{"id":267341,"date":"2026-09-02T10:25:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T02:25:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T10:32:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T02:32:56","slug":"global-imbalances-are-made-at-home","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc<\/h2>\n<p>\u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29<\/h2>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053<\/h2>\n<p>\u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u7ed3\u8bed<\/h2>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-267341","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-hkej-column-sc","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-sc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-sc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-sc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-02T02:25:14+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-02T02:32:56+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u9f99\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\\u9f99\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-sc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u5404\\u56fd\\u81ea\\u5bb6\\u70ae\\u5236\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"\\u5404\\u56fd\\u81ea\\u5bb6\\u70ae\\u5236\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u9f99\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/\",\"name\":\"\\u5404\\u56fd\\u81ea\\u5bb6\\u70ae\\u5236\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861 - HKU Business School\",\"description\":\"\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u53c8\\u518d\\u5377\\u571f\\u91cd\\u6765\\uff0c\\u540e\\u679c\\u4e4b\\u4e00\\u662f\\u8d38\\u6613\\u5173\\u7cfb\\u7d27\\u5f20\\uff0c\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u6d89\\u53ca\\u4e0d\\u516c\\u5e73\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6307\\u63a7\\u3001\\u62a5\\u590d\\u5a01\\u80c1\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u53ca\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u9650\\u5236\\u7b49\\u4e0d\\u65ad\\u5347\\u7ea7\\u7684\\u8d38\\u6613\\u58c1\\u5792\\u3002\\u7d27\\u5f20\\u5c40\\u52bf\\u56fa\\u7136\\u6e90\\u81ea\\u4f17\\u591a\\u65b9\\u9762\\uff0c\\u5305\\u62ec\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u56e0\\u7d20\\u3002 \\u672c\\u6587\\u4ee5\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u4e3a\\u91cd\\u70b9\\uff0c\\u4ece\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u89c6\\u89d2\\u63a2\\u8ba8\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u518d\\u5ea6\\u52a0\\u5267\\u3002\\u8981\\u524a\\u51cf\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\uff08\\u4ea6\\u5373\\u5176\\u5bf9\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u7684\\u4f5c\\u7528\\uff09\\uff0c\\u5fc5\\u5148\\u77eb\\u6b63\\u57fa\\u672c\\u7684\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5931\\u8861\\u3002\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u56fa\\u7136\\u5982\\u6b64\\uff0c\\u800c\\u5bf9\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u6240\\u6709\\u5b58\\u5728\\u5bf9\\u5916\\u5931\\u8861\\u7684\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u4ea6\\u5982\\u51fa\\u4e00\\u8f99\\u3002\\u5f53\\u524d\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u7531\\u51e0\\u4e2a\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u6240\\u81f4\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u53ea\\u662f\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u4e4b\\u4e00\\u800c\\u5df2\\u3002\\u5f52\\u6839\\u7a76\\u67e2\\uff0c\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u95ee\\u9898\\u7684\\u6838\\u5fc3\\u5728\\u4e8e\\u56fd\\u5185\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u800c\\u975e\\u8d38\\u6613\\u58c1\\u5792\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u5927\\u8d77\\u5927\\u8dcc \\u8fd125\\u5e74\\u6765\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5386\\u7ecf3\\u4e2a\\u4e0d\\u540c\\u9636\\u6bb5\\u3002\\u9996\\u5148\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u52a0\\u5165\\u4e16\\u754c\\u8d38\\u6613\\u7ec4\\u7ec7\\u4e4b\\u540e\\uff0c\\u5176\\u76c8\\u9980\\u6025\\u5347\\uff0c2007\\u5e74\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u672c\\u5730\\u751f\\u4ea7\\u603b\\u503c\\uff08GDP\\uff09\\u8fd110%\\uff0c\\u8d38\\u6613\\u4f19\\u4f34\\u4e0d\\u7981\\u5fe7\\u8651\\uff0c\\u6709\\u5173\\u76c8\\u9980\\u6709\\u635f\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\uff0c\\u5305\\u62ec\\u53d8\\u76f8\\u593a\\u8d70\\u5c31\\u4e1a\\u673a\\u4f1a\\u3002\\u53e6\\u4e00\\u8f83\\u5c11\\u4e3a\\u4eba\\u6ce8\\u610f\\u4e4b\\u5904\\uff0c\\u5728\\u4e8e\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5728\\u968f\\u540e10\\u5e74\\u5185\\u7684\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5927\\u5e45\\u4e0b\\u6ed1\\uff0c2018\\u5e74\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u8dcc\\u81f30.2% \\u7684\\u4f4e\\u8c37\\uff0c\\u5b9e\\u9645\\u4e0a\\u8fd1\\u4e4e\\u96f6\\u3002\\u81ea\\u6b64\\u4e4b\\u540e\\uff0c\\u5176\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u6e10\\u6b21\\u56de\\u590d\\u5347\\u52bf\\uff0c2025\\u5e74\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8eGDP\\u76843.7%\\u3002 \\u8981\\u4e86\\u89e3\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u76c8\\u9980\\u7684\\u8d77\\u4f0f\\u8d8b\\u52bf\\uff0c\\u6700\\u4f73\\u529e\\u6cd5\\u662f\\u5ba1\\u89c6\\u56fd\\u5185\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u7684\\u76f8\\u5e94\\u53d8\\u5316\\u3002\\u6309\\u7167\\u4f1a\\u8ba1\\u6052\\u7b49\\u5f0f\\uff0c\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u987b\\u7b49\\u4e8e\\u56fd\\u5185\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u4e0e\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e4b\\u5dee\\uff08\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7b49\\u4e8e\\u6536\\u5165\\u4e0e\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u4e4b\\u5dee\\uff09\\u3002\\u7167\\u5e38\\u7406\\u63a8\\u65ad\\uff0c\\u5047\\u4f7f\\u67d0\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7684\\u4ea7\\u51fa\\u8d85\\u8fc7\\u672c\\u5730\\u4f7f\\u7528\\u91cf\\uff08\\u5305\\u62ec\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u548c\\u6295\\u8d44\\uff09\\uff0c\\u5c31\\u4f1a\\u5c06\\u8d85\\u51fa\\u90e8\\u5206\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u5230\\u56fd\\u5916\\u3002\\u8fd9\\u6b63\\u662f\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u73b0\\u72b6\\u3002\\u53cd\\u4e4b\\uff0c\\u82e5\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u4e0e\\u6295\\u8d44\\u8d85\\u8fc7\\u5176\\u4ea7\\u51fa\\uff0c\\u5c31\\u5fc5\\u987b\\u8fdb\\u53e3\\u77ed\\u7f3a\\u7684\\u90e8\\u5206\\uff1b\\u8fd9\\u6b63\\u662f\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u60c5\\u51b5\\u3002\\u56e0\\u6b64\\uff0c\\u50a8\\u84c4\\uff08\\u6216\\u7b49\\u503c\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8d39\\uff09\\u548c\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e0a\\u7684\\u53d8\\u5316\\u987b\\u4e0e\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u7684\\u53d8\\u5316\\u76f8\\u7b26\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u4e0e\\u6295\\u8d44\\u53d1\\u5c55\\uff0c\\u6b63\\u662f\\u8be5\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u6ce2\\u52a8\\u7684\\u6e05\\u6670\\u5199\\u7167\\u3002\\u9996\\u5148\\uff0c\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5f53\\u521d\\u5347\\u52bf\\u9002\\u9022\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u4ea7\\u51fa\\u5feb\\u901f\\u589e\\u957f\\u65f6\\u671f\\u3002\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5219\\u89c1\\u6ede\\u540e\\uff0c\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u6709\\u6240\\u4e0b\\u8dcc\\u3002\\u4e0e\\u6b64\\u540c\\u65f6\\uff0c\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u540c\\u544a\\u4e0a\\u5347\\u3002\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u968f\\u540e\\u8dcc\\u81f3\\u8fd1\\u96f6\\u7684\\u5173\\u952e\\u56e0\\u7d20\\uff0c\\u5219\\u7cfb\\u4e8e\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u4e0e\\u6295\\u8d44\\u9f50\\u5347\\u7684\\u73b0\\u8c61\\uff1a2007\\u81f32018\\u5e74\\u671f\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5347\\u5e45\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u8fbe4.6\\u4e2a\\u767e\\u5206\\u70b9\\uff0c\\u800c\\u6295\\u8d44\\u5347\\u5e45\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u8fbe3.3\\u4e2a\\u767e\\u5206\\u70b9\\u3002 \\u8fd1\\u671f\\u51fa\\u73b0\\u7684\\u76c8\\u9980\\u56de\\u5347\\uff0c\\u5e76\\u4e0d\\u80fd\\u5f52\\u548e\\u4e8e\\u6d88\\u8d39\\uff0c\\u4e3b\\u56e0\\u662f\\u6295\\u8d44\\uff1b\\u8fd9\\u4ea6\\u53ef\\u7b97\\u8a00\\u4e4b\\u6210\\u7406\\u3002\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u73b0\\u6b63\\u7ecf\\u5386\\u4e00\\u573a\\u53f2\\u4e0a\\u7f55\\u89c1\\u7684\\u623f\\u5730\\u4ea7\\u5927\\u8c03\\u6574\\uff0c\\u5bfc\\u81f4\\u623f\\u5730\\u4ea7\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e00\\u843d\\u5343\\u4e08\\u3002\\u539f\\u67652018\\u81f32025\\u5e74\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5bf9GDP\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u4e0a\\u53473.5\\u4e2a\\u767e\\u5206\\u70b9\\uff0c\\u5b8c\\u5168\\u8db3\\u4ee5\\u7528\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e0b\\u964d\\u6765\\u89e3\\u91ca\\u3002\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u97e7\\u6027\\u6781\\u5f3a\\uff0c\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u4e0a\\u53471\\u4e2a\\u767e\\u5206\\u70b9\\u3002\\u5c3d\\u7ba1\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u8d44\\u4ea7\\u8d1f\\u503a\\u8868\\u5907\\u53d7\\u51b2\\u51fb\\uff0c\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u4ecd\\u662f\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5347\\u5e45\\u7684\\u552f\\u4e00\\u6765\\u6e90\\u3002 \\u8fd9\\u7a81\\u663e\\u51fa\\u5f80\\u5f80\\u88ab\\u5ffd\\u7565\\u7684\\u4e00\\u70b9\\uff0c\\u5c31\\u662f\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u589e\\u957f\\u5f02\\u5e38\\u8fc5\\u901f\\u30021999\\u81f32023\\u5e74\\u671f\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u5b9e\\u9645\\u4eba\\u5747\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u6bcf\\u5e74\\u589e\\u5e45\\u8fbe7.4%\\uff0c\\u5728\\u5168\\u740375\\u5927\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u4e2d\\u4e00\\u679d\\u72ec\\u79c0\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u4e2d\\u4e0d\\u8db3\\u7684\\u662f\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684GDP\\u589e\\u957f\\u66f4\\u5feb\\uff08\\u5c3d\\u7ba1\\u4e0d\\u5c11\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7fa1\\u6155\\u4e0d\\u5df2\\uff09\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u81f4\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5bf9GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u4f4e\\u4e8e1999\\u5e74\\u3002\\u6362\\u8a00\\u4e4b\\uff0c\\u5728\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e0d\\u53d8\\u7684\\u60c5\\u51b5\\u4e0b\\uff0c\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u589e\\u52a0\\u4ea6\\u4ee4\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u76c8\\u9980\\u6c34\\u6da8\\u8239\\u9ad8\\u3002 \\u8fd9\\u662f\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u89c4\\u6a21\\u7684\\u5173\\u952e\\u4e4b\\u5904\\u30022025\\u5e74\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u76c8\\u9980\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u5176GDP\\u76843.7%\\uff0c\\u8fdc\\u8f832007\\u5e74\\u9ad8\\u5cf0\\u671f\\u76849.8%\\u4e3a\\u4f4e\\u3002\\u4e0e\\u6b64\\u540c\\u65f6\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5bf9\\u5168\\u7403GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u5df2\\u75316%\\u589e\\u81f3\\u63a5\\u8fd117%\\u30022025\\u5e74\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u76c8\\u9980\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u5168\\u7403GDP\\u76840.6%\\uff0c\\u4e0e2007\\u5e74\\u9ad8\\u5cf0\\u76f8\\u540c\\u3002\\u4ee5\\u4e2d\\u56fdGDP\\u4f5c\\u4e3a\\u8861\\u91cf\\u6807\\u51c6\\uff0c\\u5931\\u8861\\u5e45\\u5ea6\\u5df2\\u6536\\u7a84\\u8d85\\u8fc7\\u4e00\\u534a\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u5bf9\\u5176\\u8d38\\u6613\\u4f19\\u4f34\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u5374\\u4e1d\\u6beb\\u672a\\u51cf\\u3002\\u800c\\u8fd9\\u4e2a\\u5dee\\u8ddd\\uff0c\\u6b63\\u662f\\u95ee\\u9898\\u4e0d\\u518d\\u4ec5\\u9650\\u4e8e\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u75c7\\u7ed3\\u6240\\u5728\\u3002 \\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u518d\\u5ea6\\u5347\\u6e29 \\u56fd\\u9645\\u8d27\\u5e01\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7ec4\\u7ec7\\uff08\\u4e0b\\u79f0\\u201cIMF\\u201d\\uff09\\u6700\\u65b0\\u8bc4\\u4f30\\u7a81\\u663e\\u51fa\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u4e0e\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u5931\\u8861\\u65e5\\u76ca\\u52a0\\u5267\\u3002IMF\\u57287\\u6708\\u53d1\\u8868\\u7684\\u300a\\u5bf9\\u5916\\u90e8\\u95e8\\u62a5\\u544a\\u300b\\u6307\\u51fa\\uff0c2025\\u5e74\\u5168\\u7403\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u9980\\u989d\\u6301\\u7eed\\u589e\\u52a0\\uff0c\\u8d85\\u989d\\u90e8\\u5206\\u7684\\u589e\\u5e45\\u4ea6\\u89c1\\u6269\\u5927\\uff0c\\u800c\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u4e24\\u56fd\\u4e3a\\u9a71\\u52a8\\u4e3b\\u56e0\\u3002\\u4e24\\u56fd\\u7684\\u5931\\u8861\\u60c5\\u51b5\\u5448\\u73b0\\u9010\\u6b65\\u53d8\\u5316\\uff1a\\u4e0e2023\\u5e74\\u6570\\u636e\\u5927\\u81f4\\u76f8\\u7b26\\uff0c\\u4e0e2024\\u5e74\\u6570\\u636e\\u4e2d\\u5ea6\\u504f\\u79bb\\uff0c\\u4e0e2025\\u5e74\\u6570\\u636e\\u5219\\u8fdb\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u504f\\u79bb\\u3002\\u8861\\u91cf\\u6807\\u51c6\\u4e0d\\u5728\\u4e8e\\u9980\\u989d\\u5927\\u5c0f\\uff0c\\u800c\\u5728\\u4e8e\\u5176\\u4e0e\\u4e00\\u56fd\\u7279\\u5b9a\\u5e38\\u6001\\u7684\\u5dee\\u8ddd\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u82e5\\u5e72\\u5927\\u578b\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u88ab\\u5217\\u4e3a\\u5173\\u6ce8\\u5bf9\\u8c61\\uff0c\\u800c\\u6b27\\u7f57\\u533a\\u6574\\u4f53\\u5219\\u4e0d\\u7136\\u3002\\u9664\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5916\\uff0c\\u8bc4\\u4f30\\u540d\\u5355\\u4ea6\\u5305\\u62ec\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\uff1b\\u572830\\u4e2a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u4e4b\\u4e2d\\uff0c11\\u4e2a\\u8868\\u73b0\\u88ab\\u8bc4\\u4e3a\\u9ad8\\u4e8e\\u57fa\\u672c\\u9762\\u6240\\u80fd\\u652f\\u6301\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\uff0c\\u8ba1\\u6709\\u5fb7\\u56fd\\u3001\\u8377\\u5170\\u3001\\u745e\\u5178\\u7b49\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u5357\\u97e9\\u3001\\u65b0\\u52a0\\u5761\\u7b49\\u4e9a\\u6d32\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u53e6\\u670911\\u56fd\\u7684\\u8868\\u73b0\\u5219\\u88ab\\u8bc4\\u4e3a\\u4f4e\\u4e8e\\u57fa\\u672c\\u9762\\u6240\\u80fd\\u652f\\u6301\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002 \\u6487\\u5f00\\u4e0a\\u8ff0\\u8bc4\\u4f30\\u90e8\\u5206\\uff0c\\u5355\\u5c31\\u9980\\u989d\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u89c1\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u51fa\\u73b0\\u4e00\\u5927\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u4e0e\\u4e09\\u5927\\u76c8\\u9980\\u3002\\u51fa\\u73b0\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u7684\\u662f\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\uff0c2025\\u5e74\\u5176\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u5168\\u7403GDP \\u76840.9%\\uff0c\\u8f832018\\u5e74\\u76840.5% \\u589e\\u8fd11\\u500d\\u3002\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u76c8\\u9980\\u8fbe0.6%\\uff0c\\u4e3a\\u5404\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u4e4b\\u51a0\\u3002\\u4f46\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u53f0\\u6e7e\\u3001\\u5357\\u97e9\\u3001\\u65b0\\u52a0\\u5761\\u3001\\u9999\\u6e2f\\u7b49\\u4e00\\u7fa4\\u4e9a\\u6d32\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\uff0c\\u5408\\u8ba1\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5927\\u540c\\u5c0f\\u5f02\\uff0c\\u4ea6\\u8fbe0.6%\\u3002\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u65b9\\u9762\\uff0c\\u6b27\\u76df\\u548c\\u745e\\u58eb\\u76c8\\u9980\\u5219\\u8fbe0.5%\\uff0c\\u4f4d\\u5c45\\u7b2c3\\u3002\\u65b0\\u51a0\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u524d\\u76842015\\u81f32019\\u5e74\\u671f\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u76c8\\u9980\\u6309\\u6b64\\u6807\\u51c6\\u8861\\u91cf\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u76843\\u500d\\u3002 \\u4ee5\\u4e0a\\u60c5\\u51b5\\u770b\\u6765\\u8db3\\u4ee5\\u6301\\u7eed\\u3002\\u6839\\u636eIMF\\u5ef6\\u4f38\\u81f32031\\u5e74\\uff08\\u8fd9\\u662f\\u76ee\\u524d\\u5df2\\u516c\\u5e03\\u9884\\u6d4b\\u7684\\u6700\\u540e\\u4e00\\u5e74\\uff09\\u7684\\u9884\\u6d4b\\uff0c1\\u9879\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u4e0e3\\u9879\\u76c8\\u9980\\u7684\\u683c\\u5c40\\u7ef4\\u6301\\u4e0d\\u53d8\\u3002\\u9884\\u8ba1\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u5168\\u7403GDP\\u76840.9%\\uff0c\\u7565\\u4f4e\\u4e8e2025\\u5e74\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002\\u66f4\\u4e3a\\u663e\\u8457\\u7684\\u662f3\\u9879\\u76c8\\u9980\\u8d8b\\u4e8e\\u4e00\\u81f4\\uff0c\\u5bf9\\u5168\\u7403GDP\\u7684\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u540c\\u4e3a\\u63a5\\u8fd10.5%\\u3002\\u4f46\\u6570\\u5b57\\u4e2d\\u6697\\u85cf\\u7384\\u673a\\uff1a\\u5df2\\u62a5\\u544a\\u7684\\u76c8\\u9980\\u9ad8\\u4e8e\\u5df2\\u62a5\\u544a\\u7684\\u8d64\\u5b57\\uff0c2025\\u5e74\\u5bf9\\u5168\\u7403GDP\\u6bd4\\u7387\\u7684\\u6574\\u4f53\\u5dee\\u989d\\u7ea6\\u4e3a0.5%\\u3002\\u56e0\\u6b64\\uff0c\\u8fd9\\u4e9b\\u76c8\\u9980\\u7684\\u603b\\u989d\\u8fdc\\u9ad8\\u4e8e\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u3002 \\u4e8b\\u5b9e\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u7684\\u8ba1\\u7b97\\u8f83\\u8868\\u9762\\u770b\\u6765\\u91cd\\u8981\\u5f97\\u591a\\u3002\\u5373\\u4f7f\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u76c8\\u9980\\u4e00\\u591c\\u4e4b\\u95f4\\u6d88\\u5931\\uff0c\\u5168\\u7403\\u8d85\\u8fc770%\\u7684\\u76c8\\u9980\\u4ecd\\u4f1a\\u5b58\\u5728\\u3002\\u4ece\\u7ed3\\u6784\\u4e0a\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u4e00\\u4e2a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7684\\u8d64\\u5b57\\u5fc5\\u7136\\u5bf9\\u7b49\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7684\\u76c8\\u9980\\uff0c\\u65e0\\u8bba\\u5411\\u4efb\\u4f55\\u5355\\u4e00\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u65bd\\u538b\\uff0c\\u4e5f\\u96be\\u671b\\u627e\\u5230\\u89e3\\u51b3\\u65b9\\u6848\\u3002\\u5355\\u9760\\u4e00\\u4e2a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u4f5c\\u51fa\\u8c03\\u6574\\u8f83\\u96be\\u6210\\u4e8b\\uff0c\\u98ce\\u9669\\u4ea6\\u8f83\\u9ad8\\uff0c\\u4e0d\\u53ca\\u5728\\u591a\\u4e2a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u540c\\u65f6\\u8c03\\u6574\\u3002 \\u77eb\\u6b63\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5931\\u8861\\u4e4b\\u9053 \\u8981\\u51cf\\u8f7b\\u5168\\u7403\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u5931\\u8861\\uff0c\\u987b\\u540c\\u65f6\\u77eb\\u6b63\\u76f8\\u5e94\\u7684\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5931\\u8861\\uff0c\\u8fd9\\u81f3\\u5c11\\u662f\\u4e00\\u4f17\\u5b8f\\u89c2\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\u7684\\u666e\\u904d\\u5171\\u8bc6\\u3002\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u5e94\\u589e\\u52a0\\u50a8\\u84c4\\uff0c\\u5c24\\u5176\\u662f\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u516c\\u5171\\u50a8\\u84c4\\uff0c\\u800c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5e94\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u6d88\\u8d39\\uff0c\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u5219\\u5e94\\u589e\\u52a0\\u6295\\u8d44\\u3002\\u8fd9\\u65e2\\u662fIMF\\u7684\\u4e00\\u8d2f\\u5efa\\u8bae\\uff0c\\u4e5f\\u662f\\u767d\\u91cd\\u6069\\uff09\\uff08Bai Chong-En\\uff09\\u3001\\u6208\\u76ae\\u7eb3\\u7279\\uff08Gita Gopinath\\uff09\\u3001\\u96f7\\u4f0a\\uff08H\\u00e9l\\u00e8ne Rey\\uff09\\u4e0e\\u97e6\\u4f2f\\uff08Axel A. Weber\\uff093\\u6708\\u4e3a\\u4e03\\u56fd\\u96c6\\u56e2\\u64b0\\u5199\\u7684\\u4e00\\u4efd\\u5907\\u5fd8\\u5f55\\u4e2d\\u7684\\u4e3b\\u5f20\\u3002 \\u6b63\\u5982\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u9a8c\\u6240\\u663e\\u793a\\uff0c\\u8981\\u843d\\u5b9e\\u4e0a\\u8ff0\\u5efa\\u8bae\\u8c08\\u4f55\\u5bb9\\u6613\\u3002\\u81ea2010\\u5e74\\u8d77\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5927\\u81f4\\u63a8\\u884c\\u8fd9\\u4e9b\\u653f\\u7b56\\u5efa\\u8bae\\uff0c\\u9000\\u4f11\\u91d1\\u548c\\u533b\\u7597\\u5236\\u5ea6\\u5927\\u5e45\\u6269\\u5c55\\uff0c\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u4fe1\\u8d37\\u4e5f\\u6709\\u6240\\u6269\\u5927\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\uff0c\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5360\\u6bd4\\u589e\\u957f\\u7f13\\u6162\\uff0c\\u5bf9\\u76c8\\u9980\\u4ea7\\u751f\\u7684\\u5f71\\u54cd\\u4ea6\\u88ab\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e0b\\u964d\\u6240\\u62b5\\u6d88\\u3002 \\u4e2a\\u4e2d\\u9762\\u5bf9\\u7684\\u56f0\\u96be\\u4ea6\\u975e\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u72ec\\u6709\\u3002\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u8981\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u516c\\u5171\\u50a8\\u84c4\\uff0c\\u987b\\u900f\\u8fc7\\u52a0\\u7a0e\\u6216\\u524a\\u51cf\\u5f00\\u652f\\uff0c\\u4e0d\\u4f46\\u5728\\u77ed\\u671f\\u5185\\u5bfc\\u81f4\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u6536\\u7f29\\uff0c\\u4e14\\u5728\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u4e0a\\u4ee3\\u4ef7\\u6c89\\u91cd\\u3002\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u6295\\u8d44\\u7684\\u65b9\\u6848\\u6709\\u52a9\\u589e\\u5f3a\\u751f\\u4ea7\\u6548\\u80fd\\uff0c\\u5047\\u4ee5\\u65f6\\u65e5\\u53ef\\u4fc3\\u8fdb\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u4ea7\\u54c1\\u5916\\u9500\\uff0c\\u800c\\u67d0\\u7a0b\\u5ea6\\u4e0a\\u4f1a\\u524a\\u5f31\\u9884\\u671f\\u6548\\u679c\\u3002\\u6b64\\u7b49\\u56fd\\u5185\\u63aa\\u65bd\\u90fd\\u4e0d\\u80fd\\u7acb\\u7aff\\u89c1\\u5f71\\u3002 \\u8bdd\\u867d\\u5982\\u6b64\\uff0c\\u8fd9\\u4e9b\\u90fd\\u662f\\u6b63\\u786e\\u7684\\u5bf9\\u7b56\\u3002\\u5f53\\u524d\\u4ee5\\u7259\\u8fd8\\u7259\\u5f0f\\u7684\\u8d38\\u6613\\u58c1\\u5792\\uff08\\u5982\\u5173\\u7a0e\\uff09\\u4e0d\\u65ad\\u5347\\u7ea7\\uff0c\\u96be\\u4ee5\\u5b9e\\u8d28\\u4e0a\\u6539\\u53d8\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u548c\\u6295\\u8d44\\u7684\\u683c\\u5c40\\uff1bIMF\\u81ea\\u8eab\\u6240\\u4f5c\\u5206\\u6790\\u53d1\\u73b0\\uff0c\\u8d38\\u6613\\u9650\\u5236\\u65e0\\u52a9\\u4e8e\\u4fee\\u6b63\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u5931\\u8861\\uff0c\\u53cd\\u800c\\u8db3\\u4ee5\\u9020\\u6210\\u91cd\\u5927\\u7834\\u574f\\u3002\\u636eIMF\\u4f30\\u8ba1\\uff0c\\u5728\\u6781\\u7aef\\u60c5\\u5883\\u4e0b\\uff0c\\u8d38\\u6613\\u788e\\u7247\\u5316\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u9020\\u6210\\u76f8\\u5f53\\u4e8e\\u5168\\u7403GDP \\u7ea67% \\u7684\\u635f\\u5931\\uff0c\\u800c\\u79d1\\u6280\\u8131\\u94a9\\u66f4\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u4ee4\\u90e8\\u5206\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u627f\\u53d78% \\u81f312% \\u7684\\u635f\\u5931\\u3002 \\u7ed3\\u8bed \\u6b63\\u5982\\u4e0a\\u8ff0\\u4e03\\u56fd\\u96c6\\u56e2\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\u5728\\u5176\\u5907\\u5fd8\\u5f55\\u4e2d\\u6240\\u6307\\u51fa\\uff0c\\u51cf\\u8f7b\\u5168\\u7403\\u7ecf\\u5e38\\u5e10\\u5931\\u8861\\u7b26\\u5408\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u7684\\u4e2a\\u522b\\u4e0e\\u6574\\u4f53\\u5229\\u76ca\\u3002\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u6d88\\u8d39\\uff0c\\u4e0d\\u8bba\\u5bf9\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6536\\u652f\\u6709\\u4f55\\u5f71\\u54cd\\uff0c\\u5bf9\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u5ead\\u672c\\u8eab\\u90fd\\u662f\\u597d\\u4e8b\\u3002\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u6295\\u8d44\\uff0c\\u81ea\\u7136\\u5bf9\\u6b27\\u6d32\\u6709\\u5229\\u3002\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u50a8\\u84c4\\uff0c\\u5305\\u62ec\\u8fdb\\u884c\\u8d22\\u653f\\u8c03\\u6574\\uff0c\\u672c\\u8eab\\u4ea6\\u81f3\\u5173\\u91cd\\u8981\\u3002\\u5bf9\\u8fd9\\u4e9b\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u6700\\u574f\\u60c5\\u51b5\\u662f\\u88ab\\u8feb\\u800c\\u975e\\u4e3b\\u52a8\\u9009\\u62e9\\u65e0\\u5e8f\\u8c03\\u6574\\u3002\\u53ea\\u8981\\u5404\\u81ea\\u63a8\\u884c\\u6b63\\u786e\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u6bcf\\u4e2a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u5c31\\u80fd\\u4ee5\\u4fc3\\u8fdb\\u4e2a\\u522b\\u4e0e\\u6574\\u4f53\\u798f\\u7949\\u7684\\u65b9\\u5f0f\\uff0c\\u6709\\u5e8f\\u77eb\\u6b63\\u5168\\u7403\\u5931\\u8861\\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\\u6559\\u6388 \\u6e2f\\u5927\\u7ecf\\u7ba1\\u5b66\\u9662\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5b9e\\u52a1\\u6559\\u6388 \\uff08\\u672c\\u6587\\u540c\\u65f6\\u4e8e\\u4e8c\\u96f6\\u4e8c\\u516d\\u5e74\\u4e5d\\u6708\\u4e8c\\u65e5\\u8f7d\\u4e8e\\u300a\\u4fe1\\u62a5\\u300b\\u201c\\u9f99\\u864e\\u5c71\\u4e0b\\u201d\\u4e13\\u680f\\uff09\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/hkej-column\\\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-02T10:25:14+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-02T10:32:56+08:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#organization\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School","description":"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"google-site-verification":"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo","miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/#listItem","name":"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/#listItem","name":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/#listItem","name":"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b"}}]},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#organization","name":"HKU