{"id":194094,"date":"2023-07-27T09:50:09","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T01:50:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/?post_type=thought-leadership&#038;p=194094"},"modified":"2023-07-27T09:50:03","modified_gmt":"2023-07-27T01:50:03","slug":"reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2<\/h5>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf<\/h5>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996<\/h5>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-194106\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/TC-table-1024x278.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"190\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/TC-table-1024x278.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/TC-table-300x82.png 300w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/TC-table-768x209.png 768w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/TC-table.png 1192w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f<\/h5>\n<p>2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194094","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-hkej-column-tc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-tc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-27T01:50:09+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-27T01:50:03+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u9f8d\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\\u9f8d\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-tc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u7015\\u81e8\\u8ff7\\u5931\\u5341\\u5e74\\u7684\\u53cd\\u601d\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"\\u7015\\u81e8\\u8ff7\\u5931\\u5341\\u5e74\\u7684\\u53cd\\u601d\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u9f8d\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/\",\"name\":\"\\u7015\\u81e8\\u8ff7\\u5931\\u5341\\u5e74\\u7684\\u53cd\\u601d - HKU Business School\",\"description\":\"\\u7b2c\\u4e8c\\u6b21\\u5927\\u6230\\u904e\\u5f8c\\uff0c\\u570b\\u969b\\u793e\\u6703\\u6062\\u5fa9\\u5efa\\u8a2d\\uff1b\\u75311960\\u81f32020\\u5e74\\u9593\\uff0c\\u74b0\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u6bcf\\u5e74\\u589e\\u95773%\\u4ee5\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u4e16\\u754c\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u589e\\u9577\\u66f4\\u903e5%\\u3002\\u89c0\\u4e4e\\u6a19\\u666e500\\u6307\\u6578\\uff0c\\u9664\\u4e862018\\u5e74\\u5916\\uff0c\\u57282008\\u81f32022\\u5e74\\u671f\\u9593\\u6bcf\\u5e74\\u90fd\\u9304\\u5f97\\u5347\\u5e45\\u3002 \\u7576\\u524d\\u4e16\\u754c\\u5404\\u5730\\u6b63\\u9678\\u7e8c\\u8d70\\u51fa\\u65b0\\u51a0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u7684\\u56f0\\u5883\\uff0c\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u524d\\u666f\\u5c07\\u6703\\u5982\\u4f55\\uff1f\\u672c\\u5e741\\u6708\\u5e95\\uff0c\\u570b\\u969b\\u8ca8\\u5e63\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7d44\\u7e54\\u5728\\u5176\\u300a\\u4e16\\u754c\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5c55\\u671b\\u5831\\u544a\\u300b\\u4e2d\\u9810\\u6e2c\\uff0c\\u672a\\u4f865\\u5e74\\u74b0\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5e73\\u5747\\u589e\\u9577\\u7387\\u53ea\\u67093%\\uff0c\\u4f4e\\u65bc1990\\u5e74\\u4ee3\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\u7684\\u4e2d\\u671f\\u589e\\u9577\\u9810\\u6e2c\\uff1b\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5247\\u65bc\\u672c\\u5e74\\u5e74\\u5e95\\u9677\\u65bc\\u8870\\u9000\\uff0c\\u660e\\u5e74\\u74b0\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5f88\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5927\\u5e45\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u800c\\u9010\\u6f38\\u6b65\\u5411\\u8870\\u9000\\u3002 \\u74b0\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5448\\u73fe\\u5f31\\u52e2 \\u6839\\u64da\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u6280\\u8853\\u6027\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u5b9a\\u7fa9\\uff0c\\u5373\\u672c\\u5730\\u751f\\u7522\\u7e3d\\u503c\\uff08GDP\\uff09\\u9023\\u7e8c\\u5169\\u500b\\u5b63\\u5ea6\\u9304\\u5f97\\u840e\\u7e2e\\uff0c\\u81ea1945\\u5e74\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\u767c\\u751f\\u4e865\\u6b21\\u3002\\u6700\\u8fd1\\u5169\\u6b21\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u90fd\\u6e90\\u65bc\\u975e\\u5e38\\u5177\\u9ad4\\u7684\\u56e0\\u7d20\\uff1a2009\\u5e74\\u7531\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u6b21\\u7d1a\\u62b5\\u62bc\\u8cb8\\u6b3e\\u5e02\\u5834\\u5d29\\u6f70\\u5f15\\u767c\\uff1b2020\\u5e74\\u5247\\u6b78\\u56e0\\u65bc\\u65b0\\u51a0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u8086\\u8650\\u3002\\u65e9\\u65bc1975\\u5e74\\u548c1979\\u5e74\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\uff0c\\u540c\\u6a23\\u7531\\u77f3\\u6cb9\\u50f9\\u683c\\u885d\\u64ca\\u6240\\u9020\\u6210\\u3002\\u4e8b\\u5be6\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u6b77\\u6