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\u524d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f0f\u723e\u514b\uff08Paul Volcker\uff09\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d00\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4e0d\u60dc\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ee5\u9ad8\u606f\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f7f\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e00\u5ea6\u5347\u81f320\u5398\u3002\u7576\u6642\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0d\u597d\u5224\u65b7\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6642\u5019\u300c\u606f\u300d\u53ef\u800c\u6b62\u3002\u4f0f\u723e\u514b1987\u5e74\u96e2\u4efb\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u67094%\u3002\u96a8\u5f8c\u7684\u683c\u6797\u65af\u5e73\uff08Alan Greenspan\uff09\u66fe\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5426\u63a1\u75282%\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u800c\u4f5c\u7f77\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u5be9\u95b12000\u5e74\u81f32007\u5e74\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff09\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u63a8\u65b7\u5176\u4e2d\u96b1\u542b\u7684\u8207\u6703\u8005\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u70ba1.5%\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u6642\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8c9d\u5357\u5947\uff08Ben Bernanke\uff09\u624d\u57282012\u5e74\u6b63\u5f0f\u4ee52%\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u70ba\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u96d9\u91cd\u4efb\u547d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u52302020\u5e74\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u9577\u671f\u4f4e\u65bc2%\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9042\u628a2%\u76ee\u6a19\u6539\u70ba\u5e73\u57472%\uff0c\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u5be6\u65bd\u8f03\u5bec\u9b06\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u82e5\u76ee\u524d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u5728\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc2%\u6642\u555f\u52d5\u6e1b\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u554f\uff0c2%\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u6703\u5426\u592a\u4f4e\uff1f\u597d\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba2%\u78ba\u5be6\u592a\u4f4e\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u66f4\u5177\u9ad4\u6307\u51fa4%\u662f\u66f4\u4f73\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u524d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u6559\u6388\u5e03\u862d\u67e5\u5fb7\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u3001\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u6642\u7684\u767d\u5bae\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u548c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u5f17\u66fc\uff08Jason Furman\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\uff08Joseph Stiglitz\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8ad6\u9ede\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u53ca\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u8abf\u5229\u7387\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\uff08Taylor rule\uff09\u70ba\u6a19\u6e96\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u6700\u512a\u5316\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5927\u7d04\u662f\u8ca05\u5398\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ea\u80fd\u8a34\u8af8\u65bc\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u7b49\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u901a\u8139\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u89c0\u4e4e\u4e00\u4e9b\u901a\u8139\u73873%\u62164%\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e26\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u60e1\u52a3\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u6253\u64ca\u901a\u8139\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u61c9\u4fee\u65392%\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u6703\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5e36\u4f86\u6df7\u4e82\uff0c\u4e26\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u8aa0\u4fe1\u548c\u65e5\u5f8c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5efa\u8b70\u6539\u70ba4%\u7684\u8ad6\u8005\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u597d\u666f\u6642\u624d\u4f5c\u4fee\u6539\u3002<\/p>\n

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