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bias\uff09\u5247\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c0d\u985e\u5225\u5178\u578b\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u4f86\u505a\u51fa\u63a8\u65b7\u6216\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u6234\u7740\u773c\u93e1\uff0c\u559c\u6b61\u8b80\u66f8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u548c\u8fb2\u6c11\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u662f\u524d\u8005\u800c\u975e\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u4ed6\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fb2\u6c11\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002 \u9019\u53ea\u662f\u773e\u591a\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u6bd4\u6bd4\u7686\u662f\u3002 \u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u82f1\u570b\u4e00\u4efd\u6709\u540d\u7684\u96dc\u8a8c\u66fe\u520a\u767b\u51fa\u4e00\u5247\u8a02\u95b1\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u4e0b3\u7a2e\u8a02\u95b1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb59\u7f8e\u5143 \uff082\uff09\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \uff083\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\u548c\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7368\u7279\u4e4b\u8655\u4e86\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8ca8\u54c1\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u8981\u50f9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63a8\u65b7\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u524d\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u65bc\u662f\u6253\u96fb\u8a71\u5411\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u8aee\u8a62\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u628a\u9019\u9078\u64c7\u5217\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u5f97\u8981\u9818\u3002 \u8a72\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b93\u5b78\u751f\u5f9e3\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u4e2d\u6311\u9078\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c16%\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u9918\u4e0b\u768484%\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u679c\u7136\u7121\u4eba\u937e\u610f\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u4ed6\u53c8\u627e\u4f86\u53e6\u4e00\u6279\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u53ea\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u6311\u9078\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u670968%\u7684\u4eba\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u53ea\u670932%\u7684\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff01\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u672c\u8eab\u96d6\u7136\u6beb\u7121\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u51fa\u73fe\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u53e6\u5916\u5169\u500b\u6709\u6548\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\uff01 \u9019\u4f8b\u5b50\u8aaa\u660e\u6211\u5011\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73fe\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u61c9\uff08framing effect\uff09\u3002 \u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u662f\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300c\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08overconfidence bias\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u627f\u64d4\u904e\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u8b39\u614e\u5730\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u627f\u64d4\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u300c\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08confirmation bias\uff09\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5c0b\u627e\u548c\u8a18\u4f4f\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u6709\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u5fd8\u8a18\u8207\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\u6216\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u91cd\u8996\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u800c\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u64da\u65b0\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u8abf\u6574\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\u300d\uff08loss aversion\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u640d\u5931\u7684\u53cd\u611f\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5c0d\u540c\u7b49\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u559c\u611b\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u640d\u5931\u6642\u904e\u65bc\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u3002 \u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6539\u9032\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u3002\u900f\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u548c\u7df4\u7fd2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u5011\u7684\u601d\u8003\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u907f\u514d\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 \u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 \u8b80\u8005\u4e5f\u8a31\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u80cc\u5f8c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u6709\u7740\u67d0\u7a2e\u6839\u6df1\u67e2\u56fa\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8af8\u5982\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u80cc\u666f\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u5be6\u539f\u56e0\u5176\u5be6\u5341\u5206\u7c21\u55ae\u3002\u4e39\u9ea54\u570b\u898f\u5b9a\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u570b\u6c11\u5fc5\u9808\u8868\u793a\u53c3\u8207\u624d\u7b97\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u7576\u4f5c\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\u8ad6\uff1b\u5176\u4ed6\u4e03\u570b\u5247\u898f\u5b9a\uff0c\u5176\u570b\u6c11\u5fc5\u9808\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u624d\u7b97\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u7576\u4f5c\u53c3\u8207\u8ad6\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\u56b4\u8085\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u50c5\u50c5\u7531\u65bc\u8868\u683c\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u7d30\u5fae\u5dee\u5225\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u540c\u4e00\u554f\u984c\u7adf\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u300c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u300d\uff01 \u4e5f\u8a31\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5c0d\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\uff0c\u5c31\u9023\u5728\u8868\u683c\u4e0a\u6253\u500b\u920e\u7684\u6642\u9593\u90fd\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u82b1\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u65bc\u8868\u683c\u4e0a\u7684\u9ed8\u8a8d\u9078\u64c7\uff08default option\uff09\u6210\u70ba\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u89e3\u91cb\u5247\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e0a\u8ff0\u554f\u984c\u592a\u904e\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u60c5\u9858\u63a5\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9858\u81ea\u5df1\u601d\u7d22\uff08default option\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u70ba\u6709\u95dc\u7576\u5c40\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff09\u3002 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property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u77e5\u4eba\u8005\u667a \u81ea\u77e5\u8005\u660e - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6211\u5011\u7fd2\u6163\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u3001\u5408\u4e4e\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u7d93\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u616e\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u300c\u4e0d\u7d93\u5927\u8166\u300d\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u76f2\u9ede\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e\u548c\u64cd\u7e31\u800c\u4e0d\u81ea\u77e5\u3002 \u5728\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\uff0e\u5361\u5167\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5feb\u8207\u6162\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5169\u7a2e\u601d\u8003\u7cfb\u7d71\uff1a\u300c\u7cfb\u7d711\u300d\u4ee3\u8868\u5feb\u901f\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u300c\u7cfb\u7d712\u300d\u4ee3\u8868\u6162\u901f\u601d\u8003\uff1a 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\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 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\u8d99\u8000\u83ef\u535a\u58eb \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u5341\u4e00\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/%e7%9f%a5%e4%ba%ba%e8%80%85%e6%99%ba-%e8%87%aa%e7%9f%a5%e8%80%85%e6%98%8e\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-11-23T01:56:10+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-11-24T02:31:56+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u77e5\u4eba\u8005\u667a \u81ea\u77e5\u8005\u660e - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u6211\u5011\u7fd2\u6163\u8a8d\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u3001\u5408\u4e4e\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u7d93\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u616e\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u300c\u4e0d\u7d93\u5927\u8166\u300d\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u76f2\u9ede\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e\u548c\u64cd\u7e31\u800c\u4e0d\u81ea\u77e5\u3002 \u5728\u4e39\u5c3c\u723e\uff0e\u5361\u5167\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5feb\u8207\u6162\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5169\u7a2e\u601d\u8003\u7cfb\u7d71\uff1a\u300c\u7cfb\u7d711\u300d\u4ee3\u8868\u5feb\u901f\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u300c\u7cfb\u7d712\u300d\u4ee3\u8868\u6162\u901f\u601d\u8003\uff1a 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\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u65b0\u805e\u5831\u9053\u95dc\u65bc\u98db\u6a5f\u5931\u4e8b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u904e\u5ea6\u4f30\u8a08\u98db\u884c\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u6027\u3002\u5728\u300c\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u6700\u8fd1\u6216\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u5176\u4ed6\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u3002 \u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08representative bias\uff09\u5247\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c0d\u985e\u5225\u5178\u578b\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u4f86\u505a\u51fa\u63a8\u65b7\u6216\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u6234\u7740\u773c\u93e1\uff0c\u559c\u6b61\u8b80\u66f8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u548c\u8fb2\u6c11\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u662f\u524d\u8005\u800c\u975e\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u4ed6\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fb2\u6c11\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002 \u9019\u53ea\u662f\u773e\u591a\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u6bd4\u6bd4\u7686\u662f\u3002 \u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u82f1\u570b\u4e00\u4efd\u6709\u540d\u7684\u96dc\u8a8c\u66fe\u520a\u767b\u51fa\u4e00\u5247\u8a02\u95b1\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u4e0b3\u7a2e\u8a02\u95b1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb59\u7f8e\u5143 \uff082\uff09\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \uff083\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\u548c\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7368\u7279\u4e4b\u8655\u4e86\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8ca8\u54c1\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u8981\u50f9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63a8\u65b7\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u524d\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u65bc\u662f\u6253\u96fb\u8a71\u5411\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u8aee\u8a62\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u628a\u9019\u9078\u64c7\u5217\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u5f97\u8981\u9818\u3002 \u8a72\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b93\u5b78\u751f\u5f9e3\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u4e2d\u6311\u9078\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c16%\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u9918\u4e0b\u768484%\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u679c\u7136\u7121\u4eba\u937e\u610f\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u4ed6\u53c8\u627e\u4f86\u53e6\u4e00\u6279\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u53ea\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u6311\u9078\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u670968%\u7684\u4eba\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u53ea\u670932%\u7684\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff01\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u672c\u8eab\u96d6\u7136\u6beb\u7121\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u51fa\u73fe\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u53e6\u5916\u5169\u500b\u6709\u6548\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\uff01 \u9019\u4f8b\u5b50\u8aaa\u660e\u6211\u5011\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73fe\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u61c9\uff08framing effect\uff09\u3002 \u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u662f\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300c\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08overconfidence bias\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u627f\u64d4\u904e\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u8b39\u614e\u5730\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u627f\u64d4\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u300c\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08confirmation bias\uff09\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5c0b\u627e\u548c\u8a18\u4f4f\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u6709\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u5fd8\u8a18\u8207\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\u6216\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u91cd\u8996\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u800c\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u64da\u65b0\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u8abf\u6574\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\u300d\uff08loss aversion\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u640d\u5931\u7684\u53cd\u611f\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5c0d\u540c\u7b49\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u559c\u611b\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u640d\u5931\u6642\u904e\u65bc\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u3002 \u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6539\u9032\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u3002\u900f\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u548c\u7df4\u7fd2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u5011\u7684\u601d\u8003\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u907f\u514d\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 \u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 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\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u82f1\u570b\u4e00\u4efd\u6709\u540d\u7684\u96dc\u8a8c\u66fe\u520a\u767b\u51fa\u4e00\u5247\u8a02\u95b1\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u4e0b3\u7a2e\u8a02\u95b1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb59\u7f8e\u5143 \uff082\uff09\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \uff083\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\u548c\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7368\u7279\u4e4b\u8655\u4e86\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8ca8\u54c1\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u8981\u50f9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63a8\u65b7\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u524d\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u65bc\u662f\u6253\u96fb\u8a71\u5411\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u8aee\u8a62\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u628a\u9019\u9078\u64c7\u5217\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u5f97\u8981\u9818\u3002 \u8a72\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b93\u5b78\u751f\u5f9e3\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u4e2d\u6311\u9078\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c16%\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u9918\u4e0b\u768484%\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u679c\u7136\u7121\u4eba\u937e\u610f\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u4ed6\u53c8\u627e\u4f86\u53e6\u4e00\u6279\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u53ea\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u6311\u9078\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u670968%\u7684\u4eba\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u53ea\u670932%\u7684\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff01\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u672c\u8eab\u96d6\u7136\u6beb\u7121\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u51fa\u73fe\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u53e6\u5916\u5169\u500b\u6709\u6548\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\uff01 \u9019\u4f8b\u5b50\u8aaa\u660e\u6211\u5011\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73fe\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u61c9\uff08framing effect\uff09\u3002 \u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u662f\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300c\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08overconfidence bias\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u627f\u64d4\u904e\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u8b39\u614e\u5730\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u627f\u64d4\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u300c\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08confirmation bias\uff09\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5c0b\u627e\u548c\u8a18\u4f4f\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u6709\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u5fd8\u8a18\u8207\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\u6216\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u91cd\u8996\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u800c\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u64da\u65b0\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u8abf\u6574\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\u300d\uff08loss aversion\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u640d\u5931\u7684\u53cd\u611f\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5c0d\u540c\u7b49\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u559c\u611b\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u640d\u5931\u6642\u904e\u65bc\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u3002 \u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6539\u9032\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u3002\u900f\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u548c\u7df4\u7fd2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u5011\u7684\u601d\u8003\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u907f\u514d\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 \u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 \u8b80\u8005\u4e5f\u8a31\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5225\u80cc\u5f8c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u6709\u7740\u67d0\u7a2e\u6839\u6df1\u67e2\u56fa\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8af8\u5982\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u80cc\u666f\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u5be6\u539f\u56e0\u5176\u5be6\u5341\u5206\u7c21\u55ae\u3002\u4e39\u9ea54\u570b\u898f\u5b9a\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u570b\u6c11\u5fc5\u9808\u8868\u793a\u53c3\u8207\u624d\u7b97\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u7576\u4f5c\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\u8ad6\uff1b\u5176\u4ed6\u4e03\u570b\u5247\u898f\u5b9a\uff0c\u5176\u570b\u6c11\u5fc5\u9808\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u624d\u7b97\u4e0d\u53c3\u8207\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u7576\u4f5c\u53c3\u8207\u8ad6\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\u56b4\u8085\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u50c5\u50c5\u7531\u65bc\u8868\u683c\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u7d30\u5fae\u5dee\u5225\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u540c\u4e00\u554f\u984c\u7adf\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u300c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u300d\uff01 \u4e5f\u8a31\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5c0d\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\uff0c\u5c31\u9023\u5728\u8868\u683c\u4e0a\u6253\u500b\u920e\u7684\u6642\u9593\u90fd\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u82b1\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u65bc\u8868\u683c\u4e0a\u7684\u9ed8\u8a8d\u9078\u64c7\uff08default option\uff09\u6210\u70ba\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u89e3\u91cb\u5247\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e0a\u8ff0\u554f\u984c\u592a\u904e\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u60c5\u9858\u63a5\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9858\u81ea\u5df1\u601d\u7d22\uff08default option\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u70ba\u6709\u95dc\u7576\u5c40\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\uff09\u3002 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\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 