Business School","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/","name":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School","description":"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-CN","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2026-09-02T10:25:14+08:00","dateModified":"2026-09-02T10:32:56+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-CN","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School","og:description":"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/","article:published_time":"2026-09-02T02:25:14+00:00","article:modified_time":"2026-09-02T02:32:56+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861 - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u53c8\u518d\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u8d38\u6613\u6307\u63a7\u3001\u62a5\u590d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u7b49\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u56fa\u7136\u6e90\u81ea\u4f17\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 \u672c\u6587\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u91cd\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u63a2\u8ba8\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\u5176\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u5148\u77eb\u6b63\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fa\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4ea6\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5927\u8d77\u5927\u8dcc \u8fd125\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5386\u7ecf3\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u76c8\u9980\u6025\u5347\uff0c2007\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u8fd110%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e0d\u7981\u5fe7\u8651\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u76c8\u9980\u6709\u635f\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53d8\u76f8\u593a\u8d70\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8f83\u5c11\u4e3a\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u968f\u540e10\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c2018\u5e74\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8dcc\u81f30.2% \u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd1\u4e4e\u96f6\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u5e73\u6e10\u6b21\u56de\u590d\u5347\u52bf\uff0c2025\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8eGDP\u76843.7%\u3002 \u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba1\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4f1a\u8ba1\u6052\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u987b\u7b49\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u5dee\uff08\u50a8\u84c4\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u3002\u7167\u5e38\u7406\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5047\u4f7f\u67d0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u8d85\u8fc7\u672c\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c06\u8d85\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u53e3\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\uff08\u6216\u7b49\u503c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u987b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u7b26\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u5199\u7167\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76c8\u9980\u5f53\u521d\u5347\u52bf\u9002\u9022\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u51fa\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u5219\u89c1\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u540c\u544a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u968f\u540e\u8dcc\u81f3\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5219\u7cfb\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u9f50\u5347\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a2007\u81f32018\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe4.6\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u5347\u5e45\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fbe3.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002 \u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u8fd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u7b97\u8a00\u4e4b\u6210\u7406\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u4e0a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u843d\u5343\u4e08\u3002\u539f\u67652018\u81f32025\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u5bf9GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53473.5\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8db3\u4ee5\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u97e7\u6027\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0a\u53471\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5907\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ecd\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u5347\u5e45\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6765\u6e90\u3002 \u8fd9\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u957f\u5f02\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u30021999\u81f32023\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u5e45\u8fbe7.4%\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u740375\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\u4e00\u679d\u72ec\u79c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u5feb\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u5c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7fa1\u6155\u4e0d\u5df2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e1999\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u589e\u52a0\u4ea6\u4ee4\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6c34\u6da8\u8239\u9ad8\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u5904\u30022025\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5176GDP\u76843.7%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8f832007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u76849.8%\u4e3a\u4f4e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5df2\u75316%\u589e\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd117%\u30022025\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0e2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5931\u8861\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u6536\u7a84\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5374\u4e1d\u6beb\u672a\u51cf\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c7\u7ed3\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29 \u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4e0b\u79f0\u201cIMF\u201d\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002IMF\u57287\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u9980\u989d\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d85\u989d\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4ea6\u89c1\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u5931\u8861\u60c5\u51b5\u5448\u73b0\u9010\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4e0e2023\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b26\uff0c\u4e0e2024\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5ea6\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u6570\u636e\u5219\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u9980\u989d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0e\u4e00\u56fd\u7279\u5b9a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b27\u6d32\u82e5\u5e72\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u88ab\u5217\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u7f57\u533a\u6574\u4f53\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u540d\u5355\u4ea6\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1b\u572830\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c11\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8ba1\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7b49\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7b49\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53e6\u670911\u56fd\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5219\u88ab\u8bc4\u4e3a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6240\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u6487\u5f00\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5355\u5c31\u9980\u989d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5176\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e\u4e09\u5927\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5176\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u76840.9%\uff0c\u8f832018\u5e74\u76840.5% \u589e\u8fd11\u500d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u8fbe0.6%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9999\u6e2f\u7b49\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5408\u8ba1\u76c8\u9980\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u5f02\uff0c\u4ea6\u8fbe0.6%\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u76c8\u9980\u5219\u8fbe0.5%\uff0c\u4f4d\u5c45\u7b2c3\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u76842015\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76c8\u9980\u6309\u6b64\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76843\u500d\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\u6765\u8db3\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f32031\u5e74\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c1\u9879\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0e3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP\u76840.9%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f3\u9879\u76c8\u9980\u8d8b\u4e8e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u540c\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd10.5%\u3002\u4f46\u6570\u5b57\u4e2d\u6697\u85cf\u7384\u673a\uff1a\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5df2\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5168\u7403GDP\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u5dee\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a0.