{"id":219813,"date":"2024-09-19T18:39:11","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T10:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us\/"},"modified":"2024-09-19T18:40:25","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T10:40:25","slug":"worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u56f0\u96e3\u7d13 \u524d\u666f\u582a\u865e"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7af6\u9078\u6b63\u9032\u884c\u5f97\u5982\u706b\u5982\u837c\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6b77\u4f86\u4e3b\u5f35\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u8ecd\u4e8b\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5be6\u65bd\u7d93\u6fdf\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u958b\u652f\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u908a\u5ec2\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u8cc0\u9326\u9e97\u4e3b\u5f35\u64f4\u5927\u793e\u6703\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5c0d\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u523a\u6fc0\u8a08\u5283\uff1b\u96d6\u7136\u4e3b\u5f35\u52a0\u7a05\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u6c92\u6709\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u50b5\u53f0\u53ea\u6703\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb<span>5<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8ca1\u8d64\u6301\u7e8c\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5176\u50b5\u52d9\u6c34\u5e73\u5c45\u4e16\u754c\u524d\u5217\uff0c\u5169\u4f4d\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u537b\u672a\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u512a\u5148\u4e8b\u9805\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u7981\u61f7\u7591\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u50b5\u52d9\u70b8\u5f48\uff0c\u800c\u4f7f\u300c\u897f\u964d\u300d\u4e4b\u8aaa\u61c9\u9a57\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u8ca1\u653f\u8a55\u4f30\u570b\u969b\u6e96\u5247<\/h5>\n<p>\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u4efb\u4f55\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u72c0\u6cc1\u6642\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u4e86\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u7279\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u7684\u7e3d\u6b20\u6b3e\uff0c\u800c\u8d64\u5b57\u5247\u6307\u653f\u5e9c\u5165\u4e0d\u6577\u652f\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u570b\u50b5\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u901a\u5e38\u8207\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08<span>GDP<\/span>\uff09\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba<span>GDP<\/span>\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u9084\u50b5\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u840a\u56e0\u54c8\u7279\uff08<span>Carmen Reinhart<\/span>\uff09\u548c\u7f85\u683c\u592b\uff08<span>Kenneth Rogoff<\/span>\uff09\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u4f86\u81ea\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5408\u4f5c\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7d44\u7e54\u5f9e<span>1946<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<span>2009<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5c0d<span>44<\/span>\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u9032\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u6bd4\u7387\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u50b5\u52d9\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u6bd4\u7387\u8d85\u904e<span>90%<\/span>\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u7387\u76f8\u5c0d\u8ca0\u64d4\u8f03\u8f15\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4f4e\u7d04<span>1.5%<\/span>\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5247\u4f4e\u8fd1<span>3%<\/span>\u4e4b\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u65bc\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u8ca1\u8d64\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u8d85\u904e<span>3%<\/span>\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u4ee4\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u570b\u969b\u6a5f\u69cb\u611f\u5230\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u4ee5\u6b50\u76df\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u65bc<span>1997<\/span>\u5e74\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u300c\u7a69\u5b9a\u8207\u589e\u9577\u516c\u7d04\u300d\uff08<span>Stability and Growth Pact<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u904e\u76e3\u7763\u548c\u9650\u5236\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u53ca\u516c\u50b5\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u8ca1\u653f\u7a69\u5b9a\u548c\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0d\u5f97\u8d85\u904e\u5176<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<span>3%<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u50b5\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u61c9\u7dad\u6301\u5728<span>60%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u82e5\u63a1\u7528\u6b64\u4e00\u6e96\u5247\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u8d64\u3001\u50b5\u52d9\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u73fe\u6cc1\uff0c\u96e3\u514d\u4ee4\u4e0d\u5c11\u6709\u8b58\u4e4b\u58eb\u5c0d\u5176\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6182\u5fc3\u5fe1\u5fe1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53d7\u5230\u8fd1<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f4e\u50b5\u52d9\u6210\u672c\u7684\u50ac\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6027\u554f\u984c\u3002<span>2023<\/span>\u5e74<span>6<\/span>\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u62dc\u767b\u7c3d\u7f72\u570b\u6703\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u8ca1\u653f\u8cac\u4efb\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u66ab\u505c\u4e86<span>31.4<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u76f4\u5230<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74<span>1<\/span>\u6708\u70ba\u6b62\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u6574\u9ad4\u50b5\u52d9\u70ba<span>33<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d04<span>28<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u53f0\u9ad8\u7bc9<\/h5>\n<p>\u3010\u5716<span>1<\/span>\u3011\u986f\u793a\uff0c<span>2023<\/span>\u5e74\u516c\u50b5\u8207<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1<span>100%<\/span>\uff0c\u7e3d\u50b5\u52d9\u5df2\u8d85\u904e<span>120%<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