3001\u5c0f\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5e74\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5247\u5168\u90e8\u9023\u4efb\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u67096\u500b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8f03\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u5361\u7279\u3001\u8001\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u70ba\u552f\u4e00\u6e96\u5247\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5e7e\u53ef\u9023\u4efb\u3002\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u9663\u524d\u6613\u5e25\uff0c\u6539\u7531\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u61c9\u6230\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u7e3d\u7d50\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u540c\u653f\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u5c1a\u5f855\u661f\u671f\u5f8c\u6aa2\u5b9a\u3002 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\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u6c7a\u5b9a\u65bc\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7968\u800c\u975e\u666e\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u4e9b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u8d77\u7740\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5c40\uff08BEA\uff09\u6578\u5929\u524d\u767c\u8868\u5404\u5dde\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u6416\u64fa\u5dde\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u90fd\u9ad8\u65bc\u5168\u570b\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u548c\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5dde\u3002\u82e5\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u771f\u7684\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u4fbf\u53ef\u8f15\u9b06\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u4e86\u3002 \u8a3b\uff1a https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2024\/09\/09\/issues-and-the-2024-election\/ \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 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School","twitter:description":"2021\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62d2\u7d55\u63a5\u53d7\u9078\u8209\u5931\u6557\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u91c0\u6210\u570b\u6703\u5c71\u838a\u7684\u66b4\u52d5\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u756b\u9762\u4ecd\u6b77\u6b77\u5728\u76ee\u3002\u5728\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u52d9\u6ce2\u8a6d\u96f2\u8b4e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u8f49\u77ac\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u9078\u81e8\u8fd1\u4e4b\u65e5\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u9078\u8209\u751a\u5177\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u9996\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u53ca\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7e3d\u7d71\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u9996\u4f4d\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u6372\u571f\u91cd\u4f86\u7684\u770b\u9ede\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u548c\u570b\u969b\u5c40\u52e2\u5747\u8655\u65bc\u6975\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5e74\u5371\u6a5f\u56db\u4f0f\u3002 81%\u4eba\u8996\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u8b70\u984c 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