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u603b\u989d\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u3002 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f83\u8868\u9762\u770b\u6765\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76c8\u9980\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d85\u8fc770%\u7684\u76c8\u9980\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u5fc5\u7136\u5bf9\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u671b\u627e\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f5c\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u8f83\u96be\u6210\u4e8b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u540c\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u77eb\u6b63\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\u4e4b\u9053 \u8981\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u987b\u540c\u65f6\u77eb\u6b63\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u4f17\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u63d0\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5219\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8fd9\u65e2\u662fIMF\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u767d\u91cd\u6069\uff09\uff08Bai Chong-En\uff09\u3001\u6208\u76ae\u7eb3\u7279\uff08Gita Gopinath\uff09\u3001\u96f7\u4f0a\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey\uff09\u4e0e\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08Axel A. Weber\uff093\u6708\u4e3a\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002 \u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u843d\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5efa\u8bae\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u81ea2010\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u81f4\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u5236\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u5360\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5bf9\u76c8\u9980\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea6\u88ab\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u964d\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002 \u4e2a\u4e2d\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u4ea6\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u72ec\u6709\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u516c\u5171\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u987b\u900f\u8fc7\u52a0\u7a0e\u6216\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6709\u52a9\u589e\u5f3a\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u5047\u4ee5\u65f6\u65e5\u53ef\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6b27\u6d32\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u9500\uff0c\u800c\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u3002 \u8bdd\u867d\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u5f0f\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff08\u5982\u5173\u7a0e\uff09\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff1bIMF\u81ea\u8eab\u6240\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7834\u574f\u3002\u636eIMF\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u788e\u7247\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5168\u7403GDP \u7ea67% \u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u6280\u8131\u94a9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u627f\u53d78% \u81f312% \u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e03\u56fd\u96c6\u56e2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51cf\u8f7b\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7b26\u5408\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6709\u5229\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8fdb\u884c\u8d22\u653f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u65e0\u5e8f\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u81ea\u63a8\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5c31\u80fd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e2a\u522b\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u798f\u7949\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u5e8f\u77eb\u6b63\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002 Steven Alan Barnett\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9e\u52a1\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"267341","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":null,"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":null,"og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"WebPage","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":null,"robots_max_videopreview":null,"robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":null,"local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":0,"ai":null,"created":"2026-09-02 02:32:04","updated":"2026-09-02 02:32:04","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/\" title=\"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\">\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/"},{"label":"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/"},{"label":"\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u5bb6\u70ae\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/global-imbalances-are-made-at-home\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/267341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/267341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":267343,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/267341\/revisions\/267343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=267341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=267341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}