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Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u8209\u78ba\u4fdd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u95dc\u9375\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u3001\u76e3\u6e2c\u3001\u689d\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f37\u8abf\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u8207\u5c0d\u8a71\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u9047\u8207\u969c\u7919\u3002\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u8b1b\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u71df\u90e8\u9580\u4e4b\u9593\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u6c7a\u7522\u696d\u767c\u5c55\u554f\u984c\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9808\u70ba\u76e3\u5bdf\u53ca\u8a55\u4f30\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8a02\u5b9a\u6a19\u6e96\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u70ba\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65b7\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u95dc\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u820a\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u53ca\u7406\u8ad6<\/h5>\n<p>\u65e9\u572820\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5df2\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5354\u52a9\u5404\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5236\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7576\u6642\uff0c\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u70ba\u751f\u7522\u9818\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u7522\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u89e3\u6c7a\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u9019\u4ea6\u662f\u7b46\u8005\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6700\u6709\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3002\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5247\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u53ea\u5c0d\u65b0\u6d3b\u52d5\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\u63aa\u65bd\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u805a\u7126\u5177\u9ad4\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u975e\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u63a8\u52d5\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7269\u6599\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u975e\u6574\u500b\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u884c\u696d\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5c0d\u65bc\u53d7\u88dc\u8cbc\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u61c9\u78ba\u4fdd\u5176\u5177\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u548c\u793a\u7bc4\u6548\u61c9\u6f5b\u529b\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u653f\u5e9c\u61c9\u8a2d\u7acb\u5c08\u696d\u7684\u4e3b\u7ba1\u90e8\u9580\u548c\u57f7\u884c\u6a5f\u69cb\uff0c\u5168\u529b\u63a8\u884c\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u57f7\u884c\u6a5f\u69cb\u61c9\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u6b0a\u529b\u9802\u5c64\u4e2d\u660e\u78ba\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u95dc\u4e3b\u9ad4\u52a0\u4ee5\u5bc6\u5207\u76e3\u7763\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u5177\u5099\u660e\u78ba\u8a55\u50f9\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u4fdd\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u8a2d\u5b9a\u5167\u7f6e\u7684\u5931\u6548\u689d\u6b3e\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u8207\u79c1\u71df\u90e8\u9580\u5efa\u7acb\u66a2\u901a\u7684\u5b9a\u671f\u6e9d\u901a\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u9808\u61c9\u5c0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u5b78\u7fd2\u548c\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u74b0\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u5177\u5099\u5be6\u9a57\u6027\u548c\u5275\u65b0\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u7279\u5225\u512a\u5f85\u672c\u570b\u751f\u7522\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5c0d\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u512a\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u5c08\u70ba\u570b\u5167\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8a2d\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u70ba\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u512a\u60e0\u4fe1\u8cb8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u7372\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u696d\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u696d\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u8a0a\u606f\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u5275\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u696d\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u4f86\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5b\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking 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Rodrik\uff09\u806f\u540cJuh\u00e1sz\u53ca\u9023\u6069\uff08Lane\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u628a\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u5b9a\u7fa9\u70ba\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u70ba\u5be6\u73fe\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6a19\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6a19\u5305\u62ec\u6fc0\u767c\u5275\u65b0\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u7522\u7387\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3001\u6539\u5584\u6c23\u5019\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u512a\u8cea\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u652f\u63f4\u6eef\u5f8c\u5730\u5340\u767c\u5c55\u3001\u64f4\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u5be6\u73fe\u9032\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b49\u3002 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Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u8209\u78ba\u4fdd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u95dc\u9375\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u3001\u76e3\u6e2c\u3001\u689d\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f37\u8abf\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u8207\u5c0d\u8a71\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u9047\u8207\u969c\u7919\u3002\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u8b1b\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u71df\u90e8\u9580\u4e4b\u9593\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u6c7a\u7522\u696d\u767c\u5c55\u554f\u984c\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9808\u70ba\u76e3\u5bdf\u53ca\u8a55\u4f30\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8a02\u5b9a\u6a19\u6e96\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u70ba\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65b7\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u95dc\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 