{"id":238309,"date":"2025-07-09T18:09:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/"},"modified":"2025-07-09T18:13:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:13:09","slug":"the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) 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\u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), 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