u81ea\u4e8c\u6230\u7d50\u675f\u6642<span>103%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b\u4f46\u4ea6\u66fe\u56e0\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u76c8\u9918\uff0c\u5728<span>1974<\/span>\u5e74\u964d\u81f3<span>23%<\/span>\u3002<span>2001<\/span>\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u9813\u7e3d\u7d71\u96e2\u4efb\u6642\uff0c\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u70ba<span>32.8%<\/span>\uff0c\u6b64\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u9023\u7e8c<span>23<\/span>\u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca1\u8d64\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u50b5\u52d9\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fd1\u4e4e<span>100%<\/span>\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u662f\u65e5\u5f8c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4\uff08<span>CBO<\/span>\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u6b64\u6bd4\u7387\u5c07\u65bc<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u9054<span>116%<\/span>\uff0c<span>2054<\/span>\u5e74\u66f4\u5c07\u5347\u81f3<span>163%<\/span>\u3002\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u9577\u9060\u7d93\u6fdf\u80af\u5b9a\u6703\u69cb\u6210\u63a3\u8098\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-219802 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"462\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1.png 708w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1-300x196.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>\u8ca1\u653f\u6536\u652f\u56b4\u91cd\u5931\u8861<\/h5>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74<span>6<\/span>\u6708\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u5c07<span>2024<\/span>\u5e74\u5ea6\u8ca1\u8d64\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0a\u8abf<span>4000<\/span>\u591a\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9054\u5230<span>2<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u70ba<span>7%<\/span>\u3010\u5716<span>2<\/span>\u3011\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5f62\u6210\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c<span>2020<\/span>\u5e74\u70ba<span>3.13<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2021<\/span>\u5e74\u70ba<span>2.78<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5206\u5225\u70ba<span>14.7%<\/span>\u548c<span>11.8%<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u64da<span>CBO<\/span>\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u7bc0\u7bc0\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<span>1990<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u5e73\u5747\u70ba<span>1380<\/span>\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2000<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u70ba<span>3180<\/span>\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2010<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u70ba<span>8290<\/span>\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2020<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u66f4\u9ad8\u9054<span>2.23<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u904e\u53bb<span>3<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u9f90\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4f4e\u3001\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\u5e73\u7a69\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u7522\u751f\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u8d64\u5b57\u5c6c\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\uff0c<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u7684\u7d2f\u8a08\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u6599\u5c07\u9ad8\u4f01\u65bc<span>22.1<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\u8ca1\u8d64\u6e90\u81ea\u9ad8\u958b\u652f\u3002\u81ea<span>1974<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u5e73\u5747\u4f54<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<span>17.3%<\/span>\uff0c\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u7387\u5247\u5e73\u5747\u7d04\u70ba<span>21%<\/span>\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5e74\u5747\u8d64\u5b57\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4ecb\u4e4e<span>3%<\/span>\u8207<span>4%<\/span>\u4e4b\u9593\u3002\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u8fd1\u4e4e\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u652f\u51fa\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u7d04\u70ba<span>24%<\/span>\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u9810\u8a08\u672a\u4f86<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u5c07\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1<span>25%<\/span>\uff0c\u8ca1\u8d64\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u6bd4\u7387\u5247\u9054<span>7.7%<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u70ba\u4e86\u5f4c\u88dc\u8fd1<span>2<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6536\u652f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u52a0\u7a05\u548c\u7bc0\u6d41\u96d9\u7ba1\u9f4a\u4e0b\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u7a05\u52d9\u5c40\u6700\u65b0\u7684<span>2021<\/span>\u5e74\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u9996<span>5%<\/span>\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u5bcc\u88d5\u968e\u5c64\u7e73\u4ea4\u7a05\u6b3e\u4f54\u6240\u5f97\u7a05\u8fd1\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u9996<span>25%<\/span>\u7684\u6536\u5165\u968e\u5c64\u7e73\u4ea4\u8fd1<span>90%<\/span>\u7684\u7e3d\u7a05\u6b3e\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u968e\u5c64\u5247\u6709\u534a\u6578\u50c5\u7e73\u7d0d<span>2.3%<\/span>\u7684\u7e3d\u7a05\u6b3e\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u52a0\u7a05\u9808\u5177\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u61c9\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6295\u8cc7\u5931\u53bb\u52d5\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a<span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u524a\u6e1b\u4e86\u500b\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u7a05\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\u3002\u6cd5\u6848\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5c07\u5728<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u5230\u671f\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0d\u6703\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u7d2f\u8a08\u8ca1\u8d64<span>22.1<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u518d\u589e\u52a0<span>4<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span> <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-219805\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1.png 