\u7576\u524d\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4e00\u59822008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9700\u9760\u592e\u884c\u9577\u671f\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u30022020\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\uff08\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff09\u628a\u5229\u7387\u75311.75\u5398\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u81f30.25\u5398\uff0c\u4e26\u63a8\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u62ef\u6551\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u901a\u8139\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u64f4\u5f35\u6027\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u6709\u6240\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65bc\u672c\u5e746\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u8b70\u606f\u7d50\u679c\uff0c0\u5398\u81f30.25\u5398\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u5df2\u5c31\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cc7\u7522\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8a08\u5283\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5f37\u5316\u5916\u754c\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cb7\u50b5\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u54e1\u9810\u8a08\u57282023\u5e74\u524d\u6703\u52a0\u606f\u81f3\u5c11\u5169\u6b21\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u5be6\u969b\u6700\u65e9\u6703\u57282022\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u52a0\u606f\u9810\u671f\u63d0\u524d\u81f32023\u5e74\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u66f4\u70ba\u7a69\u56fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4ea6\u5c07\u6703\u9577\u671f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c4018\u540d\u6210\u54e1\u4e2d\u67097\u540d\u9810\u671f\u5c40\u65b9\u6703\u57282022\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u7d93\u6fdf\u5168\u9762\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u65e5\u6f38\u52a0\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n
\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u7dad\u6301\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u5be6\u73fe2%\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u5be6\u73fe\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u3002\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u90545.4%\uff0c\u662f1991\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u5347\u5e45\u3002\u91dd\u5c0d\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653e\u6162\u8cb7\u50b5\u6b65\u4f10\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5c40\u65b9\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u5feb\uff0c\u6216\u6703\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u672c\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u9006\u56de\u8cfc\u5de5\u5177\u5275\u4e0b\u7d041\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u9593\u5145\u65a5\u7740\u5927\u91cf\u5ec9\u50f9\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u4e26\u900f\u904e\u6975\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u9006\u6d41\u5230\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff0c\u9019\u4ea6\u662f\u652f\u6301\u653f\u5e9c\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cb7\u50b5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4f55\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u62fe\u6b63\u8ecc\uff1f\u9664\u4e86\u8ca8\u5e63\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u548c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e5f\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u8003\u616e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u554f\u984c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u82e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u5275\u65b0\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u9808\u900f\u904e\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4fc3\u9032\u7522\u696d\u5347\u7d1a\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\uff0c\u65b9\u53ef\u5e36\u52d5\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\u3002\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u8d85\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4ea6\u6703\u52a0\u901f\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u7d93\u6fdf\u904e\u71b1\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5728\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u8d85\u904e\u5e73\u57472%\uff09\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u624d\u6703\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u8981\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9677\u5165\u6eef\u8139\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u76ee\u524d\u6a5f\u6703\u751a\u5fae\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u52a0\u606f\u689d\u4ef6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0a\u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u52a085\u842c\u500b\uff0c\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u4e2d\u768472\u842c\u70ba\u591a\uff1b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5247\u70ba5.9%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u76845.6%\u3002\u5f9e\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u5fa9\u7526\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u901f\u5ea6\u53c3\u5dee\uff0c\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u96d6\u7136\u5fa9\u7526\u52a0\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u696d\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u672a\u53ca\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u529b\u88dc\u8cbc\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u4ed6\u5011\u91cd\u6295\u8077\u5834\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6e1b\u6162\u5c31\u696d\u5fa9\u7526\u3002\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u8077\u4f4d\u8f03\u75ab\u524d\u76f8\u5dee800\u842c\u500b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u6bcf\u6708\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u6578\u5341\u842c\u500b\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ea6\u9700\u7d041\u5e74\u624d\u53ef\u671b\u91cd\u56de\u820a\u65e5\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u66f4\u56e0\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u74f6\u9838\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5448\u5c31\u696d\u653e\u7de9\u8de1\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53d7\u75ab\u60c5\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u6295\u5165\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f42021\u5e741\u6708\u751f\u7522\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\uff08Producer Price Index\uff1b\u7c21\u7a31PPI\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u90545%\uff0c\u5237\u65b010\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7d00\u9304\u3002\u525b\u516c\u5e03\u76846\u6708PPI\u4ecd\u8f035\u6708\u589e\u52a01%\uff0c\u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u589e\u52a07.3%\uff1b\u540c\u6708\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6578\uff08Purchasing Managers’ Index\uff09\u66f4\u905462.6\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u9810\u671f\u768461.5\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u56e0\u6b64\u5df2\u63d0\u9ad8\u7522\u54c1\u552e\u50f9\u4f86\u6536\u56de\u6210\u672c\u3002\u7531\u9700\u6c42\u9a45\u52d5\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u7dca\u5f35\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u64fa\u812b\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5c07\u6062\u5fa9\u5c31\u696d\u5f37\u52c1\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u555f\u52d5\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u300c\u6536\u6c34\u300d\u7684\u7bc0\u594f\u8207\u898f\u6a21\u66f4\u5f62\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u7686\u56e0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5df2\u5728\u4e0a\u6708\u793a\u610f\u63d0\u65e9\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u9810\u671f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u6703\u6709\u6240\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u56de\u98672013\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u6642\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8c9d\u5357\u5947\u7576\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\u5411\u5e02\u5834\u767c\u653e\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cb7\u50b5\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4f46\u523012\u670818\u65e5\u624d\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u76f4\u81f32014\u5e7410\u670829\u65e5\u624d\u5b8c\u6210\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u6709\u9451\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ef\u80fd\u65bc\u660e\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u5c07\u8cb7\u50b5\u91d1\u984d\u4e0b\u8abf\uff0c\u82e5\u6bcf\u6708\u7e2e\u6e1b150\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u9700\u7d936\u81f38\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\uff086\u81f312\u500b\u6708\uff09\u65b9\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u64a4\u9664\u91cf\u5bec\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u5feb\u5728\u4eca\u5e748\u6708\u62169\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cc7\u7522\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u8207\u6703\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u767c\u8868\u524d\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cfc\u8cb7\u6309\u63ed\u62b5\u62bc\u8b49\u5238\uff08Mortgage-Backed Securities\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31MBS\uff09\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u8a72\u5c40\u6b63\u4ee5\u6bcf\u67081200\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u898f\u6a21\u8cfc\u8cb7\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d800\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u65bc\u570b\u50b5\uff0c400\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5247\u8cfc\u8cb7MBS\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u6bcf\u500b\u6708\u9996\u5148\u6e1b\u5c11\u8cfc\u8cb7MBS 100\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u8cfc\u8cb7\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u4e8c\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u65e9\u524d\u591a\u6b21\u5c0d\u6a13\u5e02\u4e0a\u5347\u767c\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u4e26\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u5c11\u91cf\u6cbd\u552e\u6240\u6301\u7684MBS\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9010\u6b65\u6e1b\u6301\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u70ba\u5176\u57fa\u5efa\u65b9\u6848\u722d\u53d6\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u958b\u652f\u898f\u6a21\u8d85\u904e\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u56e0\u9700\u767c\u884c\u5de8\u984d\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u8cb7\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u3002<\/p>\n
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