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\u82e5\u4f60\u5229\u7528\u6b64\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f1a\u5426\u6784\u6210\u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\uff1f\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u7cfb\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u6b3a\u8bc8\u6027\u8fdd\u53cd\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6b64\u7c7b\u627f\u8bfa\u9700\u6309\u4f60\u548c\u670b\u53cb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u62ab\u9732\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u660e\u786e\u4e49\u52a1\u6216\u6b63\u5f0f\u534f\u8bae\u800c\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u63d0\u51fa\u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u969c\u788d\u91cd\u91cd\u3002 \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u6559\u6388\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/prediction-markets-driven-by-insight-or-insider-information\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-11T06:55:02+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-11T07:04:01+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u9760\u773c\u5149\u8fd8\u662f\u5185\u5e55 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff08prediction market\uff09\u662f\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6295\u673a\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8f93\u8d62\u7ed1\u5b9a\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7a7a\u88ad\u4f0a\u6717\uff09\u6216\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u5982\u660e\u65e5\u80a1\u5e02\u5347\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u80dc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u7387\u662f75%\uff0c\u6b64\u6307\u6570\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u662f$75\uff0c\u5982\u4f0a\u6717\u771f\u7684\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u4ef7\u503c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5347\u81f3$100\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u5173\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5df2100%\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002 \u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u533f\u540d\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5404\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e0d\u987b\u7f34\u4ed8\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002 \u57fa\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4ea7\u54c1\u6210\u65b0\u6218\u573a \u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6e10\u53d7\u8ffd\u6367\uff0cPolymarket \u4e0e Kalshi \u5728\u4e0a\u6708\u7684\u603b\u4ea4\u6295\u91cf\u521b\u4e0b175 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u65b0\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4e5f\u8003\u8651\u53d1\u5c55\u76f8\u5173\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u5df2\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SEC\uff09\u63d0\u4ea4\u7533\u8bf7\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u63a8\u51fa\u4e0e\u65d7\u4e0b\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b100 \u6307\u6570\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u6784\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u4f9d\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u4f1a\u7387\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u800c\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002 \u7ebd\u7ea6\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8\u6d32\u9645\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08ICE\uff09\u53bb\u5e74\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9 Polymarket \u6295\u8d44\u7ea6 20 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08CBOE\uff09\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8CBOE Global Markets \u5219\u4f20\u51fa\u6b63\u8bc4\u4f30\u91cd\u65b0\u63a8\u51fa\u201c\u5168\u6709\u6216\u5168\u65e0\u201d\uff08all-or-nothing\uff09\u671f\u6743\u5408\u7ea6\u3002 Polymarket\u3001Kalshi\u7b49\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u76d1\u7ba1\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08CFTC\uff09\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7533\u8bf7\uff0c\u5728\u4ea7\u54c1\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1b\u82e5\u7533\u8bf7\u987a\u5229\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u671f\u6743\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684\u5d2d\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u9075\u7167\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5408\u89c4\u6807\u51c6\u3002 \u4e0d\u53ef\u4e0d\u5bdf\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u82e5\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea7\u54c1\u83b7\u51c6\u7eb3\u5165 SEC \u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u9996\u6b21\u8ba9\u9884\u6d4b\u578b\u4ea4\u6613\u5de5\u5177\u8fdb\u5165\u4f20\u7edf\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u4ece\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u8d70\u8fdb\u8bc1\u5238\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4ea6\u96be\u514d\u4ee4 SEC \u4e0e CFTC \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ba1\u8f96\u754c\u7ebf\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u6838\u5fc3\u3002SEC \u8fd1\u671f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u51fa\u73b0\u7ba1\u8f96\u6743\u8d23\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u4ecd\u987b\u534f\u8c03\u76d1\u7ba1\u3002 \u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\u9634\u5f71\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb \u4ece\u4f20\u5a92\u62a5\u5bfc\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u5e73\u53f0\u8ba8\u8bba\u6216\u53ef\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5728\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4e4f\u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u4eca\u5e74 1 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Business School","twitter:description":"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff08prediction market\uff09\u662f\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6295\u673a\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8f93\u8d62\u7ed1\u5b9a\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7a7a\u88ad\u4f0a\u6717\uff09\u6216\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u5982\u660e\u65e5\u80a1\u5e02\u5347\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u80dc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u7387\u662f75%\uff0c\u6b64\u6307\u6570\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u662f$75\uff0c\u5982\u4f0a\u6717\u771f\u7684\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u4ef7\u503c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5347\u81f3$100\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u5173\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5df2100%\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002 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