b21\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u4e3b\\u56e0\\u4e0d\\u96e2\\u5546\\u54c1\\u6210\\u672c\\u6216\\u80fd\\u6e90\\u50f9\\u683c\\u4e0a\\u6f32\\u3002\\u5728\\u767c\\u9054\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u4e2d\\uff0c\\u901a\\u8139\\u5fc5\\u7136\\u63a8\\u9ad8\\u501f\\u8cb8\\u6210\\u672c\\u3002\\u5404\\u570b\\u592e\\u884c\\u7684\\u7576\\u52d9\\u4e4b\\u6025\\uff0c\\u662f\\u5728\\u63a7\\u5236\\u901a\\u8139\\u548c\\u964d\\u4f4e\\u4f01\\u696d\\u501f\\u8cb8\\u6210\\u672c\\u4e4b\\u9593\\u53d6\\u5f97\\u5e73\\u8861\\uff0c\\u504f\\u504f\\u5728\\u9762\\u81e8\\u8870\\u9000\\u5a01\\u8105\\u4e4b\\u969b\\uff0c\\u8981\\u63a7\\u5236\\u50f9\\u683c\\u589e\\u9577\\u800c\\u4e0d\\u62db\\u81f4\\u91cd\\u5927\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u640d\\u5931\\uff0c\\u537b\\u662f\\u96e3\\u4e0a\\u52a0\\u96e3\\u3002 2023\\u5e74\\u767c\\u9054\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u589e\\u9577\\u6025\\u5287\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u4ee4\\u4eba\\u64d4\\u6182\\u3002\\u7f8e\\u570bGDP \\u7684\\u589e\\u9577\\u7387\\u5c07\\u5f9e\\u53bb\\u5e742%\\u653e\\u7de9\\u81f31.4%\\uff0c\\u6b50\\u7f85\\u5340\\u7684GDP\\u589e\\u5e45\\u66f4\\u5f9e\\u53bb\\u5e74\\u76843.5%\\u4e0b\\u6ed1\\u81f30.7%\\u3002\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u4e0a\\u534a\\u5e74\\u5728\\u75ab\\u5f8c\\u91cd\\u65b0\\u958b\\u653e\\uff0c\\u5c07\\u662f\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u5168\\u7403\\u70ba\\u6578\\u4e0d\\u591a\\u9006\\u52e2\\u8d70\\u5f37\\u7684\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\uff0cGDP\\u589e\\u5e45\\u53ef\\u671b\\u5f9e\\u53bb\\u5e74\\u76843%\\u53cd\\u5f48\\u81f35.2%\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u898b\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u4e0d\\u6703\\u5c0d\\u6240\\u6709\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u9020\\u6210\\u76f8\\u540c\\u6253\\u64ca\\u3002 \\u5e74\\u5167\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u539f\\u56e0\\u4f55\\u5728\\uff1f\\u5927\\u81f4\\u4e0a\\u4f86\\u81ea\\u56db\\u5927\\u7bc4\\u7587\\uff1a\\u4e00\\u3001\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u93c8\\u65b7\\u88c2\\uff1b\\u4e8c\\u3001\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u671f\\u9593\\u6b50\\u7f8e\\u65bd\\u884c\\u91cf\\u5316\\u5bec\\u9b06\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u4e0d\\u505c\\u5370\\u9214\\u4ee4\\u5e02\\u5834\\u4e0a\\u8cc7\\u91d1\\u904e\\u76db\\uff0c\\u8cc7\\u7522\\u50f9\\u683c\\u98c6\\u5347\\uff0c\\u5c0e\\u81f4\\u901a\\u8139\\uff1b\\u52a0\\u4e0a\\u5404\\u570b\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u52a0\\u606f\\uff0c\\u5c24\\u5176\\u662f\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7f55\\u898b\\u7684\\u6fc0\\u9032\\u52a0\\u606f\\u63aa\\u65bd\\uff0c\\u66f4\\u76f4\\u63a5\\u885d\\u64ca\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\uff1b\\u4e09\\u3001\\u4fc4\\u70cf\\u6230\\u706b\\u4e0d\\u65b7\\uff0c\\u4ee4\\u80fd\\u6e90\\u53ca\\u7ce7\\u98df\\u50f9\\u683c\\u5c45\\u9ad8\\u4e0d\\u4e0b\\uff1b\\u56db\\u3001\\u6614\\u65e5\\u4f5c\\u70ba\\u4e16\\u754c\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u300c\\u706b\\u8eca\\u982d\\u300d\\u7684\\u4e2d\\u570b\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u5c01\\u95dc\\u6578\\u5e74\\uff0c\\u800c\\u672a\\u80fd\\u6e1b\\u7de9\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u885d\\u64ca\\u3002\\u73fe\\u6642\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u52a0\\u606f\\u53ea\\u80fd\\u61c9\\u4ed8\\u6709\\u95dc\\u9700\\u6c42\\u7684\\u554f\\u984c\\uff0c\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u65b9\\u9762\\u537b\\u6beb\\u7121\\u4f5c\\u7528\\uff0c\\u662f\\u4ee5\\u901a\\u8139\\u4e0b\\u964d\\u901f\\u5ea6\\u7de9\\u6162\\uff1b\\u4e0b\\u534a\\u5e74\\u6216\\u4ecd\\u9808\\u8abf\\u9ad8\\u5229\\u7387\\uff0c\\u52e2\\u5c07\\u5f71\\u97ff\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u3002 \\u96d6\\u7136\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u901a\\u8139\\u5df2\\u6f38\\u898b\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u91d1\\u878d\\u5e02\\u5834\\u53d7\\u5230\\u91cd\\u5275\\uff0c\\u6216\\u6703\\u56b4\\u91cd\\u62d6\\u6162\\u8a72\\u570b\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u7684\\u589e\\u9577\\u6b65\\u4f10\\u3002\\u907f\\u96aa\\u9700\\u6c42\\u63d0\\u5347\\u53ca\\u9ad8\\u606f\\u6240\\u5e36\\u4f86\\u7684\\u5229\\u5dee\\u4ea4\\u6613\\uff0c\\u4ea6\\u57282022\\u5e74\\u5e36\\u52d5\\u7f8e\\u532f\\u6307\\u6578\\u5275\\u4e0b20\\u5e74\\u4f86\\u65b0\\u9ad8\\uff0c\\u81f3\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u624d\\u9010\\u6b65\\u56de\\u7a69\\u3002\\u96a8\\u7740\\u5229\\u5dee\\u958b\\u59cb\\u6536\\u7a84\\uff0c\\u90e8\\u5206\\u8cc7\\u91d1\\u53ef\\u671b\\u6d41\\u5411\\u7f8e\\u5143\\u4ee5\\u5916\\u7684\\u8ca8\\u5e63\\u3002 \\u63d0\\u632f\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u6709\\u5229\\u7d93\\u6fdf \\u96d6\\u7136\\u9023\\u756a\\u52a0\\u606f\\u8db3\\u4ee5\\u63a7\\u5236\\u901a\\u8139\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u4e5f\\u5f71\\u97ff\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7684\\u8cfc\\u8cb7\\u529b\\uff0c\\u4f01\\u696d\\u53bb\\u5eab\\u5b58\\u4e0d\\u6613\\uff0c\\u4e14\\u56e0\\u501f\\u8cb8\\u6210\\u672c\\u4e0a\\u5347\\u800c\\u6e1b\\u5c11\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u898f\\u6a21\\uff0c\\u9032\\u800c\\u4ee4GDP\\u4e0b\\u964d\\uff0c\\u4e26\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u3002\\u6839\\u64da\\u806f\\u90a6\\u5132\\u5099\\u5c402022\\u5e7411\\u6708\\u6703\\u8b70\\u7d00\\u9304\\u986f\\u793a\\uff0c\\u53d7\\u5230\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u8005\\u652f\\u51fa\\u548c\\u4e16\\u754c\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u653e\\u7de9\\u7b49\\u5f71\\u97ff\\uff0c2023\\u5e74\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u9677\\u5165\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u6a5f\\u6703\\u7387\\u4e0a\\u5347\\u81f3\\u8fd150%\\u3002\\u6839\\u64da\\u4e00\\u822c\\u7528\\u4f5c\\u8861\\u91cf\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u6307\\u6a19\\uff0c\\u4e0a\\u6708\\u7f8e\\u570b2\\u5e74\\u671f\\u820710\\u5e74\\u671f\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u50b5\\u5238\\u6b96\\u5229\\u7387\\u5229\\u5dee\\u64f4\\u5927\\u81f397\\u500b\\u57fa\\u9ede\\uff0c\\u70ba1981\\u5e74\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\u7684\\u9802\\u5cf0\\u3002 \\u77ed\\u671f\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u50b5\\u5238\\u6b96\\u5229\\u7387\\u9ad8\\u65bc\\u9577\\u671f\\u6b96\\u5229\\u7387\\u7684\\u73fe\\u8c61\\u5df2\\u7dad\\u6301\\u7d04\\u4e00\\u5e74\\uff0c\\u5728\\u904e\\u53bb\\u534a\\u4e16\\u7d00\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\uff0c\\u6bcf\\u6b21\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u6b96\\u5229\\u7387\\u66f2\\u7dda\\u5012\\u639b\\u73fe\\u8c61\\u5f8c\\u768412\\u523018\\u500b\\u6708\\uff0c\\u5c31\\u6703\\u767c\\u751f\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u3002 \\u5fa9\\u7526\\u96b1\\u6182\\u4e0d\\u5bb9\\u5ffd\\u8996 \\u6b64\\u5916\\uff0c\\u300c\\u505c\\u6eef\\u6027\\u901a\\u8139\\u300d\\uff08stagflation\\uff09\\u4e5f\\u662f\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u73fe\\u8c61\\u3002\\u96d6\\u7136\\u73fe\\u6642\\u5728\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u93c8\\u7de9\\u89e3\\u3001\\u9700\\u6c42\\u6e1b\\u5f31\\u7684\\u60c5\\u6cc1\\u4e0b\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u901a\\u8139\\u58d3\\u529b\\u7565\\u6e1b\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u53d7\\u5230\\u79df\\u91d1\\u548c\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u4e0d\\u65b7\\u589e\\u9577\\u7684\\u5f71\\u97ff\\uff0c\\u670d\\u52d9\\u4f01\\u696d\\u6240\\u627f\\u53d7\\u7684\\u901a\\u8139\\u58d3\\u529b\\u4ecd\\u5927\\uff0c\\u300c\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u548c\\u7269\\u50f9\\u87ba\\u65cb\\u4e0a\\u5347\\u300d\\uff08wage-pricespiral\\uff09\\u73fe\\u8c61\\u66f4\\u662f\\u5e02\\u5834\\u5927\\u5fcc\\u3002\\u82e5\\u589e\\u9577\\u653e\\u7de9\\u3001\\u5931\\u696d\\u7387\\u9ad8\\u4f01\\uff0c\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u537b\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u5411\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u5247\\u505c\\u6eef\\u6027\\u901a\\u8139\\u7684\\u98a8\\u96aa\\u5c07\\u6703\\u589e\\u52a0\\uff0c\\u4ea6\\u6210\\u70ba\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u7684\\u5224\\u65b7\\u6027\\u6307\\u6a19\\u3002\\u76ee\\u524d\\u6700\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u7684\\u662f\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u9762\\u901a\\u8139\\u3002\\u5728\\u6b64\\u60c5\\u6cc1\\u4e0b\\uff0c\\u52de\\u52d5\\u5e02\\u5834\\u6703\\u4fdd\\u6301\\u5f37\\u52c1\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u5247\\u504f\\u9ad8\\uff0c\\u63a8\\u9ad8\\u4f01\\u696d\\u6210\\u672c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u7522\\u54c1\\u3001\\u670d\\u52d9\\u50f9\\u683c\\uff0c\\u5c0e\\u81f4\\u901a\\u8139\\u52a0\\u5287\\uff1b\\u5e02\\u5834\\u9700\\u900f\\u904e\\u66f4\\u9032\\u53d6\\u7684\\u52a0\\u606f\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u904f\\u6291\\u901a\\u8139\\u3002 \\u5176\\u6b21\\u8f03\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u7684\\u662f\\u300c\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u53cd\\u5f48\\u300d\\uff0c\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u652f\\u51fa\\u53ca\\u5132\\u84c4\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u6703\\u9ad8\\u65bc\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u671f\\u9593\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\uff0c\\u52a9\\u9577\\u901a\\u8139\\u4e4b\\u9918\\uff0c\\u540c\\u6642\\u5c0d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u7522\\u751f\\u6b63\\u9762\\u6548\\u61c9\\u3002\\u7b46\\u8005\\u9810\\u671f\\u74b0\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5be6\\u73fe\\u8edf\\u7740\\u9678\\uff0c\\u4ea6\\u5373\\u589e\\u9577\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u8f15\\u5fae\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u52de\\u52d5\\u5e02\\u5834\\u53c3\\u8207\\u7387\\u4ea6\\u53cd\\u5f48\\u3002\\u96a8\\u7740\\u751f\\u7522\\u529b\\u589e\\u52a0\\uff0c\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u4e0d\\u6703\\u9ad8\\u65bc\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u9762\\u901a\\u8139\\uff1b\\u6574\\u9ad4\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u751f\\u7522\\u529b\\u63d0\\u5347\\uff0c\\u5c07\\u6703\\u60e0\\u53ca\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u3002 \\u7f8e\\u570b\\u3001\\u6b50\\u7f85\\u5340\\u548c\\u82f1\\u570b\\u7684\\u653f\\u5ba2\\u66fe\\u7d93\\u547c\\u7c72\\u592e\\u884c\\u6e1b\\u6162\\u52a0\\u606f\\u6b65\\u4f10\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\uff0c\\u5728\\u901a\\u8139\\u7387\\u4ecd\\u7136\\u9ad8\\u65bc\\u76ee\\u6a19\\u7684\\u74b0\\u5883\\uff0c\\u592e\\u884c\\u6709\\u7fa9\\u52d9\\u7e7c\\u7e8c\\u52a0\\u606f\\uff0c\\u4e26\\u4fdd\\u6301\\u8f03\\u9ad8\\u7684\\u501f\\u8cb8\\u6210\\u672c\\u3002\\u5e78\\u800c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8868\\u73fe\\u57282023\\u5e74\\u4e0a\\u534a\\u5e74\\u52dd\\u65bc\\u5e02\\u5834\\u9810\\u671f\\uff0c\\u52de\\u52d5\\u5e02\\u5834\\u9760\\u7a69\\uff0c\\u610f\\u5473\\u7740\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u529b\\u8f03\\u5f37\\uff0c\\u6709\\u5229\\u65bc\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u3002\\u53e6\\u4e00\\u65b9\\u9762\\uff0c\\u5229\\u7387\\u4f9d\\u7136\\u8655\\u65bc5%\\u4ee5\\u4e0a\\u6c34\\u5e73\\uff0c\\u501f\\u8cb8\\u6210\\u672c\\u4e0d\\u83f2\\uff08\\u5982\\u6a13\\u5b87\\u6309\\u63ed\\uff09\\uff0c\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u5c07\\u76e1\\u91cf\\u63a7\\u5236\\u652f\\u51fa\\uff0c\\u4e0d\\u5229\\u65bc\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u3002\\u7b46\\u8005\\u8a8d\\u70ba\\u652f\\u51fa\\u6e1b\\u5c11\\u53ca\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u4e0b\\u964d\\uff0c\\u5c07\\u4ee4\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5728\\u672c\\u5e74\\u5e74\\u5e95\\u958b\\u59cb\\u6536\\u7e2e\\uff0c\\u4e26\\u4e14\\u8655\\u65bc\\u76f8\\u5c0d\\u6eab\\u548c\\u7684\\u8870\\u9000\\u74b0\\u5883\\u3002\\u5118\\u7ba1\\u5982\\u6b64\\uff0c\\u5c46\\u6642\\u806f\\u5132\\u5c40\\u61c9\\u6709\\u80fd\\u529b\\u5c07\\u5229\\u7387\\u964d\\u4f4e25\\u500b\\u57fa\\u9ede\\uff0c2024\\u5e74\\u606f\\u7387\\u6709\\u671b\\u56de\\u843d\\u81f33.5%\\uff0c\\u800c\\u64fa\\u812b\\u8870\\u9000\\u56f0\\u5c40\\u3002 2023\\u5e743\\u6708\\uff0c\\u4e16\\u754c\\u9280\\u884c\\u767c\\u8868\\u5831\\u544a\\u6307\\u51fa\\uff0c\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5c07\\u7d93\\u6b77\\u300c\\u8ff7\\u5931\\u5341\\u5e74\\u300d\\uff0c\\u9810\\u6e2c2022\\u81f32030\\u5e74\\u7684\\u6f5b\\u5728\\u5e74\\u5747\\u589e\\u9577\\u7387\\u70ba2.2%\\uff0c\\u662f30\\u5e74\\u4f86\\u6700\\u4f4e\\uff1b\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u5148\\u9032\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u5e74\\u5747\\u589e\\u9577\\u7387\\u90541.2%\\uff0c\\u65b0\\u8208\\u8207\\u767c\\u5c55\\u4e2d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u5247\\u70ba4%\\u3010\\u8868\\u3011\\u3002 \\u5831\\u544a\\u5206\\u6790\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u653e\\u7de9\\u7684\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u539f\\u56e0\\u662f\\u751f\\u7522\\u529b\\u589e\\u9577\\u75b2\\u5f31\\uff0c\\u9019\\u8da8\\u52e2\\u56e0\\u65b0\\u51a0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u548c\\u4fc4\\u70cf\\u6230\\u722d\\u800c\\u52a0\\u5287\\uff0c\\u751f\\u7522\\u529b\\u589e\\u9577\\u6216\\u6703\\u662f2000\\u5e74\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\u7684\\u6700\\u6162\\u901f\\u5ea6\\u3002\\u751f\\u7522\\u529b\\u662f\\u6536\\u5165\\u548c\\u85aa\\u91d1\\u589e\\u9577\\u7684\\u95dc\\u9375\\u3002\\u5168\\u7403\\u52de\\u52d5\\u529b\\u8001\\u5316\\u662f21\\u4e16\\u7d00\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u554f\\u984c\\u7684\\u4e00\\u5927\\u6311\\u6230\\u3002\\u5728\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u5357\\u97d3\\u7b49\\u5feb\\u901f\\u8001\\u9f61\\u5316\\u7684\\u570b\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u7531\\u65bc\\u7f3a\\u4e4f\\u5e74\\u8f15\\u52de\\u52d5\\u529b\\uff0c\\u5df2\\u7d93\\u62d6\\u7d2f\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u524d\\u666f\\u3002\\u5728\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u3001\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u548c\\u591a\\u500b\\u6b50\\u6d32\\u570b\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u6108\\u4f86\\u6108\\u591a\\u52de\\u52d5\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u5df2\\u5c46\\u9000\\u4f11\\u5e74\\u9f61\\uff0c\\u537b\\u7f3a\\u4e4f\\u5e74\\u8f15\\u4e00\\u4ee3\\u52a0\\u4ee5\\u88dc\\u5145\\u3002 \\u4eba\\u53e3\\u8001\\u5316\\u5f15\\u767c\\u5c0d\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u9810\\u7b97\\u7dca\\u7e2e\\u7684\\u6182\\u616e\\uff0c\\u6cd5\\u570b\\u9000\\u4f11\\u5236\\u5ea6\\u6539\\u9769\\u65b9\\u6848\\u906d\\u5230\\u6c11\\u773e\\u62b5\\u5236\\u548c\\u6297\\u8b70\\u3002\\u57fa\\u65bc\\u5df2\\u767c\\u5c55\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u548c\\u767c\\u5c55\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u8001\\u5316\\uff0c\\u5168\\u7403\\u52de\\u52d5\\u529b\\u589e\\u9577\\u7de9\\u6162\\uff0c\\u65b0\\u51a0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u9020\\u6210\\u7684\\u5168\\u7403\\u5152\\u7ae5\\u5b78\\u7fd2\\u640d\\u5931\\u9810\\u8a08\\u5c07\\u5c0d\\u4eba\\u529b\\u8cc7\\u6e90\\u9020\\u6210\\u66f4\\u5927\\u62d6\\u7d2f\\u3002\\u4e0d\\u904e\\u4e16\\u754c\\u9280\\u884c\\u5efa\\u8b70\\uff0c\\u96d6\\u7136\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u589e\\u9577\\u901f\\u5ea6\\u6b63\\u5728\\u4e0b\\u964d\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u53ef\\u4ee5\\u900f\\u904e\\u9f13\\u52f5\\u975e\\u52de\\u52d5\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u5de5\\u4f5c\\u3001\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u751f\\u7522\\u7387\\u548c\\u52a0\\u5feb\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u7684\\u653f\\u7b56\\u52a0\\u4ee5\\u6539\\u5584\\u3002 \\u9999\\u6e2f\\u9084\\u9808\\u81ea\\u5f37\\u4e0d\\u606f 2023\\u5e74\\u521d\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7684\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8868\\u73fe\\u6bd4\\u5e02\\u5834\\u9810\\u671f\\u7406\\u60f3\\uff0c\\u76f8\\u4fe1\\u80fd\\u4fdd\\u6301\\u826f\\u597d\\u589e\\u9577\\u5230\\u5e74\\u5e95\\u3002\\u76f8\\u6bd4\\u4e4b\\u4e0b\\uff0c\\u5927\\u90e8\\u5206\\u65b0\\u8208\\u5e02\\u5834\\u6b63\\u9762\\u5c0d\\u4f4e\\u589e\\u9577\\u53ca\\u9ad8\\u5229\\u7387\\u74b0\\u5883\\u7684\\u6311\\u6230\\u3002\\u904e\\u53bb\\u4e00\\u5e74\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u52a0\\u606f\\u5df2\\u5c0d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u6d3b\\u52d5\\u9020\\u6210\\u640d\\u5931\\uff0c\\u9810\\u6e2c\\u65b0\\u8208\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7684\\u589e\\u9577\\u7387\\u5c07\\u75312023\\u5e74\\u76844.4%\\u964d\\u81f32024\\u5e74\\u76843.9%\\u3002\\u4e0d\\u904e\\uff0c\\u65b0\\u8208\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7684\\u901a\\u8139\\u7387\\u6b63\\u9010\\u6b65\\u56de\\u843d\\uff0c\\u592e\\u884c\\u5c07\\u65bc\\u4e0b\\u534a\\u5e74\\u958b\\u59cb\\u6e1b\\u606f\\uff0c\\u85c9\\u4ee5\\u6539\\u55842024\\u5e74\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u524d\\u666f\\u3002 \\u9999\\u6e2f\\u61c9\\u5c0d\\u5916\\u570d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9006?\\u7684\\u689d\\u4ef6\\u8f03\\u9130\\u8fd1\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u6709\\u5229\\uff0c\\u5728\\u80cc\\u9760\\u7956\\u570b\\u878d\\u5165\\u7cb5\\u6e2f\\u6fb3\\u5927\\u7063\\u5340\\u7684\\u540c\\u6642\\uff0c\\u66f4\\u61c9\\u767c\\u63ee\\u300c\\u4e00\\u570b\\u5169\\u5236\\u300d\\u7684\\u512a\\u52e2\\uff0c\\u7a81\\u986f\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u591a\\u5143\\u5316\\u767c\\u5c55\\uff0c\\u5f9e\\u800c\\u7a4d\\u6975\\u5f15\\u9032\\u5916\\u8cc7\\u3002\\u501f\\u52a9\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u5728\\u5168\\u7403\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u3001\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u7684\\u5f71\\u97ff\\u529b\\uff0c\\u66f4\\u8981\\u52a0\\u5f37\\u8207\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u570b\\u5bb6\\uff08\\u5c24\\u5176\\u662f\\u6771\\u5357\\u4e9e\\u3001\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u5357\\u97d3\\u548c\\u4e2d\\u6771\\uff09\\u7684\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u95dc\\u4fc2\\uff0c\\u9032\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u978f\\u56fa\\u9999\\u6e2f\\u7684\\u570b\\u969b\\u5927\\u90fd\\u6703\\u5730\\u4f4d\\u3002 \\u8b1d\\u570b\\u751f\\u535a\\u58eb \\u6e2f\\u5927\\u7d93\\u7ba1\\u5b78\\u9662\\u91d1\\u878d\\u5b78\\u9996\\u5e2d\\u8b1b\\u5e2b \\u4f55\\u654f\\u6dd9\\u5148\\u751f \\u9999\\u6e2f\\u5927\\u5b78\\u9644\\u5c6c\\u5b78\\u9662\\u8b1b\\u5e2b \\uff08\\u672c\\u6587\\u540c\\u6642\\u65bc\\u4e8c\\u96f6\\u4e8c\\u4e09\\u5e74\\u4e03\\u6708\\u4e8c\\u5341\\u516d\\u65e5\\u8f09\\u65bc\\u300a\\u4fe1\\u5831\\u300b\\u300c\\u9f8d\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\\u300d\\u5c08\\u6b04\\uff09\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-HK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-27T09:50:09+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-07-27T09:50:03+08:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-HK\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#organization\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School","description":"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"google-site-verification":"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo","miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/#listItem","name":"\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/#listItem","name":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/#listItem","name":"\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b"}}]},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization","name":"HKU