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\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u57282021\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u7e3d\u7d50\u4e86\u6b50\u6d32\u591a\u570b\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u3010\u8a3b\u3011<\/a>\u3002\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u555f\u52d5\u521d\u671f\u5c0d\u9577\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u606f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u591a\u65bc\u500b\u4eba\u5b58\u6b3e\u3002\u9280\u884c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8cb8\u6b3e\u984d\u666e\u904d\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u76c8\u5229\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u56b4\u91cd\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u62c9\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u82e5\u3002\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b50\u592e\u884c\u7684\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u6700\u591a\u662f\u8ca00.5\u5398\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u4e00\u76f4\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u8ca00.1\u5398\uff0c\u5e45\u5ea6\u90fd\u4e0d\u7b97\u5927\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u9700\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u53bb\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5316\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

2021\u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\u672a\u898b\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5e36\u4f86\u6025\u901f\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u6f6e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e00\u773e\u5be6\u65bd\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u7d1b\u7d1b\u53d6\u6d88\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u65e5\u672c\u76f4\u81f3\u5169\u661f\u671f\u524d\u4ecd\u7136\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7dad\u6301\u5305\u62ec\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6709\u7d04\u5169\u5e74\u6642\u9593\u9ad8\u65bc2%\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u7dad\u6301\u6b63\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u65e5\u7d93\u6307\u6578\u53c8\u7834\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u65e9\u5728\u5927\u534a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u8a55\u8ad6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u56de\u5230\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6216\u8a31\u7531\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u591a\u6b21\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8aa4\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u975c\u89c0\u5176\u8b8a\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u6216\u8a31\u53ea\u56e0\u7f8e\u65e5\u606f\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f4\u65e5\u5713\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u7b49\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8f38\u5165\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u65e5\u672c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5167\u5728\u52d5\u529b\u3002\u81f3\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u65e5\u672c\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5de5\u6703\u9032\u884c\u5e74\u5ea6\u5de5\u8cc7\u8ac7\u5224\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u5e45\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u5e45\u70ba3.7%\uff0c\u662f1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u8d85\u904e3%\uff0c\u800c\u5e73\u5747\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u90545.3%\u3002\u9019\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u5de5\u8cc7\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u901a\u8139\u826f\u597d\u4e92\u52d5\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4e5f\u56e0\u800c\u8d70\u51fa\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u822c\u6bd4\u8f03\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u898b\u6b65\u884c\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u7740\u7f8e\u570b\u9810\u6599\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u7f8e\u65e5\u606f\u5dee\u6536\u7a84\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u751a\u5927\uff0c\u65e5\u5713\u4f5c\u70ba\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5c07\u6703\u5f31\u5316\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u767c\u884c\u300c\u6b66\u58eb\u50b5\u5238\u300d\uff08Samurai bonds\uff09\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u4ea6\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u65e5\u672c\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u9762\u5c0d\u7740\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u548c\u9f90\u5927\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u56f0\u64fe\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u9054\u5230GDP\u7684250%\u591a\uff0c\u70ba\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u5229\u7387\u7531\u96f6\u8f49\u70ba\u6b63\u6578\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u69cb\u6210\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u4e0a\u7684\u984d\u5916\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u61c9\u4ed8\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u7d93\u904e\u4e86\u5931\u53bb\u768430\u5e74\uff0c\u8d70\u51fa\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u89e3\u6c7a\u7d93\u6fdf\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u65b0\u8d77\u9ede\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u3010\u8a3b\u3011 https:\/\/www.imf.org\/-\/media\/Files\/Publications\/DP\/2021\/English\/NIRTSESFEA.ashx<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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