725w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 725px) 100vw, 725px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>\u55ae\u9760\u52a0\u7a05\u96e3\u671b\u6536\u6548<\/h5>\n<p>\u62dc\u767b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5df2\u627f\u8afe\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u4f4e\u65bc<span>40<\/span>\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff08\u4f54\u7e3d\u6578<span>95%<\/span>\uff09\u52a0\u7a05\uff0c\u537b\u6709\u610f\u5411\u9918\u4e0b\u7684<span>5%<\/span>\u52a0\u7a05\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u4ed8<span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u6cd5\u6848\u4e00\u65e6\u5ef6\u9577\u6240\u9700\u3002\u7136\u800c\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u52a0\u5fb5\u5bcc\u4eba\u7a05\u85c9\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u652f\u6548\u679c\u6210\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u958b\u652f\u76ee\u524d\u6709<span>80%<\/span>\u5c6c\u5f37\u5236\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u5c31\u662f\u9996\u5169\u9805\u6700\u5927\u958b\u652f\uff1b\u53ea\u6709<span>20%<\/span>\u5c6c\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u570b\u9632\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u6392\u9664\u570b\u9632\u4e00\u74b0\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u7684\u958b\u652f\u7d04<span>7500<\/span>\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7576\u524d<span>65<\/span>\u6b72\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9054<span>18%<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u793e\u4fdd\u548c\u91ab\u7642\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u652f\u51fa\u6709\u589e\u7121\u5df2\u3002\u8fd1<span>20<\/span>\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u6b64\u5169\u5927\u9805\u7684\u958b\u652f\u672a\u7d93\u570b\u6703\u5be9\u67e5\uff0c\u4f46\u9810\u8a08\u5728<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u5167\u540c\u6a23\u9762\u81e8\u8cc7\u91d1\u8017\u76e1\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u8981\u7dca\u7e2e\u958b\u652f\u8ac7\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u50b5\u52d9\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee4\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u5c0d<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8d85\u904e<span>3%<\/span>\u3002<span>CBO<\/span>\u9810\u6e2c<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u5f8c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u5c07\u9054<span>1.7<\/span>\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u5e9c\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u798f\u5229\u8a08\u5283\u96e3\u514d\u53d7\u5230\u6ce2\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u50b5\u52d9\u64f4\u5f35\u5982\u4f55\u6536\u5834<\/h5>\n<p>\u773e\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u8209\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u3002\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u6bcf\u5e74\u9808\u628a\u73fe\u6709\u50b5\u52d9\u91cd\u65b0\u878d\u8cc7\u7d04\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u9084\u9808\u8cc7\u52a9\u73fe\u884c\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u62cd\u8ce3\u570b\u50b5\u672a\u5fc5\u594f\u6548\uff0c\u5076\u6709\u9583\u5931\uff0c\u66f4\u8db3\u4ee5\u52d5\u6416\u6574\u500b\u767c\u884c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5df2\u88ab\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e\u548c\u60e0\u8b7d\u4e0b\u8abf\u8a55\u7d1a\uff1b\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u64c1\u6709\u7d04<span>25%<\/span>\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6216\u6703\u65bd\u58d3\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u7f8e\u570b\u6539\u8b8a\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728<span>1990<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u7d93\u6709\u300c\u50b5\u5238\u7fa9\u548c\u5718\u300d\uff08<span>bond vigilantes<\/span>\uff09\u8feb\u4f7f\u514b\u6797\u9813\u7e3d\u7d71\u5728\u5176\u6700\u5f8c\u4efb\u671f\u5167\u5be6\u73fe<span>4<\/span>\u6b21\u9810\u7b97\u76c8\u9918\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u570b\u969b\u7d50\u7b97\u9280\u884c\u4ea6\u5728\u5176\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u50b5\u52d9\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u4f7f\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u81e8\u985e\u4f3c<span>2022<\/span>\u5e74\u82f1\u570b\u6240\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7a81\u7136\u5c0d\u82f1\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u656c\u800c\u9060\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u6025\u5287\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u80a1\u5e02\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e82\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u9ad8\u8ca1\u8d64\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u7e6b\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6574\u9ad4\u50b5\u52d9\u6c34\u5e73\u53ca\u8ca8\u5e63\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u300c\u6771\u5347\u897f\u964d\u300d\u7684\u5f62\u52e2\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u529b\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u7121\u9650\u91cf\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u7576\u662f\u4e0b\u5c46\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u9762\u5c0d\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u96e3\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span> Annual Economic Report 2024, Bank of International Settlements<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span> Budget and Economic Outlook, Congressional Budget Office 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u56db\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u5341\u516b\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-219813","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-hkej-column-tc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-tc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/219813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/219813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":219814,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/219813\/revisions\/219814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}