Business School","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/","name":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School","description":"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-HK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2023-07-27T09:50:09+08:00","dateModified":"2023-07-27T09:50:03+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-HK","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School","og:description":"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/","article:published_time":"2023-07-27T01:50:09+00:00","article:modified_time":"2023-07-27T01:50:03+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6230\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\u5efa\u8a2d\uff1b\u75311960\u81f32020\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u95773%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u589e\u9577\u66f4\u903e5%\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9664\u4e862018\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u57282008\u81f32022\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u9304\u5f97\u5347\u5e45\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6b63\u9678\u7e8c\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5c07\u6703\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u672c\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u5176\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u672a\u4f865\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ea\u67093%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5247\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u9677\u65bc\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u800c\u9010\u6f38\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5448\u73fe\u5f31\u52e2 \u6839\u64da\u7d93\u6fdf\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u9304\u5f97\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u81ea1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u4e865\u6b21\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5169\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u90fd\u6e90\u65bc\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a2009\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u7d1a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u6f70\u5f15\u767c\uff1b2020\u5e74\u5247\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u8086\u8650\u3002\u65e9\u65bc1975\u5e74\u548c1979\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u7531\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6240\u9020\u6210\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b77\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u4e0d\u96e2\u5546\u54c1\u6210\u672c\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u5728\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u5fc5\u7136\u63a8\u9ad8\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u504f\u504f\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u8870\u9000\u5a01\u8105\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u50f9\u683c\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4e0d\u62db\u81f4\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\u3002 2023\u5e74\u767c\u9054\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u589e\u9577\u6025\u5287\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u7f8e\u570bGDP \u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e742%\u653e\u7de9\u81f31.4%\uff0c\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u7684GDP\u589e\u5e45\u66f4\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843.5%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f30.7%\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u75ab\u5f8c\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u70ba\u6578\u4e0d\u591a\u9006\u52e2\u8d70\u5f37\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff0cGDP\u589e\u5e45\u53ef\u671b\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u53cd\u5f48\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u540c\u6253\u64ca\u3002 \u5e74\u5167\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u4f86\u81ea\u56db\u5927\u7bc4\u7587\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u65b7\u88c2\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u6b50\u7f8e\u65bd\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u505c\u5370\u9214\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cc7\u91d1\u904e\u76db\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u52a0\u4e0a\u5404\u570b\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7f55\u898b\u7684\u6fc0\u9032\u52a0\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u706b\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u7ce7\u98df\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff1b\u56db\u3001\u6614\u65e5\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