{"id":238309,"date":"2025-07-09T18:09:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/"},"modified":"2025-07-09T18:13:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:13:09","slug":"the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) 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\u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), 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leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS 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OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u552f\u6211\u72ec\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u613f\u5982\u8fc7\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u542f\u52a8\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002 \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u552f\u6211\u72ec\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u613f\u5982\u8fc7\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u542f\u52a8\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002 \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-09T10:09:54+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-09T10:13:09+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal 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OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 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\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), 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Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 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OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) 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Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) 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OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u552f\u6211\u72ec\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u613f\u5982\u8fc7\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u542f\u52a8\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002 \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-CN","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2025-07-09T18:09:54+08:00","dateModified":"2025-07-09T18:13:09+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-CN","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14 - HKU Business School","og:description":"\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u552f\u6211\u72ec\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u613f\u5982\u8fc7\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u542f\u52a8\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002 \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","article:published_time":"2025-07-09T10:09:54+00:00","article:modified_time":"2025-07-09T10:13:09+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14 - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u5728\u51e0\u756a\u5468\u8f6c\u548c\u6781\u9650\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6570\u901a\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u613f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u65e5\u7b7e\u7f72\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6cd5\u6848\u957f\u8fbe870\u9875\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6df1\u8fdc\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u5927\u201d\u5e76\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u4e3d\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5219\u5982\u7f8e\u4e3d\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u95ee\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8d5e\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u95fb(Fox News)\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u662f38%\u8d5e\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u5c5e\u6682\u65f6\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c06\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u7a0e\u6539\u4e3a\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u8d2f\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u8865\u8d22\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u4ece\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u533b\u7597\u8865\u52a9\u201d(Medicaid) \u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u598264\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5ba1\u6838\u6b21\u6570\u5c06\u66f4\u9891\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u4f24\u6b8b\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u533b\u7597\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u6709\u5173\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u7701\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7ea6780\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u9636\u5c42\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u8865\u5145\u8425\u517b\u63f4\u52a9\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5e45\u7ea630%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8865\u8d34\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u533b\u7597\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u8865\u52a9\u90fd\u51cf\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u9614\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7a0e\u540e\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f6c\u79fb\u540e (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8d8b\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u5360\u56fd\u6c11\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u540c\u671f\u4ece20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u603b\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u603b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7a77\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u540c\u4e00\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a0e\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7a77\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5bf9\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u548c\u8865\u8d34\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u89c6\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u62e5\u62b1\u4f20\u7edf\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u4ed6\u4e24\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u5e94\u4ed8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7ea65\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56fd\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u8fb9\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u7b3c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u51cf\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u8865\u8d34\u548c\u6e05\u6d01\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u53ca\u8fb9\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5219\u5e26\u67654.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u51c0\u8ba1\u67093.1\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u503a\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6574\u4e2aOBBBA\u4f1a\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a3.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002 \u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u8457\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65ad\u8ba8\u503a\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u603b\u91cf\u4e3a24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u540e\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u4e07\u4ebf\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u95e8\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u503a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea670%\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c30%\u4e3a\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u79ef\u6781\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fd8\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6309\u65f6\u6309\u91cf\u8fd8\u503a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u65e0\u987b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u53ca\u7f8e\u503a\u4ef7\u683c\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u7f13\u540e90\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u503a\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u91d1\u907f\u96be\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5c06\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u767e\u5e74\u957f\u671f\u65e0\u606f\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96be\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c2\u4e4e\u5404\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u8c08\u5224\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u53f7\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8bb8\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u89c6\u7ebf\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u8865\u5145\u6760\u6746\u6bd4\u7387\u201d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u65f6\u6bcb\u987b\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5b83\u4eec\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9887\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u51e0\u5343\u4ebf\u5230\u51e0\u4e07\u4ebf\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u4e07\u4ebf\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u8d1d\u6851\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e24\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u89c4\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4fbf\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u62c5\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u6324\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u51cf\u606f\u6301\u7eed\u89c2\u671b\u7684\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5927\u52a0\u8bad\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\u60c5\u51b5\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u51cf\u606f\u8fd8\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8bf4\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd8\u6709\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u914d\u201d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u552f\u6211\u72ec\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u613f\u5982\u8fc7\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u542f\u52a8\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u548c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002 \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb 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class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/"},{"label":"\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column-sc\/"},{"label":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u8d25\u7b14","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/238309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/238309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":238319,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/238309\/revisions\/238319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=238309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=238309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}