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\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u7279\u5225\u512a\u5f85\u672c\u570b\u751f\u7522\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5c0d\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u512a\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u5c08\u70ba\u570b\u5167\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8a2d\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u70ba\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u512a\u60e0\u4fe1\u8cb8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u7372\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u696d\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u696d\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u8a0a\u606f\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u5275\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u696d\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u4f86\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5b\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff09\u3002 \u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 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content=\"\u8fd1\u5e74\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u7d93\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u53ca\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u591a\u6b21\u53d7\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u800c\u5c24\u5176\u7740\u91cd\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u72a7\u7272\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4ea6\u9858\u610f\u653e\u68c4\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5949\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u3002 2023\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u9867\u554f\u6c99\u5229\u6587\uff08Jake Sullivan\uff09\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u4e00\u6539\u904e\u53bb\u64c1\u62b1\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6027\u5730\u8ddf\u500b\u5225\u570b\u5bb6\u9032\u884c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ea4\u5f80\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u300c\u53cb\u570b\u5916\u5224\u300d\uff08friendshoring\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u51fa\u5982\u300a\u6676\u7247\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08CHIPS Act\uff09\u3001\u300a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u6cd5\u300b\uff08Inflation Reduction Act\uff09\u7b49\u88dc\u8cbc\u672c\u571f\u751f\u7522\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 \u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b20\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u8207\u4ed6\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u5b9a\u7fa9\u6709\u5206\u5225\uff0c\u4f46\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u81ea1980\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u958b\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002\u6700\u4f73\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u592e\u53ca\u5730\u5340\u653f\u5e9c\u5efa\u7acb\u7d93\u6fdf\u7279\u5340\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728\u6539\u9769\u958b\u653e\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u9019\u4e9b\u7279\u5340\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u7522\u696d\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u5834\u5275\u9020\u898f\u6a21\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4e26\u900f\u904e\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u7522\u751f\u5404\u7a2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5916\u6ea2\uff0c\u5354\u52a9\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u514b\u670d\u6280\u8853\u3001\u8cc7\u8a0a\u3001\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u4ee5\u81f3\u8cc7\u91d1\u7b49\u7684\u77ed\u677f\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u6548\u5206\u64d4\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u3002 \u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u5176\u6210\u529f\u53ef\u5e36\u52d5\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u751f\u7522\uff08\u5982\u96fb\u6c60\u53ca\u65b0\u7269\u6599\u884c\u696d\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u5e36\u52d5\u4e0b\u6e38\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u5982\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u7269\u6d41\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u92b7\u552e\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u53ca\u5275\u65b0\u3002 \u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u8fc5\u901f\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u55ae\u9760\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u820a\u5de5\u696d\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9664\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\u88dc\u8cbc\u53ca\u7a05\u6536\u512a\u60e0\u5916\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cb\u653e\u5927\u91cf\u8fb2\u6751\u4eba\u53e3\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6236\u53e3\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u529f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6c92\u3002\u773e\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u66f4\u56e0\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u7d44\u7e54\u800c\u6301\u7e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u5f97\u4eab\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u555f\u793a 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u9808\u91dd\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u767c\u5c55\u6574\u500b\u65b0\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u4f46\u9808\u914d\u5408\u5340\u5167\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5927\u7063\u5340\u5404\u5730\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u7522\u696d\u4f5c\u9328\uff0c\u767c\u6398\u6211\u5011\u5728\u5176\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u512a\u52e2\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u53ef\u5728\u65b0\u7269\u6599\u53ca\u5fae\u96fb\u5b50\u751f\u7522\u7684\u4e0a\u6e38\u505a\u597d\u7814\u767c\u3001\u878d\u8cc7\u53ca\u6e2c\u8a66\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4e0b\u6e38\u505a\u597d\u5e02\u5834\u63a8\u5ee3\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\uff1b \u7531\u65bc\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u5728\u64f4\u5c55\u6d77\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\u53ca\u7522\u696d\u93c8\uff0c\u672c\u6e2f\u5404\u500b\u884c\u696d\u53ef\u628a\u63e1\u9019\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u91cd\u7d44\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u5b83\u5011\u64f4\u5145\u5728\u5340\u5167\u7684\u751f\u7522\u7db2\u7d61\uff0c\u4e26\u4fc3\u6210\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u6e2f\u8a2d\u7acb\u5730\u5340\u7e3d\u90e8\uff1b \u5efa\u7acb\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u5275\u9020\u5916\u6ea2\u548c\u793a\u7bc4\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u5efa\u8a2d\u4e2d\u7684\u5317\u90e8\u90fd\u6703\u5340\u61c9\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u570b\u5167\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7522\u696d\u5712\u4f5c\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u591a\u500b\u5b9c\u5c45\u5b9c\u696d\u7684\u5c0f\u793e\u5340\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u53c3\u8003\u7f8e\u570b\u591a\u500b\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u5275\u65b0\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53f2\u4e39\u798f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u79d1\u6280\u7d93\u6fdf\u5708\u53ca\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u751f\u547d\u79d1\u6280\u7522\u5b78\u7814\u96c6\u7fa4\u3002\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/implications-of-western-new-industrial-policies-for-hong-kong\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-17T03:00:03+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-24T01:54:45+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u897f\u65b9\u65b0\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u555f\u8fea - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u8fd1\u5e74\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u7d93\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u53ca\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u591a\u6b21\u53d7\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u800c\u5c24\u5176\u7740\u91cd\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u72a7\u7272\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4ea6\u9858\u610f\u653e\u68c4\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5949\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u3002 2023\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u9867\u554f\u6c99\u5229\u6587\uff08Jake Sullivan\uff09\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u4e00\u6539\u904e\u53bb\u64c1\u62b1\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u4e3b\u8ef8\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6027\u5730\u8ddf\u500b\u5225\u570b\u5bb6\u9032\u884c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ea4\u5f80\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f35\u300c\u53cb\u570b\u5916\u5224\u300d\uff08friendshoring\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u51fa\u5982\u300a\u6676\u7247\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08CHIPS Act\uff09\u3001\u300a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u6cd5\u300b\uff08Inflation Reduction Act\uff09\u7b49\u88dc\u8cbc\u672c\u571f\u751f\u7522\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002 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Rodrik\uff09\u806f\u540cJuh\u00e1sz\u53ca\u9023\u6069\uff08Lane\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u628a\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u5b9a\u7fa9\u70ba\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u70ba\u5be6\u73fe\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6a19\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6a19\u5305\u62ec\u6fc0\u767c\u5275\u65b0\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u7522\u7387\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3001\u6539\u5584\u6c23\u5019\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u512a\u8cea\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u652f\u63f4\u6eef\u5f8c\u5730\u5340\u767c\u5c55\u3001\u64f4\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u5be6\u73fe\u9032\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b49\u3002 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Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u8209\u78ba\u4fdd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u95dc\u9375\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u3001\u76e3\u6e2c\u3001\u689d\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f37\u8abf\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u8207\u5c0d\u8a71\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u9047\u8207\u969c\u7919\u3002\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u8b1b\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u71df\u90e8\u9580\u4e4b\u9593\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u6c7a\u7522\u696d\u767c\u5c55\u554f\u984c\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9808\u70ba\u76e3\u5bdf\u53ca\u8a55\u4f30\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8a02\u5b9a\u6a19\u6e96\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u61c9\u70ba\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65b7\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u95dc\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 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\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52f5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cc7\u6e90\u932f\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b78\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f38\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u898b\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5be6\u65bd\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u61c9\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8ca1\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca0\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5f80\u7684\u7522\u696d\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8207\u751f\u7522\u6216\u9078\u4e2d\u8d0f\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4e26\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5009\u5eab\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6307\u51fa\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7576\u6642\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u7522\u696d\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u65bc\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e26\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u82b1\u8fb2\u696d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5099\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b50\u7f8e\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u767c\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u92b7\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5ee3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f85\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u61c9\u3002 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