u706b\u8eca\u982d\u300d\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5c01\u95dc\u6578\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u80fd\u6e1b\u7de9\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u606f\u53ea\u80fd\u61c9\u4ed8\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u65b9\u9762\u537b\u6beb\u7121\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7de9\u6162\uff1b\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4ecd\u9808\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u52e2\u5c07\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5df2\u6f38\u898b\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u56b4\u91cd\u62d6\u6162\u8a72\u570b\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u5347\u53ca\u9ad8\u606f\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ea6\u57282022\u5e74\u5e36\u52d5\u7f8e\u532f\u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b20\u5e74\u4f86\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u624d\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a69\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u5229\u5dee\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u8cc7\u91d1\u53ef\u671b\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002 \u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u6709\u5229\u7d93\u6fdf \u96d6\u7136\u9023\u756a\u52a0\u606f\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u53bb\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u4e14\u56e0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u6295\u8cc7\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4ee4GDP\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6839\u64da\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c402022\u5e7411\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c2023\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u8fd150%\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b2\u5e74\u671f\u820710\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u81f397\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba1981\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9802\u5cf0\u3002 \u77ed\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u5df2\u7dad\u6301\u7d04\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u5f8c\u768412\u523018\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u5fa9\u7526\u96b1\u6182\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u73fe\u6642\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7de9\u89e3\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u7565\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u5230\u79df\u91d1\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5927\uff0c\u300c\u85aa\u91d1\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\uff08wage-pricespiral\uff09\u73fe\u8c61\u66f4\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u5fcc\u3002\u82e5\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u537b\u6301\u7e8c\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5247\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8139\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ea6\u6210\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4f46\u85aa\u91d1\u5247\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f01\u696d\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u52a0\u5287\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u900f\u904e\u66f4\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u662f\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5132\u84c4\u6bd4\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7522\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u74b0\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u8edf\u7740\u9678\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u8f15\u5fae\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u7387\u4ea6\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u85aa\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u9762\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u60e0\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u6b50\u7f85\u5340\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u66fe\u7d93\u547c\u7c72\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u4fdd\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5e78\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u57282023\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u52dd\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u9760\u7a69\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u8cbb\u529b\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f9d\u7136\u8655\u65bc5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u83f2\uff08\u5982\u6a13\u5b87\u6309\u63ed\uff09\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u5c07\u76e1\u91cf\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u5c11\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u958b\u59cb\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u61c9\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e25\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c2024\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u6709\u671b\u56de\u843d\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u64fa\u812b\u8870\u9000\u56f0\u5c40\u3002 