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period)\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u751a\u81f3\u8bf4\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u201d(reaction function)\u3002\u8fd9\u7406\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6267\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96be\u514d\u9519\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2020\u5e743\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u94b1\u7ed9\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u968f\u540e\u6765\u52bf\u6c79\u6c79\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u8fbe8%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u53cd\u5e94\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u3002 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rate)\u65f6\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8bf4\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u5e76\u65e0\u5b9e\u9645\u7528\u5904\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u201c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u201d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fbe\u5230\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5219\u201d(Taylor 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am the house now)\u3002\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5ba1\u89c6\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u677e\u7d27\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u968f\u8457 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\u3010\u6ce82\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta 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content=\"\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c030.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u7ea6\u4e3a50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u6570\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570(CPI)\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u95e8\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u5458\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u8fc7\u3002 \u6c83\u4ec0\u4e8e\u672c\u5e745\u6708\u5c31\u4efb\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u56fd\u4f1a\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u4e0e\u53ca\u4ed6\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u6267\u884c\u4e0a\u5c06\u4f1a\u548c\u6570\u4f4d\u524d\u4efb\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5728\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u522b\u9488\u5bf9\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u201d(forward guidance)\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u201c\u5965\u5fb7\u8d5b\u5f0f\u201d(Odyssean)\u7684\u81ea\u7ed1\u624b\u811a\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5229\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002 \u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u59cb\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521d\u65f6\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u8fbe\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u8003\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd10%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6210\u4e3a\u6240\u8c13\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u6b21\u8bf4\u660e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u201c\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\u201d(for some time)\u548c\u201c\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u201d(for an extended period)\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u751a\u81f3\u8bf4\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u201d(reaction function)\u3002\u8fd9\u7406\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6267\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96be\u514d\u9519\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2020\u5e743\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u94b1\u7ed9\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u968f\u540e\u6765\u52bf\u6c79\u6c79\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u8fbe8%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u53cd\u5e94\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u3002 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rate)\u65f6\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8bf4\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u5e76\u65e0\u5b9e\u9645\u7528\u5904\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u201c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u201d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fbe\u5230\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5219\u201d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u3002\u5f53\u901a\u80c0\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6307\u6807\u65f6\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e94\u5c06\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u538b\u7f29\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\uff1b\u800c\u5f53\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e94\u5c06\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8bf4\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6 \u600e\u6837\u5224\u65ad\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9002\u548c\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u660e\u3002 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am the house now)\u3002\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5ba1\u89c6\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u677e\u7d27\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u968f\u8457 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u50a8\u84c4\u80fd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u8d64\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u3001\u5e94\u4ed8\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u548c\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53d1\u5c55\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u5927\u6982\u5df2\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4f1a\u6709\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u7136\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5916\u6ea2\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3002 \u3010\u6ce81\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf \u3010\u6ce82\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-23T02:25:21+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-23T02:43:40+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u6b65\u5165\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u65f6\u671f - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c030.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u7ea6\u4e3a50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u6570\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570(CPI)\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u95e8\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u5458\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u8fc7\u3002 \u6c83\u4ec0\u4e8e\u672c\u5e745\u6708\u5c31\u4efb\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u56fd\u4f1a\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u4e0e\u53ca\u4ed6\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u6267\u884c\u4e0a\u5c06\u4f1a\u548c\u6570\u4f4d\u524d\u4efb\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5728\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6c9f\u901a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u522b\u9488\u5bf9\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u201d(forward guidance)\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u201c\u5965\u5fb7\u8d5b\u5f0f\u201d(Odyssean)\u7684\u81ea\u7ed1\u624b\u811a\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5229\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002 \u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u59cb\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521d\u65f6\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u8fbe\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u8003\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd10%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6210\u4e3a\u6240\u8c13\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u6b21\u8bf4\u660e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u201c\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\u201d(for some time)\u548c\u201c\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u201d(for an extended period)\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u751a\u81f3\u8bf4\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f3a\u8c03\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u5e94\u51fd\u6570\u201d(reaction function)\u3002\u8fd9\u7406\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6267\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96be\u514d\u9519\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e8e2020\u5e743\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u94b1\u7ed9\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u968f\u540e\u6765\u52bf\u6c79\u6c79\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u8fbe8%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u53cd\u5e94\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u3002 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am the house now)\u3002\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5ba1\u89c6\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u677e\u7d27\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u968f\u8457 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am the house now)\u3002\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5ba1\u89c6\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u677e\u7d27\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u968f\u8457 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\u3010\u6ce82\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/","article:published_time":"2026-09-23T02:25:21+00:00","article:modified_time":"2026-09-23T02:43:40+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u6b65\u5165\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u65f6\u671f - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c030.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u7ea6\u4e3a50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u6570\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570(CPI)\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u95e8\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u5458\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u8fc7\u3002 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