China\u2019s GDP over Two Millennia \u5169\u5343\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577<\/strong><\/p>\n Runzhuo Zhai of Renmin University of China constructs, for the first time, a decadal GDP dataset for China from 220 BCE to 1949 CE, which, when linked to adjusted post-1949 data based on official surveys, offers a clear view of China\u2019s economic performance over the past two millennia. The continuous series enables testing of Malthusian theory. Our findings indicate that Malthus\u2019s prediction of stagnant per capita income in pre-modern economies likely applies only to the last millennium. Earlier periods in China, representing at least a quarter of the global population, did not experience prolonged stagnation. Furthermore, Malthus\u2019s assumption that population growth outpaces food production may not universally apply to all pre-modern periods. Theoretical social scientists should approach Malthusian theory with caution when describing premodern economies.<\/p>\n \u5169\u5343\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577<\/p>\n \u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b78\u8fb2\u696d\u8207\u8fb2\u6751\u767c\u5c55\u5b78\u9662\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u7fdf\u6f64\u5353\u69cb\u5efa\u4e86\u5f9e\u79e6\u4ee3\u52301949\u5e74\u9023\u7e8c\u7684\u3001\u5341\u5e74\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2GDP\u6578\u64da\u96c6\u3002\u5728\u5169\u5343\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u8ecc\u8de1\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u5343\u5e74\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6e96\u5012U\u578b\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u5f9e\u79e6\u4ee3\u5230\u5317\u5b8b\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GDP\u5f9e380\u570b\u969b\u5143\uff081990\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\u81f31949\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e731,430\u570b\u969b\u5143\u3002\u81ea\u5317\u5b8b\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GDP\u5247\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u9577\u671f\u9707\u76ea\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u76f4\u523019\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u671f\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5728550\u570b\u969b\u5143\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n \u5728\u672c\u6b21\u91cf\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7db2\u4e0a\u8b1b\u5ea7\uff0c\u7fdf\u6f64\u5353\u5c07\u89e3\u91cb\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u89e3\u69cb\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u5169\u5343\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u4e00\u7a2e\u99ac\u723e\u85a9\u65af\u98a8\u683c\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u9a45\u52d5\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7b26\u5408\u7d93\u5178\u99ac\u723e\u85a9\u65af(Malthusian)\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\u300c\u5de5\u8cc7\u9435\u5f8b\u300d\u6240\u63cf\u7e6a\u7684\u9577\u671f\u505c\u6eef\u5716\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n Discussant: Kaixiang Peng, Professor, School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University<\/p>\n *This webinar will be conducted in Mandarin.<\/p>\n Date: September 18, 2025<\/p>\n Time: 16:00 – 17:30 Venue: Zoom Webinar<\/p>\n Language: Mandarin<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Quantitative History (QH) Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The QH Webinar Series, now entering its fifth year, is co-organized by the Centre for Quantitative History at the HKU Business School and the International Society for Quantitative History in partnership with the Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. The Series is now substantially supported by the Areas of Excellence (AoE) Scheme from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. [AoE\/B-704\/22-R]).<\/p>\n \u91cf\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7db2\u4e0a\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7cfb\u5217\u7531\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9673\u5fd7\u6b66\u548c\u99ac\u99b3\u9a01\u6559\u6388\u806f\u5408\u767c\u8d77\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4ecb\u7d39\u524d\u6cbf\u91cf\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u540c\u4ec1\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u63a8\u5ee3\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u3002\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7531\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91cf\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u570b\u969b\u91cf\u5316\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u6703\u627f\u8fa6\uff0c\u53ca\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u6703\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5168\u529b\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5f9e2023\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u7cfb\u5217\u5f97\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u9999\u6e2f\u7279\u5225\u884c\u653f\u5340\u7814\u7a76\u8cc7\u52a9\u5c40\u5353\u8d8a\u5b78\u79d1\u9818\u57df\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8cc7\u52a9 (\u9805\u76ee\u7de8\u865f[AoE\/B-704\/22-R])\u3002<\/p>\n Conveners:
\n16:00 (Hong Kong\/Beijing\/Singapore)
\n04:00 (New York)|01:00 (Los Angeles)|09:00 (London)|17:00 (Tokyo)|18:00 (Sydney)<\/p>\nAbout the Quantitative History Webinar Series<\/h5>\n
\nZhiwu Chen<\/a>
\nChicheng Ma<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-243123","event","type-event","status-publish","hentry","seminar-categories-quantitative-history-series-tc","event-natures-seminar-calendar","event-natures-sc-economics-seminar-seminar-calendar"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/243123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/event"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/243123\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":243245,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/event\/243123\/revisions\/243245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}