{"id":208206,"date":"2024-01-03T15:35:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T07:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war\/"},"modified":"2024-02-21T10:47:53","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T02:47:53","slug":"how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6211\u5011\u96e2\u6838\u6230\u6709\u591a\u9060?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u96fb\u5f71\u300a\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u4e4b\u7236\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. 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Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u7814\u767c\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u70ba\u53cd\u6230\u7acb\u5834\u548c\u66fe\u7d93\u7684\u5de6\u50be\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002 \u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5287\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u9ad4\u4eba\u985e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002 \u6838\u6b66\u7684\u767c\u660e\u3001\u64f4\u6563\u548c\u7af6\u8cfd\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u8b8a\u5f97\u6975\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u6642\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6838\u6230\u8a08\u5283 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content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u6211\u5011\u96e2\u6838\u6230\u6709\u591a\u9060? - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u96fb\u5f71\u300a\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u4e4b\u7236\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u7814\u767c\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u70ba\u53cd\u6230\u7acb\u5834\u548c\u66fe\u7d93\u7684\u5de6\u50be\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002 \u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5287\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u9ad4\u4eba\u985e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002 \u6838\u6b66\u7684\u767c\u660e\u3001\u64f4\u6563\u548c\u7af6\u8cfd\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u8b8a\u5f97\u6975\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u6642\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6838\u6230\u8a08\u5283 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Ellsberg\uff09\u5ee3\u70ba\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u58ef\u8209\uff0c\u662f1971\u5e74\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u5341\u5e7e\u5bb6\u5831\u7d19\u62ab\u9732\u7d55\u5bc6\u7684\u300c\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u6a13\u6587\u4ef6\u300d\uff0c\u63ed\u767c\u7f8e\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u548c\u8ecd\u65b9\u660e\u77e5\u8d8a\u6230\u7121\u6cd5\u6253\u8d0f\u800c\u5411\u516c\u773e\u548c\u570b\u6703\u96b1\u779e\u771f\u76f8 \u3002 \u6b64\u4e8b\u6210\u70ba\u5f8c\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u5f9e\u8d8a\u5357\u64a4\u8ecd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8a98\u56e0\u3002 \u70ba\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u66fe\u7d93\u7a31\u4ed6\u70ba\u300c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u50f9\u963b\u6b62\u4ed6\u767c\u8072\u3002 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content=\"\u6211\u5011\u96e2\u6838\u6230\u6709\u591a\u9060? - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u96fb\u5f71\u300a\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8b1b\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u4e4b\u7236\u5967\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u7814\u767c\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u70ba\u53cd\u6230\u7acb\u5834\u548c\u66fe\u7d93\u7684\u5de6\u50be\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002 \u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5287\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u9ad4\u4eba\u985e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002 \u6838\u6b66\u7684\u767c\u660e\u3001\u64f4\u6563\u548c\u7af6\u8cfd\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u8b8a\u5f97\u6975\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u6642\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6838\u6230\u8a08\u5283 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Ellsberg\uff09\u5ee3\u70ba\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u58ef\u8209\uff0c\u662f1971\u5e74\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u5341\u5e7e\u5bb6\u5831\u7d19\u62ab\u9732\u7d55\u5bc6\u7684\u300c\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u6a13\u6587\u4ef6\u300d\uff0c\u63ed\u767c\u7f8e\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u548c\u8ecd\u65b9\u660e\u77e5\u8d8a\u6230\u7121\u6cd5\u6253\u8d0f\u800c\u5411\u516c\u773e\u548c\u570b\u6703\u96b1\u779e\u771f\u76f8 \u3002 \u6b64\u4e8b\u6210\u70ba\u5f8c\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u5f9e\u8d8a\u5357\u64a4\u8ecd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8a98\u56e0\u3002 \u70ba\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u66fe\u7d93\u7a31\u4ed6\u70ba\u300c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u50f9\u963b\u6b62\u4ed6\u767c\u8072\u3002 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Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f48\u7814\u767c\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u70ba\u53cd\u6230\u7acb\u5834\u548c\u66fe\u7d93\u7684\u5de6\u50be\u6d3b\u52d5\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002 \u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5287\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u9ad4\u4eba\u985e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002 \u6838\u6b66\u7684\u767c\u660e\u3001\u64f4\u6563\u548c\u7af6\u8cfd\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u8b8a\u5f97\u6975\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u6642\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6838\u6230\u8a08\u5283 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