{"id":264119,"date":"2026-07-15T15:24:26","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T07:24:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/the-global-current-account-imbalance-then-and-now\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T16:22:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T08:22:03","slug":"the-global-current-account-imbalance-then-and-now","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-global-current-account-imbalance-then-and-now\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5199\u7167\uff1a\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7ea6<span>20<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bae\u9898\u662f\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5305\u62ec\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u53ca\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u4e92\u76f8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u5dee\u989d\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u524d\u8005\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3002\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u53ef\u89c6\u4e3a\u8d38\u6613\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u5373\u4f17\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u76c8\u9980\u6216\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u751a\u81f3\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2a\u522b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u76c8\u9980\u6216\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5c5e\u6b63\u5e38\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u8fd9\u662f\u5168\u7403\u72b6\u51b5\u5e76\u4e14\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4e2a\u522b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u6216\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u6765\u91cf\u5ea6\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u6309<span>IMF<\/span>\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa<span>70<\/span>\u81f3<span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u7ea6\u4e3a<span>2<\/span>\u81f3<span>3%<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46<span>90<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u81f3<span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u8fbe\u5230<span>5.5%<\/span>\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002\u524d\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u5728<span>2006<\/span>\u5e74\u4e0a\u4efb\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u6570\u6b21\u6f14\u8bb2\u53ca\u53d1\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u8fc7\u5269 \u201d<span>(saving glut) <\/span>\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5927\u610f\u662f\u4e9a\u6d32\u548c\u8f93\u51fa\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u50a8\u84c4\u751a\u591a\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5f53\u5730\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6709\u6548\u5438\u7eb3\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u9042\u6d41\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u6709\u8f83\u6210\u719f\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u5e10\u7684\u603b\u548c\u662f\u96f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56e0\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u5728\u8d44\u672c\u5e10\u4e0a\u6709\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u4e0a\u4fbf\u6709\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u800c\u4e9a\u6d32\u548c\u8f93\u51fa\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u521a\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e1c\u4e9a\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u9ad8\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u5916\u6765\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46<span>1997-98<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u9006\u8f6c\u4e86\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5916\u8d44\u8fc5\u901f\u6d41\u51fa\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7a33\u7a33\u5b88\u4f4f\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u589e\u6301\u7f8e\u503a\u7b49\u5916\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728<span>2001<\/span>\u5e74\u5e95\u52a0\u5165<span>WTO<\/span>\u540e\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6269\u5927\u5931\u8861\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u8d23\u4efb\u653e\u5728\u6709\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5982\u4e9a\u6d32\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u8f93\u51fa\u56fd\uff0c\u98a0\u5012\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u592a\u591a\u56e0\u800c\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0 <\/span>\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7406\u4e8b\u7684\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u5170<span>(Stephen Miran)<\/span>\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u4ed6\u4fe9\u7684\u5206\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u8f83\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\uff0c\u4e0d\u82e5\u7c73\u5170\u822c\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u5f3a\u6253\u5f3a\u8981\u6765\u5904\u7406\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u8d64\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u50a8\u84c4\u8fc7\u5269\u8fd8\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u606f\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u5f55\u5f97\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u8bba\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<span>2001<\/span>\u5e74\u56e0\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u53ca<span>911<\/span>\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u8be5\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u5176\u5b9e\u4e3a\u65f6\u751a\u77ed\uff0c\u4f46\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4ecd\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u53ca\u6301\u7eed\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u915d\u917f\u4e86\u968f\u540e\u7684\u201c\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u201d<span>(subprime crisis) <\/span>\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5927\u529b\u653e\u6c34\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u81ea\u7136\u4f4e\u4f01\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u53ca\u8fdb\u53e3\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4ecd\u7136\u672a\u80fd\u660e\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u603b\u548c\u5360\u5168\u7403<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728<span>2008<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u6570\u5e74\u90fd\u9ad8\u4e8e<span>5%<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u7684\u7834\u574f\u529b\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u62c9\u5411\u4e25\u91cd\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u538b\u7f29\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u968f\u540e\u5341\u5e74\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5230<span>2019<\/span>\u5e74\u56de\u843d\u81f3<span>2.8%<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa<span>80<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u4fc3\u8fdb\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7f13\u548c\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u81ea<span>2020<\/span>\u5e74\u8d77 \uff0c\u6709\u5173\u6bd4\u4f8b\u91cd\u62fe\u5347\u8f68\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e<span>3%<\/span>\u5e76\u63a5\u8fd1<span>4%<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ecd\u7136\u4f4e\u4e8e<span>20<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\u7684<span>5%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e9\u5df2\u5f15\u8d77\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u548c<span>20<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\u5dee\u522b\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u6c11\u4f17\u4e09\u65b9\u9762\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5f00\u652f\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u603b\u548c\u3002<span>2005<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u8d64\u5b57\u7684<span>43%<\/span>\uff0c\u5230\u4e86<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u5219\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u81f3<span>140%<\/span>\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u8be5\u5e74\u7684\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e8c\u5ea6\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u4fe1\u8a93\u65e6\u65e6\u5730\u8981\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u548c\u4ed6\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5982\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u548c\u4eca\u5e74\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u53d1\u52a8\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5012\u884c\u9006\u65bd\u3001\u5f04\u5de7\u53cd\u62d9\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u4eca\u5e74<span>8<\/span>\u6708\u5e95\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709<span>1.9<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec<span>2020<\/span>\u548c<span>2021 <\/span>\u53d7\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e24\u5e74\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u603b\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u76c8\u9980\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u7b56\u8fbe\u81f3\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u76c8\u9980\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u91d1\u878d\u6291\u5236\u5c06\u8d44\u6e90\u8bf1\u5bfc\u81f3\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u5e94\u4ed8\u57ce\u6295\u503a\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5c45\u6c11\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u610f\u613f\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8bf4\u5230\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u89d2\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u90fd\u5728\u51cf\u5c11 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International Investment Position, 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NIIP)\u6b63\u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u7684\u51c0\u6b20\u6b3e\u3002\u81f3\u672c\u5e74\u9996\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684NIIP\u8fbe21.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u662f\u5b83GDP\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5df2\u7531\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u51cf\u606f\u8f6c\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u606f\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u66f4\u964d\u4f4e\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u5916\u56fd\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8003\u8651\u3002\u82e5\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u70ed\u6f6e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8003\u8651\u4f1a\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002 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Miran)\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002\u4ed6\u4fe9\u7684\u5206\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u8f83\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\uff0c\u4e0d\u82e5\u7c73\u5170\u822c\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u5f3a\u6253\u5f3a\u8981\u6765\u5904\u7406\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u8d64\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u5931\u8861\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u50a8\u84c4\u8fc7\u5269\u8fd8\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8fc7\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002\u8d1d\u5357\u5947\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u606f\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u5f55\u5f97\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u8bba\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c2001\u5e74\u56e0\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u53ca911\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u8be5\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u5176\u5b9e\u4e3a\u65f6\u751a\u77ed\uff0c\u4f46\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4ecd\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u53ca\u6301\u7eed\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u915d\u917f\u4e86\u968f\u540e\u7684\u201c\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u201d(subprime 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