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400;\">\u5728\u7a69\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u82e5\u500b\u4eba\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u3001\u504f\u597d\u548c\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5df2\u77e5\uff0c\u5247\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u8b8a\u5f97\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e5f\u5c0d\u884c\u70ba\u9810\u6e2c\u8d77\u8457\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u8a73\u7d30\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u8d8a\u5357\u6230\u722d\u671f\u9593\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8a79\u68ee\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u54e1\u5011\u5728\u79c1\u5e95\u4e0b\u5c0d\u5b98\u65b9\u653f\u7b56\u6301\u6709\u7570\u8b70\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u56e0\u70ba\u64d4\u5fc3\u5931\u53bb\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u800c\u6c92\u6709\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u516c\u958b\u5834\u5408\u4e0a\uff09\u767c\u8072\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5b98\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\uff08\u8fad\u8077\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u7559\u5728\u9ad4\u7cfb\u5167\u90e8\u9ed8\u9ed8\u52aa\u529b\u5c0d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u8fad\u8077\u5247\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4ed6\u5011\u5931\u53bb\u9032\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8a00\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\uff1f\u5176\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u9019\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\u662f\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7576\u4ee3\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u8a71\u984c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5beb\u5230\uff0c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u901a\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f37\u7684\u6163\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u793e\u6703\u7fd2\u6163\u901a\u904e\u9000\u51fa\u6a5f\u5236\u4f86\u61c9\u5c0d\u7d44\u7e54\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b83\u5c31\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u767c\u8072\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u7d44\u7e54\u7e3d\u662f\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5ffd\u8996\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u6163\u6027\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u672a\u88ab\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6548\uff1a\u5c0d\u90a3\u4e9b\u672a\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u81ea\u6211\u611f\u89ba\u826f\u597d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u73fe\u5be6\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u5fb9\u5e95\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>\u591a\u6a23\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9664\u4e86\u55ae\u4e00\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5177\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4ea6\u9808\u63a2\u8a0e\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u591a\u6a23\u6027\u3002\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u904b\u7528\u767c\u8072\u8207\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u54c1\u8cea\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u9192\u5728\u900f\u904e\u79c1\u6821\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u500b\u9ad4\u7684\u591a\u6a23\u6027\uff08\u6307\u4eba\u6240\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u6559\u80b2\u8cea\u91cf\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff09\u6216\u53ef\u69cb\u6210\u969c\u7919\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5177\u9ad4\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u79c1\u6821\u900f\u904e\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9ad8\u54c1\u8cea\u7684\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u4e14\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u652f\u4ed8\u6602\u8cb4\u5b78\u8cbb\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u5bb6\u9577\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u767c\u8072\u300d\u4f86\u63d0\u5347\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u54c1\u8cea\u65b9\u9762\u6700\u7a4d\u6975\u4e5f\u6700\u70ba\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4ed6\u5011\u9078\u64c7\u5c07\u5b69\u5b50\u9001\u5f80\u79c1\u6821\uff0c\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u4fbf\u591a\u7559\u4e0b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c0d\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u95dc\u5fc3\u8f03\u5c11\u3001\u4e5f\u8f03\u7121\u529b\u767c\u8072\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u5bb6\u5ead\u3002\u9019\u5c0e\u81f4\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u7684\u8cea\u91cf\u9010\u6f38\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u90a3\u4e9b\u95dc\u5fc3\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u4f46\u7121\u529b\u627f\u64d4\u79c1\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u5b78\u8cbb\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6b64\u4e43\u4e00\u5927\u60b2\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>\u5167\u751f\u6027<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5177\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u85c9\u7531\u7d0d\u5165\u76f8\u95dc\u80cc\u666f\u8a0a\u606f\u4f86\u589e\u9032\u5c0d\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u77ad\u89e3\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u6642\u5982\u6b64\u8a73\u76e1\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u6703\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u69cb\u6210\u6311\u6230\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u500b\u4eba\u9762\u81e8\u591a\u500b\u53ef\u4f9b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u884c\u52d5\u4e4b\u9593\u4fbf\u53ef\u7522\u751f\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6a23\u3001\u932f\u7d9c\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u3002\u4ee5\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u524d\u8ff0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6697\u793a\u9000\u51fa\u6703\u4f7f\u767c\u8072\u591a\u9918\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u65e6\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u500b\u9ad4\u5c31\u7121\u9700\u518d\u767c\u8072\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u52a9\u529b\u767c\u8072\uff1a\u4eba\u5011\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u77e5\u9053\u60c5\u6cc1\u82e5\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u66f4\u9858\u610f\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u5167\u751f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u7121\u9700\u8a34\u8af8\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u767c\u8072\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u5831\u5fa9\u6216\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u5834\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002 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\u4f46\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c64\u600e\u6a23\u901a\u904e\u5c07\u7570\u898b\u8005\u99b4\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u767c\u8072\u5931\u6548\u3002\u99b4\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7d66\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7de8\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7576\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u8b8a\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u7570\u898b\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u70ba\u6e6f\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5beb\u5230\uff0c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u901a\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f37\u7684\u6163\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u793e\u6703\u7fd2\u6163\u901a\u904e\u9000\u51fa\u6a5f\u5236\u4f86\u61c9\u5c0d\u7d44\u7e54\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b83\u5c31\u6703\u4f4e\u4f30\u767c\u8072\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u7d44\u7e54\u7e3d\u662f\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5ffd\u8996\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u6163\u6027\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u672a\u88ab\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6548\uff1a\u5c0d\u90a3\u4e9b\u672a\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u81ea\u6211\u611f\u89ba\u826f\u597d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u73fe\u5be6\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u5fb9\u5e95\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 \u9664\u4e86\u55ae\u4e00\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5177\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4ea6\u9808\u63a2\u8a0e\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u591a\u6a23\u6027\u3002\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u904b\u7528\u767c\u8072\u8207\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u54c1\u8cea\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u9192\u5728\u900f\u904e\u79c1\u6821\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u500b\u9ad4\u7684\u591a\u6a23\u6027\uff08\u6307\u4eba\u6240\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u6559\u80b2\u8cea\u91cf\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff09\u6216\u53ef\u69cb\u6210\u969c\u7919\u3002 \u5177\u9ad4\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u79c1\u6821\u900f\u904e\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9ad8\u54c1\u8cea\u7684\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u4e14\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u652f\u4ed8\u6602\u8cb4\u5b78\u8cbb\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u5bb6\u9577\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u767c\u8072\u300d\u4f86\u63d0\u5347\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u54c1\u8cea\u65b9\u9762\u6700\u7a4d\u6975\u4e5f\u6700\u70ba\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4ed6\u5011\u9078\u64c7\u5c07\u5b69\u5b50\u9001\u5f80\u79c1\u6821\uff0c\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u4fbf\u591a\u7559\u4e0b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c0d\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u95dc\u5fc3\u8f03\u5c11\u3001\u4e5f\u8f03\u7121\u529b\u767c\u8072\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u5bb6\u5ead\u3002\u9019\u5c0e\u81f4\u516c\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u7684\u8cea\u91cf\u9010\u6f38\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u90a3\u4e9b\u95dc\u5fc3\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8cea\u4f46\u7121\u529b\u627f\u64d4\u79c1\u7acb\u5b78\u6821\u5b78\u8cbb\u7684\u5bb6\u9577\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6b64\u4e43\u4e00\u5927\u60b2\u5287\u3002 \u5167\u751f\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 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\u5728\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u8a2d\u767c\u8072\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u96b1\u542b\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u9ad8\u5c64\u6703\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u767c\u8072\u4f5c\u51fa\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5c07\u9ad8\u5c64\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u8996\u4f5c\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\uff09\u3002 \u4f46\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c64\u600e\u6a23\u901a\u904e\u5c07\u7570\u898b\u8005\u99b4\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u767c\u8072\u5931\u6548\u3002\u99b4\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7d66\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7de8\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7576\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u8b8a\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u7570\u898b\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u70ba\u6e6f\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u7ba1\u7406\u53ca\u5546\u696d\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e03\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff0c\u6b64\u70ba\u66f4\u65b0\u7248\u672c\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/opinions-and-speeches\/%e5%85%b7%e9%ab%94%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%ef%bc%9a%e5%be%9e%e8%b5%ab%e5%b8%8c%e6%9b%bc%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8a%e9%80%80%e5%87%ba%e3%80%81%e7%99%bc%e8%81%b2%e8%88%87\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-28T02:13:54+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-29T02:46:06+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u5177\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff1a\u5f9e\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u767c\u8072\u8207\u5fe0\u8aa0\u300b\u8aaa\u8d77 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u6df1\u5177\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u517c\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u963f\u723e\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\uff08Albert Hirschman\uff09\u4ee5\u5176\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u548c\u793e\u6703\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u800c\u805e\u540d\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u767c\u8072\u8207\u5fe0\u8aa0\u300b\uff08Exit, Voice, and Loyalty\uff09\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u4f01\u696d\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u9762\u5c0d\u8870\u9000\u6642\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u6a5f\u5236\u3002 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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u5167\u751f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u7121\u9700\u8a34\u8af8\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u767c\u8072\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u5831\u5fa9\u6216\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u5834\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002 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\u4f46\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c64\u600e\u6a23\u901a\u904e\u5c07\u7570\u898b\u8005\u99b4\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u767c\u8072\u5931\u6548\u3002\u99b4\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7d66\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7de8\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7576\u7570\u898b\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u8b8a\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u7570\u898b\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u70ba\u6e6f\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 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\u5167\u751f\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u5167\u751f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u7121\u9700\u8a34\u8af8\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u767c\u8072\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u5831\u5fa9\u6216\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u5834\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002 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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u5167\u751f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u7121\u9700\u8a34\u8af8\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u767c\u8072\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u5831\u5fa9\u6216\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u5834\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002 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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7d42\u96e3\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c0\u73fe\u5be6\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\u5c31\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u767c\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5287\u8b8a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u9593\u65b7\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u8afe\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5ee3\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u7a81\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u591a\u6a23\u6027 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\u5167\u751f\u6027 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u9084\u662f\u6709\u7919\u65bc\u767c\u8072\uff1f \u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u554f\u984c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u767c\u8072\u5747\u70ba\u5167\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5340\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5728\u7d66\u5b9a\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6790\u5e6b\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u9580\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5167\u751f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u5167\u751f\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u7121\u9700\u8a34\u8af8\u767c\u8072\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u9078\u64c7\u96e2\u958b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7576\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u767c\u8072\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u767c\u8072\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u5831\u5fa9\u6216\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6210\u54e1\u9084\u7121\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u5834\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002 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\u5728\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u8a2d\u767c\u8072\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u96b1\u542b\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u9ad8\u5c64\u6703\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u767c\u8072\u4f5c\u51fa\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u5c07\u9ad8\u5c64\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u8996\u4f5c\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\uff09\u3002 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