2023\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u767c\u8868\u5831\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u7d93\u6b77\u300c\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u300d\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c2022\u81f32030\u5e74\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba2.2%\uff0c\u662f30\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u5148\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u9577\u7387\u90541.2%\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u70ba4%\u3010\u8868\u3011\u3002 \u5831\u544a\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u8da8\u52e2\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u4fc4\u70cf\u6230\u722d\u800c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u9577\u6216\u6703\u662f2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u6162\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u751f\u7522\u529b\u662f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u85aa\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u8001\u5316\u662f21\u4e16\u7d00\u4eba\u53e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u7b49\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u591a\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5df2\u5c46\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f61\uff0c\u537b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5e74\u8f15\u4e00\u4ee3\u52a0\u4ee5\u88dc\u5145\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5f15\u767c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u9810\u7b97\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9000\u4f11\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u906d\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u6297\u8b70\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5152\u7ae5\u5b78\u7fd2\u640d\u5931\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5c0d\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u904e\u9f13\u52f5\u975e\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u548c\u52a0\u5feb\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a0\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u9084\u9808\u81ea\u5f37\u4e0d\u606f 2023\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u589e\u9577\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4f4e\u589e\u9577\u53ca\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u75312023\u5e74\u76844.4%\u964d\u81f32024\u5e74\u76843.9%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u6539\u55842024\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u61c9\u5c0d\u5916\u570d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9006?\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u8f03\u9130\u8fd1\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5728\u80cc\u9760\u7956\u570b\u878d\u5165\u7cb5\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5927\u7063\u5340\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u66f4\u61c9\u767c\u63ee\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u7684\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u7a81\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u5143\u5316\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7a4d\u6975\u5f15\u9032\u5916\u8cc7\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97d3\u548c\u4e2d\u6771\uff09\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u978f\u56fa\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5927\u90fd\u6703\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9\u5148\u751f \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u516d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"194094","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":[],"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":[],"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"WebPage","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":0,"ai":null,"created":"2023-07-26 02:10:14","updated":"2023-07-27 01:51:49","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/\" title=\"\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\">\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/"},{"label":"\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-tc\/"},{"label":"\u7015\u81e8\u8ff7\u5931\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53cd\u601d","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/reflections-on-the-brink-of-a-lost-decade\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/194094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/194094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":194163,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/194094\/revisions\/194163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}