{"id":255810,"date":"2026-03-11T14:55:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T06:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/prediction-markets-driven-by-insight-or-insider-information\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:04:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T07:04:01","slug":"prediction-markets-driven-by-insight-or-insider-information","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/prediction-markets-driven-by-insight-or-insider-information\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u9760\u773c\u5149\u8fd8\u662f\u5185\u5e55"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff08prediction market\uff09\u662f\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6295\u673a\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8f93\u8d62\u7ed1\u5b9a\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7a7a\u88ad\u4f0a\u6717\uff09\u6216\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u5982\u660e\u65e5\u80a1\u5e02\u5347\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u80dc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u7387\u662f75%\uff0c\u6b64\u6307\u6570\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c31\u662f$75\uff0c\u5982\u4f0a\u6717\u771f\u7684\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u4ef7\u503c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5347\u81f3$100\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u5173\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5df2100%\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

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