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bias\uff09\u5247\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c0d\u985e\u5225\u5178\u578b\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u4f86\u505a\u51fa\u63a8\u65b7\u6216\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u6234\u7740\u773c\u93e1\uff0c\u559c\u6b61\u8b80\u66f8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u548c\u8fb2\u6c11\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u662f\u524d\u8005\u800c\u975e\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u4ed6\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fb2\u6c11\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u5716\u66f8\u7ba1\u7406\u54e1\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u300c\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002 \u9019\u53ea\u662f\u773e\u591a\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53d7\u5230\u8aa4\u5c0e\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u6bd4\u6bd4\u7686\u662f\u3002 \u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u82f1\u570b\u4e00\u4efd\u6709\u540d\u7684\u96dc\u8a8c\u66fe\u520a\u767b\u51fa\u4e00\u5247\u8a02\u95b1\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u4e0b3\u7a2e\u8a02\u95b1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a \uff081\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb59\u7f8e\u5143 \uff082\uff09\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \uff083\uff09\u7db2\u4e0a\u7248\u548c\u5370\u5237\u7248\uff1a\u5e74\u8cbb125\u7f8e\u5143 \u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7368\u7279\u4e4b\u8655\u4e86\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8ca8\u54c1\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u8981\u5c11\uff0c\u8981\u50f9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63a8\u65b7\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u524d\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u65bc\u662f\u6253\u96fb\u8a71\u5411\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u8aee\u8a62\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u628a\u9019\u9078\u64c7\u5217\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u5f97\u8981\u9818\u3002 \u8a72\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u8b93\u5b78\u751f\u5f9e3\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u4e2d\u6311\u9078\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c16%\u7684\u5b78\u751f\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u9918\u4e0b\u768484%\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u679c\u7136\u7121\u4eba\u937e\u610f\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u4ed6\u53c8\u627e\u4f86\u53e6\u4e00\u6279\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u53ea\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u6311\u9078\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u670968%\u7684\u4eba\u6311\u9078\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u53ea\u670932%\u7684\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u9078\u64c7\uff01\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9078\u64c7\u672c\u8eab\u96d6\u7136\u6beb\u7121\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u51fa\u73fe\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u53e6\u5916\u5169\u500b\u6709\u6548\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\uff01 \u9019\u4f8b\u5b50\u8aaa\u660e\u6211\u5011\u5728\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73fe\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u61c9\uff08framing effect\uff09\u3002 \u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5f71\u97ff \u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u662f\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300c\u904e\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08overconfidence bias\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u627f\u64d4\u904e\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u8b39\u614e\u5730\u8a55\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u627f\u64d4\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u300c\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08confirmation bias\uff09\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5c0b\u627e\u548c\u8a18\u4f4f\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u6709\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u5fd8\u8a18\u8207\u4e4b\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6211\u5011\u505a\u51fa\u57fa\u65bc\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\u6216\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u8a0a\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u904e\u5ea6\u91cd\u8996\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u5011\u6295\u8cc7\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u8996\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u800c\u5805\u6301\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u64da\u65b0\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\u8abf\u6574\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\u300d\uff08loss aversion\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u640d\u5931\u7684\u53cd\u611f\u9060\u5927\u65bc\u5c0d\u540c\u7b49\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u559c\u611b\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u640d\u5931\u6642\u904e\u65bc\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u932f\u904e\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u3002 \u7e3d\u7684\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e26\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6539\u9032\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u3002\u900f\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u548c\u7df4\u7fd2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u5011\u7684\u601d\u8003\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u907f\u514d\u9019\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u76f2\u9ede\u3002 \u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08 \u5018\u82e5\u8a02\u95b1\u96dc\u8a8c\u53ea\u662f\u7121\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u56b4\u8085\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b49\u5019\u5668\u5b98\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9644\u3010\u5716\u3011\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e8611\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u53c3\u8207\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u8d08\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u8d77\u76844\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e39\u9ea5\u3001\u8377\u862d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u660e\u986f\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5230\u4e09\u6210\uff08\u8377\u862d\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53f3\u908a\u7684\u4e03\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u537b\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ea6\u6709\u6709\u516b\u6210\u591a\uff08\u745e\u5178\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u570b\u5247\u66f4\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u5168\u6c11\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u5967\u5730\u5229\u4f5c\u70ba\u540c\u4e00\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff1b\u4e39\u9ea5\u548c\u745e\u5178\u540c\u662f\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4e5f\u61c9\u8a72\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u537b\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4e39\u9ea5\u7684\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u5206\u5225\u9060\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5967\u5730\u5229\u548c\u745e\u5178\u3002 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