{"id":234868,"date":"2025-05-06T12:16:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T04:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T18:33:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T10:33:43","slug":"silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411<\/h5>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398<\/h5>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u7ed3\u8bed<\/h5>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-234868","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-ft-chinese-column-sc","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-sc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-sc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-06T04:16:03+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-15T10:33:43+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8bba\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8bba\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-sc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u7684\\u5371\\u4e0e\\u673a\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u7684\\u5371\\u4e0e\\u673a\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-sc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8bba\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/\",\"name\":\"\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u7684\\u5371\\u4e0e\\u673a - HKU Business School\",\"description\":\"2018\\u5e743\\u670822\\u65e5\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u6839\\u636e\\u201c301\\u8c03\\u67e5\\u201d\\u5bf9\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5546\\u54c1\\u52a0\\u5f81\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u65f6\\uff0c\\u5b66\\u754c\\u5bf9\\u201c\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u201d\\u4e00\\u8bcd\\u4ecd\\u9887\\u4e3a\\u8c28\\u614e\\uff0c\\u62c5\\u5fc3\\u4f1a\\u8fdb\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u6fc0\\u5316\\u77db\\u76fe\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\uff0c2025\\u5e744\\u6708\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7b7e\\u7f72\\u884c\\u653f\\u4ee4\\uff0c\\u5bf9180\\u591a\\u4e2a\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u548c\\u5730\\u533a\\u52a0\\u5f8110%\\u7684\\u201c\\u6700\\u4f4e\\u57fa\\u51c6\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u201d\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5bf9\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u97e9\\u56fd\\u7b49\\u76df\\u53cb\\u5f81\\u6536\\u8d85\\u8fc720%\\u7684\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u3002\\u6beb\\u65e0\\u7591\\u95ee\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u6380\\u8d77\\u7684\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u6218\\u5df2\\u7ecf\\u5728\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u4e4b\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5168\\u7403\\u8303\\u56f4\\uff0c\\u5f15\\u53d1\\u4e00\\u573a\\u540e\\u679c\\u96be\\u4ee5\\u9884\\u6d4b\\u7684\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u3002 \\u7b14\\u8005\\u8ba4\\u4e3a\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u8fd1\\u671f\\u7684\\u4e00\\u7cfb\\u5217\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u653f\\u7b56\\u867d\\u770b\\u4f3c\\u53cd\\u590d\\u65e0\\u5e38\\uff0c\\u5176\\u6838\\u5fc3\\u76ee\\u6807\\u5176\\u5b9e\\u5f88\\u660e\\u786e\\uff1a\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u662f\\u7f13\\u89e3\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u4e25\\u5cfb\\u7684\\u503a\\u52a1\\u5371\\u673a\\u3002\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u5927\\u5f81\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u4ee5\\u671f\\u589e\\u52a0\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u6536\\u5165\\uff0c\\u540c\\u65f6\\u4ee5\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u4e3a\\u7b79\\u7801\\u8feb\\u4f7f\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u8d2d\\u4e70\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u4ea7\\u54c1\\u3001\\u670d\\u52a1\\u3001\\u81ea\\u7136\\u8d44\\u6e90\\u53ca\\u519b\\u706b\\u7b49\\uff0c\\u589e\\u52a0\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u3002 \\u53e6\\u5916\\uff0c\\u7531\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u65b0\\u4efb\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u987e\\u95ee\\u7c73\\u5170(Stephan Miran) \\u63d0\\u51fa\\u7684\\u201c\\u6d77\\u6e56\\u5e84\\u56ed\\u534f\\u8bae\\u201d\\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\\uff09\\u8868\\u660e\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u8981\\u6c42\\u5916\\u56fd\\u592e\\u884c\\u51fa\\u552e\\u7f8e\\u5143\\u50a8\\u5907\\u4ee5\\u4ee4\\u7f8e\\u5143\\u8d2c\\u503c\\uff0c\\u540c\\u65f6\\u5404\\u56fd\\u8fd8\\u9700\\u8981\\u8d2d\\u4e70\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u8d85\\u957f\\u671f\\u56fd\\u503a\\uff0c\\u786e\\u4fdd\\u7f8e\\u503a\\u5e02\\u573a\\u7a33\\u5b9a\\uff0c\\u6700\\u7ec8\\u8fbe\\u5230\\u51cf\\u8f7b\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u503a\\u52a1\\u538b\\u529b\\u7684\\u76ee\\u7684\\u3002 \\u9700\\u8981\\u6ce8\\u610f\\u7684\\u662f\\uff0c\\u8fd9\\u6837\\u6fc0\\u8fdb\\u7684\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u653f\\u7b56\\u662f\\u5426\\u80fd\\u6709\\u6548\\u7f13\\u89e3\\u503a\\u52a1\\u538b\\u529b\\u4ecd\\u7136\\u662f\\u672a\\u77e5\\u7684\\u3002\\u591a\\u4f4d\\u77e5\\u540d\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u524d\\u8d22\\u653f\\u5b98\\u5458\\uff0c\\u5747\\u8ba4\\u4e3a\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u5728\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u5c06\\u9762\\u4e34\\u8f83\\u5927\\u7684\\u901a\\u80c0\\u538b\\u529b\\u751a\\u81f3\\u9677\\u5165\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u8870\\u9000\\u3002\\u56fd\\u9645\\u8d27\\u5e01\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7ec4\\u7ec7\\uff08IMF\\uff09\\u4e5f\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u5c06\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u589e\\u957f\\u9884\\u671f\\u4ece2.7%\\u8c03\\u4f4e\\u81f31.8%\\u3002 \\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u7b2c\\u4e8c\\u4e2a\\u76ee\\u7684\\uff0c\\u662f\\u900f\\u8fc7\\u6270\\u4e71\\u76ee\\u524d\\u5df2\\u7ecf\\u6210\\u5f62\\u7684\\u5168\\u7403\\u4f9b\\u5e94\\u94fe\\uff0c\\u524a\\u5f31\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5728\\u4f9b\\u5e94\\u94fe\\u7684\\u5730\\u4f4d\\uff0c\\u6291\\u5236\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u53d1\\u5c55\\u901f\\u5ea6\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u5f3a\\u5316\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u9886\\u5bfc\\u529b\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\u8fd9\\u4e2a\\u76ee\\u6807\\u540c\\u6837\\u6781\\u5177\\u6311\\u6218\\u6027\\u3002\\u81ea2018\\u5e74\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u8f6e\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u5f00\\u59cb\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u8d44\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u901a\\u8fc7\\u201c\\u4e2d\\u56fd+1\\u201d\\u7b56\\u7565\\uff08\\u5373\\u5728\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5efa\\u7acb\\u5907\\u4efd\\u751f\\u4ea7\\u57fa\\u5730\\uff09\\u548c\\u95f4\\u63a5\\u8d38\\u6613\\u7ed5\\u5f00\\u4e86\\u90e8\\u5206\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u58c1\\u5792\\u3002\\u8fd9\\u4e2a\\u539f\\u672c\\u610f\\u56fe\\u5b64\\u7acb\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7684\\u8ba1\\u5212\\uff0c\\u53cd\\u800c\\u4ee4\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u4e0e\\u4e1c\\u5357\\u4e9a\\uff0c\\u5357\\u7f8e\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u4e2d\\u4e1c\\u7b49\\u5730\\u7684\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u5c55\\u5f00\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u591a\\u7684\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6765\\u5f80\\uff0c\\u5efa\\u7acb\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u6df1\\u5165\\u7684\\u6295\\u8d44\\u4e0e\\u5408\\u4f5c\\u5173\\u7cfb\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u7684\\u4f9b\\u5e94\\u94fe\\u91cd\\u6784\\u8ba1\\u5212\\u5e76\\u672a\\u5b8c\\u5168\\u594f\\u6548\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u53cc\\u65b9\\u7684\\u672a\\u6765\\u8d70\\u5411 \\u77ed\\u671f\\u5185\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u4f1a\\u6839\\u636e\\u56fd\\u9645\\u53cd\\u5e94\\u8c03\\u6574\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5bf9\\u90e8\\u5206\\u793a\\u597d\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u964d\\u4f4e\\u7a0e\\u7387\\u3002\\u4f46\\u957f\\u671f\\u6765\\u770b\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u56fd\\u5bf9\\u534e\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u4ecd\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u9ad8\\u4e8e2018\\u5e74\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002\\u82e5\\u4e24\\u5927\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u6301\\u7eed\\u9ad8\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u5bf9\\u6297\\uff0c\\u5373\\u4fbf\\u4ec5\\u6301\\u7eed\\u6570\\u6708\\uff0c\\u4e5f\\u5c06\\u5bf9\\u53cc\\u65b9\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u9020\\u6210\\u4e25\\u91cd\\u4f24\\u5bb3\\uff0c\\u6700\\u7ec8\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u4e00\\u65b9\\u4e0d\\u5f97\\u4e0d\\u8ba9\\u6b65\\u3002 \\u9762\\u5bf9\\u8d38\\u6613\\u58c1\\u5792\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u8d44\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u5e94\\u7ee7\\u7eed\\u63a8\\u8fdb\\u201c\\u4e2d\\u56fd+1\\u201d\\u7b56\\u7565\\uff0c\\u5f00\\u62d3\\u4e0d\\u540c\\u7684\\u5e02\\u573a\\u4ee5\\u63d0\\u5347\\u5e94\\u5bf9\\u5730\\u7f18\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u98ce\\u9669\\u7684\\u80fd\\u529b\\u3002\\u76ee\\u524d\\u56fd\\u5185\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u7ade\\u4e89\\u6108\\u52a0\\u6fc0\\u70c8\\uff0c\\u201c\\u4e0d\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u5c31\\u51fa\\u5c40\\u201d\\u5df2\\u6210\\u4e3a\\u8bb8\\u591a\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u5171\\u8bc6\\u3002\\u4f46\\u9700\\u8981\\u63d0\\u9192\\u7684\\u662f\\uff0c\\u201c\\u4e71\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u201d\\u540c\\u6837\\u503c\\u5f97\\u8b66\\u60d5\\u3002\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5e02\\u573a\\u5e76\\u975e\\u4e07\\u80fd\\u89e3\\u836f\\uff0c\\u6587\\u5316\\u51b2\\u7a81\\u3001\\u52b3\\u5de5\\u95ee\\u9898\\u3001\\u653f\\u7b56\\u5408\\u89c4\\u7b49\\u6311\\u6218\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u6bd4\\u56fd\\u5185\\u7ade\\u4e89\\u66f4\\u590d\\u6742\\u3002\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u5bb6\\u9700\\u7406\\u6027\\u8bc4\\u4f30\\u6295\\u8d44\\u56de\\u62a5\\u7387\\uff0c\\u660e\\u786e\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u76ee\\u6807\\uff0c\\u907f\\u514d\\u76f2\\u76ee\\u6269\\u5f20\\u3002 \\u6b64\\u5916\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5e9e\\u5927\\u7684\\u5185\\u9700\\u5e02\\u573a\\u4e3a\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u63d0\\u4f9b\\u4e86\\u8f6c\\u578b\\u7a7a\\u95f4\\u3002\\u957f\\u671f\\u6765\\u770b\\uff0c\\u56fd\\u5185\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u9700\\u6c42\\u4e0e\\u53d1\\u5c55\\u7a7a\\u95f4\\u6bd4\\u8f83\\u4e50\\u89c2\\u3002\\u5728\\u4eba\\u5de5\\u667a\\u80fd\\u3001\\u9ad8\\u7aef\\u5236\\u9020\\u7b49\\u884c\\u4e1a\\u7684\\u6280\\u672f\\u521b\\u65b0\\u4ee4\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u7684\\u5e02\\u573a\\u7ade\\u4e89\\u529b\\u5927\\u5e45\\u63d0\\u5347\\u3002\\u800c\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u4e5f\\u79ef\\u6781\\u63d0\\u4f9b\\u653f\\u7b56\\u652f\\u6301\\uff0c\\u8fd1\\u671f\\u5df2\\u9646\\u7eed\\u63a8\\u51fa\\u4e86\\u5305\\u62ec\\u201c\\u4ee5\\u65e7\\u6362\\u65b0\\u201d\\u3001\\u6570\\u7801\\u4ea7\\u54c1\\u56fd\\u5bb6\\u8865\\u8d34\\u7b49\\u63d0\\u632f\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u7684\\u63aa\\u65bd\\uff0c\\u540c\\u65f6\\u4e5f\\u8ba1\\u5212\\u901a\\u8fc7\\u80b2\\u513f\\u8865\\u8d34\\u3001\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u517b\\u8001\\u91d1\\u7b49\\u9014\\u5f84\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u6536\\u5165\\u3002\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u5b63\\u5ea6\\u7684\\u56fd\\u5185\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u8d85\\u8fc7\\u6b64\\u524d\\u9884\\u671f\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u89c1\\u5404\\u9879\\u4fc3\\u8fdb\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u7684\\u63aa\\u65bd\\u5df2\\u521d\\u89c1\\u6210\\u6548\\u3002 \\u56fd\\u5185\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u6f5c\\u529b\\u5c1a\\u5f85\\u53d1\\u6398 \\u4e0d\\u8fc7\\uff0c\\u5f53\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u5f00\\u59cb\\u5f71\\u54cd\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u540e\\uff0c\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u662f\\u5426\\u80fd\\u7a33\\u6b65\\u5347\\u6e29\\u4ecd\\u7136\\u9700\\u8981\\u89c2\\u5bdf\\u3002\\u53e6\\u5916\\uff0c\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u4e4b\\u540e\\u7684\\u6536\\u5165\\u589e\\u957f\\u653e\\u7f13\\uff0c\\u623f\\u5e02\\u8d70\\u5f31\\u7b49\\u56e0\\u7d20\\u4e5f\\u662f\\u4ee4\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u75b2\\u8f6f\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u56e0\\u7d20\\u3002\\u518d\\u52a0\\u4e0a\\u5730\\u7f18\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u548c\\u56fd\\u9645\\u8d38\\u6613\\u7684\\u51b2\\u51fb\\uff0c\\u77ed\\u671f\\u5185\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u96be\\u6709\\u5927\\u5e45\\u63d0\\u5347\\u3002\\u5728\\u6b64\\u671f\\u95f4\\uff0c\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u4ecd\\u9700\\u8981\\u4e3b\\u52a8\\u628a\\u63e1\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5e02\\u573a\\uff0c\\u5e76\\u8c28\\u614e\\u8c03\\u6574\\u81ea\\u8eab\\u7b56\\u7565\\u3002 \\u6d88\\u8d39\\u96be\\u4ee5\\u5feb\\u901f\\u63d0\\u5347\\u7684\\u4e00\\u4e2a\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u539f\\u56e0\\u662f\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u6781\\u9ad8\\u7684\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\u30022024\\u5e74\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\u8d85\\u8fc743%\\uff0c\\u4e3a\\u5168\\u7403\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f53\\u5f53\\u4e2d\\u6700\\u9ad8\\u3002 \\u800c\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u4eba\\u5747\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u652f\\u51fa\\u6bd4\\u91cd\\u4ec5\\u4e3a46%\\uff0c\\u4f4e\\u4e8e56%\\u7684\\u4e16\\u754c\\u5e73\\u5747\\u6c34\\u5e73\\uff0c\\u66f4\\u8fdc\\u4f4e\\u4e8e\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f5360%-70%\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002\\u4e8b\\u5b9e\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u4ece90\\u5e74\\u4ee3\\u4ee5\\u6765\\uff0c\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\u5c31\\u4e00\\u76f4\\u5904\\u4e8e\\u9ad8\\u4f4d\\uff0c\\u4e14\\u5728\\u91d1\\u878d\\u5371\\u673a\\u3001\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u7b49\\u5371\\u673a\\u65f6\\u671f\\u8fd8\\u4f1a\\u9ad8\\u4e8e\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u5e74\\u4efd\\u3002 \\u591a\\u5e74\\u6765\\u5f88\\u591a\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\u5c1d\\u8bd5\\u89e3\\u91ca\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u9ad8\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\u7684\\u6210\\u56e0\\uff0c\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u9645\\u8d27\\u5e01\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7ec4\\u7ec7\\u524d\\u9996\\u5e2d\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\u5e03\\u5170\\u4e4d\\u5f97\\uff08Olivier Blanchard\\uff09\\u57282006\\u5e74\\u5c31\\u66fe\\u53d1\\u8868\\u6587\\u7ae0\\u8ba8\\u8bba\\u3002\\u4ed6\\u8ba4\\u4e3a\\u5927\\u4f17\\u76f8\\u4fe1\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4f1a\\u6301\\u7eed\\u9ad8\\u901f\\u589e\\u957f\\u800c\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u5c06\\u5feb\\u901f\\u4e0b\\u964d\\uff0c\\u52a0\\u4e0a\\u793e\\u4f1a\\u798f\\u5229\\u7f51\\u5c1a\\u672a\\u5b8c\\u5584\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u591a\\u6570\\u4eba\\u9009\\u62e9\\u901a\\u8fc7\\u201c\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u517b\\u8001\\u201d\\u6765\\u5bf9\\u6297\\u672a\\u6765\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u51fa\\u73b0\\u7684\\u98ce\\u9669\\u3002\\u53e6\\u59162000\\u5e74\\u4ee3\\u521d\\u671f\\u623f\\u5730\\u4ea7\\u5e02\\u573a\\u5feb\\u901f\\u6269\\u5f20\\u53ca\\u521b\\u4e1a\\u6d6a\\u6f6e\\u5174\\u8d77\\uff0c\\u5927\\u4f17\\u5173\\u4e8e\\u8d2d\\u623f\\u53ca\\u521b\\u4e1a\\u7684\\u8ba1\\u5212\\u4e5f\\u4ee4\\u5f88\\u591a\\u4eba\\u9009\\u62e9\\u589e\\u52a0\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u800c\\u9650\\u5236\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u3002 \\u591a\\u6570\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u5bb6\\u8ba4\\u540c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u5e94\\u8be5\\u8bbe\\u6cd5\\u964d\\u4f4e\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\uff0c\\u91ca\\u653e\\u66f4\\u591a\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u6f5c\\u529b\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\u8fc7\\u53bb\\u4e8c\\u4e09\\u5341\\u5e74\\uff0c\\u623f\\u4ef7\\u9ad8\\u4f01\\uff0c\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u964d\\u4f4e\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u5360\\u6bd4\\u9ad8\\uff0c\\u6536\\u5165\\u589e\\u957f\\u6709\\u9650\\u7b49\\u5bfc\\u81f4\\u9ad8\\u50a8\\u84c4\\u7387\\u7684\\u6761\\u4ef6\\u6301\\u7eed\\u5b58\\u5728\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u9636\\u6bb5\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\u5f00\\u59cb\\u540e\\uff0c\\u4ece\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u5230\\u4f01\\u4e1a\\u90fd\\u5f00\\u59cb\\u610f\\u8bc6\\u5230\\u8fc7\\u5ea6\\u4f9d\\u8d56\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u7684\\u6a21\\u5f0f\\u4ee4\\u81ea\\u8eab\\u5f88\\u5bb9\\u6613\\u4f1a\\u53d7\\u5230\\u5730\\u7f18\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u98ce\\u9669\\u7684\\u5f71\\u54cd\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u5e94\\u8be5\\u8f6c\\u800c\\u52a0\\u5927\\u529b\\u5ea6\\u5f00\\u53d1\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5e02\\u573a\\u30022020\\u5e74\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u63d0\\u51fa\\u7684\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u201c\\u53cc\\u5faa\\u73af\\u201d\\u6b63\\u662f\\u5c06\\u66f4\\u591a\\u8d44\\u6e90\\u548c\\u7cbe\\u529b\\u6295\\u5165\\u56fd\\u5185\\u5e02\\u573a\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u3002\\u65b0\\u4e00\\u8f6e\\u7684\\u8d38\\u6613\\u6218\\uff0c\\u867d\\u7136\\u4f1a\\u5e26\\u6765\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u591a\\u7684\\u6311\\u6218\\u4e0e\\u4e0d\\u786e\\u5b9a\\u6027\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u540c\\u65f6\\u4e5f\\u5f88\\u6709\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u521b\\u9020\\u65b0\\u7684\\u673a\\u4f1a\\uff0c\\u6fc0\\u53d1\\u56fd\\u5185\\u65b0\\u7684\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u6f5c\\u529b\\u3002\\u5728\\u4ee5\\u65e7\\u6362\\u65b0\\uff0c\\u589e\\u52a0\\u8865\\u8d34\\u7b49\\u624b\\u6bb5\\u4e4b\\u540e\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u4ee5\\u9884\\u89c1\\u672a\\u6765\\u5404\\u7ea7\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u4f1a\\u8fdb\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u901a\\u8fc7\\u53d1\\u653e\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u5238\\uff0c\\u5229\\u606f\\u6216\\u7a0e\\u8d4b\\u51cf\\u514d\\u7b49\\u624b\\u6bb5\\u8fdb\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u523a\\u6fc0\\u6d88\\u8d39\\u3002 \\u7ed3\\u8bed \\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u5173\\u7a0e\\u653f\\u7b56\\u975e\\u4e00\\u65f6\\u5174\\u8d77\\uff0c\\u800c\\u662f\\u4e00\\u573a\\u76ee\\u6807\\u660e\\u786e\\u7684\\u6218\\u7565\\u884c\\u52a8\\u3002\\u5bf9\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u77ed\\u671f\\u538b\\u529b\\u867d\\u5927\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u957f\\u671f\\u6765\\u770b\\uff0c\\u901a\\u8fc7\\u4ea7\\u4e1a\\u94fe\\u97e7\\u6027\\u5efa\\u8bbe\\u3001\\u5185\\u9700\\u5e02\\u573a\\u6316\\u6398\\u548c\\u7406\\u6027\\u51fa\\u6d77\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u4ecd\\u5177\\u5907\\u8f83\\u5f3a\\u7684\\u6297\\u98ce\\u9669\\u80fd\\u529b\\u3002\\u5173\\u952e\\u5728\\u4e8e\\u4fdd\\u6301\\u6218\\u7565\\u5b9a\\u529b\\uff0c\\u5728\\u53d8\\u5c40\\u4e2d\\u5bfb\\u627e\\u65b0\\u7684\\u589e\\u957f\\u70b9\\u3002 \\u9093\\u5e0c\\u709c\\u6559\\u6388 \\u6e2f\\u5927\\u7ecf\\u7ba1\\u5b66\\u9662\\u526f\\u9662\\u957f\\uff08\\u5bf9\\u5916\\u4e8b\\u52a1\\uff09\\u3001\\u51af\\u56fd\\u7ecf\\u51af\\u56fd\\u7eb6\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7ecf\\u6d4e\\u5b66\\u6559\\u6388\\u3001\\u4e9a\\u6d32\\u73af\\u7403\\u7814\\u7a76\\u6240\\u6240\\u957f \\uff08\\u672c\\u6587\\u540c\\u65f6\\u4e8e\\u4e8c\\u96f6\\u4e8c\\u4e94\\u5e74\\u4e94\\u6708\\u4e00\\u65e5\\u8f7d\\u4e8e\\u300aFT\\u4e2d\\u6587\\u7f51\\u300b\\u201c\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8bba\\u201d\\u4e13\\u680f\\uff09\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-06T12:16:03+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-15T18:33:43+08:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/sc\\\/#organization\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School","description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"google-site-verification":"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo","miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/#listItem","name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#listItem","name":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/#listItem","name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba"}}]},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#organization","name":"HKU Business School","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","name":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School","description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-CN","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2025-05-06T12:16:03+08:00","dateModified":"2025-10-15T18:33:43+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-CN","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School","og:description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","article:published_time":"2025-05-06T04:16:03+00:00","article:modified_time":"2025-10-15T10:33:43+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u636e\u201c301\u8c03\u67e5\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4ecd\u9887\u4e3a\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7b7e\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5bf9180\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u52a0\u5f8110%\u7684\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5f81\u6536\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e00\u573a\u540e\u679c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u3002 \u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u867d\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6807\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7f13\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ee5\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u7b79\u7801\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u53ca\u519b\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u7c73\u5170(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5404\u56fd\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d85\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230\u51cf\u8f7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7f13\u89e3\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u5747\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9884\u671f\u4ece2.7%\u8c03\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u6270\u4e71\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5316\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u540c\u6837\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5907\u4efd\u751f\u4ea7\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d38\u6613\u7ed5\u5f00\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u58c1\u5792\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u672c\u610f\u56fe\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6765\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u6784\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u53cd\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ec5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u58c1\u5792\uff0c\u4e2d\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd+1\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u201c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u201d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e71\u51fa\u6d77\u201d\u540c\u6837\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u975e\u4e07\u80fd\u89e3\u836f\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u52b3\u5de5\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u89c4\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u56fd\u5185\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f6c\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u79ef\u6781\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9646\u7eed\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\u201d\u3001\u6570\u7801\u4ea7\u54c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba1\u5212\u901a\u8fc7\u80b2\u513f\u8865\u8d34\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5404\u9879\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u89c1\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u56fd\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u53d1\u6398 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u51fa\u53e3\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a33\u6b65\u5347\u6e29\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8c28\u614e\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8d39\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u56fd\u5185\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc743%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u4ec5\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f5360%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7f51\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u50a8\u84c4\u517b\u8001\u201d\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u4f17\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u623f\u53ca\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u540c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\uff0c\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e94\u8be5\u8f6c\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u6b63\u662f\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6fc0\u53d1\u56fd\u5185\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u65e7\u6362\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u8865\u8d34\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u5404\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u653e\u6d88\u8d39\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a0e\u8d4b\u51cf\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002 \u7ed3\u8bed \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u65f6\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u5185\u9700\u5e02\u573a\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u6297\u98ce\u9669\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u4fdd\u6301\u6218\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u53d8\u5c40\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u3002 \u9093\u5e0c\u709c\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff08\u5bf9\u5916\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09\u3001\u51af\u56fd\u7ecf\u51af\u56fd\u7eb6\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u73af\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\u300b\u201c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"234868","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"WebPage","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":0,"ai":null,"created":"2025-05-06 04:18:17","updated":"2025-10-15 10:33:44","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/\" title=\"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba\">\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/"},{"label":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8bba","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-sc\/"},{"label":"\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5371\u4e0e\u673a","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":245359,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234868\/revisions\/245359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}