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tariffs)\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u6f14\u7ece\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5192\u5929\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5927\u4e0d\u97ea\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u957f\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u56fd\u63a0\u593a\u7684\u865a\u5047\u9648\u8ff0\u4e3a\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u5411\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f81\u6536\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5c5e\u5386\u53f2\u4e4b\u6700\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba1\u5212\u5374\u4e0d\u79bb\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u8349\u7387\u968f\u610f\u548c\u524d\u540e\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u672c\u8272\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53cd\u6620\u5916\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u5bf9\u5f85\uff0c\u90a3\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u53c8\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ecd\u8981\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u5f81\u653610%\u5173\u7a0e\uff1f\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53ea\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5219\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u67090.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u987a\u5dee\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5546\u54c1\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee1.22\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6f14\u8bf4\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u968f\u610f\u5984\u4e3a\u505a\u6cd5\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u4e13\u4e1a\u5374\u6b20\u7f3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6839\u636e\uff0c\u8bf4\u662f\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u5916\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5173\u7a0e\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u5bb9\u5374\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u77e5\u6089\u6709\u5173\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u540e\u90fd\u5927\u4e3a\u54d7\u7136\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u53ca\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7eb3\u74e6\u7f57 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href=\"#\u6ce81\">\u3010\u6ce81\u3011<\/a>\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5165 4\u67082\u65e5\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5982\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u6b2110%\u3001\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8f66\u548c\u94a2\u6750\u94dd\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u8fbe22.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u4e8e1930\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u201c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u5173\u7a0e\u6cd5\u201d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9c81\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u5404\u79cd\u5173\u7a0e\u5171\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u4ef7 2.3%\u3001\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6237\u5e73\u5747\u51cf\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5b9e\u8d28\u589e\u957f\u73870.9%\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u672a\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u65e2\u7136\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u8f83\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u635f\u4f24\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u4e50\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c42\u5c42\u52a0\u7801\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ece\u4e24\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u4f20\u7edf\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c2025\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Project 2025)<a href=\"#\u6ce82\">\u3010\u6ce82\u3011<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u521a\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u5170 (Stephen Miran) \u7f16\u5199\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u667a\u5e93\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<a href=\"#\u6ce83\">\u3010\u6ce83\u3011<\/a>\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7c73\u5170\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u81ea\u4ece1971\u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u8131\u94a9\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f17\u592e\u884c\u4ecd\u6301\u6709\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u65e5\u8d8b\u6210\u4e3a\u5404\u592e\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u50a8\u5907\u3002\u968f\u8457\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u9700\u6c42\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u53e6\u65b9\u9762\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5165\u53e3\uff0c\u6253\u51fb\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u8d1f\u62c5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002 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privilege)\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u5982\u4f55\u6d41\u5411\u5916\u56fd\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7c73\u5170\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u597d\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u8981\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4fbf\u538b\u6291\u6d88\u8d39\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u5c06\u9980\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u3002\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u9006\u5dee\u7531\u53d1\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9\u5916\u56fd\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u7c73\u5170\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u7528\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u6c47\u7387\u6765\u6539\u53d8\u5f53\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u60f3\u7f8e\u56fd\u653e\u5f03\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4eab\u6709\u56a3\u5f20\u7684\u7279\u6743\u3002\u524d\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u82e5\u8981\u53d1\u5c55\u66ff\u4ee3\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u5916\u56fd\u6765\u57cb\u5355\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ea4\u6613\u6027\u7684\u505a\u4e8b\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e00\u8109\u76f8\u627f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5747\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5bf9\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u52a0\u5f81\u6240\u8c13\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u8be5\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u662f\u987a\u5dee\u6216\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u8d38\u987a\u5dee\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u6c47\uff0c\u4fbf\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u6216\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5426\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u672c\u610f\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u5f97\u800c\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u7a0e\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8d2d\u4e70\u5916\u56fd\u8d27\uff0c \u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u539f\u610f\uff0c\u65e8\u5728 \u7ed9\u56fd\u5185\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e00\u4e9b\u751f\u5b58\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u660e\u663e\u6307\u51fa\u5173\u7a0e\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u800c\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u627f\u62c5\u3002\u4f46\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u6709\u8fdd\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u9009\u6218\u5f97\u80dc\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u56e0\u901a\u80c0\u800c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u591a\u56fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u53ca\u672c\u571f\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5c31\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u7c73\u5170\u63d0\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u62b5\u6d88\u201d(currency offset)\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f81\u6536\u5173\u7a0e\u540e\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4f1a\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u6216\u4f1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u8d2c\u503c\u6765\u4fc3\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u56e0\u8d2c\u503c\u800c\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u7c73\u5170\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e5f\u7b97\u662f\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa2018-19\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u67e5\u770b\u6709\u5173\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u540c\u4ea7\u54c1\u5f81\u6536\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u7387\uff0c\u603b\u5e73\u5747\u4f4e\u4e8e20%\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u4ece2018\u5e74\u4e2d\u81f32019\u5e74\u5e95\u8d2c\u503c\u4e86\u7ea610%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5173\u7a0e\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u8986\u76d6\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7a0e\u7387\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u53ca\u768422.5%\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u81ea\u7136\u5927\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u3002\u7c73\u5170\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u62b5\u6d88\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u4ee5\u7f13\u548c\u591a\u5c11\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7591\u95ee\u3002 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Accord)\u30021985\u5e74\u7684\u5e7f\u573a\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u8d77\u56e0\u4ea6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u897f\u6b27\u8bf8\u56fd\u5c06\u8d27\u5e01\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u53d8\u76f8\u8ba9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u5411\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u73b0\u65f6\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u5728\u8003\u8651\u91cd\u65bd\u6545\u6280\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5f81\u6536\u5173\u7a0e\u673a\u5236\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0e40\u5e74\u524d\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5e76\u975e\u6e90\u4e8e\u5b83\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4f17\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u90fd\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u52a0\u5f3a\u7ba1\u63a7\uff0c \u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f1a\u5f15\u5165\u56fd\u9632\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u597d\u5c06\u8d27\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c 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\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u7a0e\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5bf9\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u529e\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u56e0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u817e\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u817e\u624d\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u6ce81\" name=\"\u6ce81\"><\/a>\u6ce81\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u6ce82\" name=\"\u6ce82\"><\/a>\u6ce82: <a href=\"https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u6ce83\" name=\"\u6ce83\"><\/a>\u6ce83\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-233363","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-hkej-column-sc","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-sc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-sc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-sc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - 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\u81f3\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u968f\u610f\u5984\u4e3a\u505a\u6cd5\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u4e13\u4e1a\u5374\u6b20\u7f3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6839\u636e\uff0c\u8bf4\u662f\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u5916\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5173\u7a0e\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u5bb9\u5374\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u77e5\u6089\u6709\u5173\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u540e\u90fd\u5927\u4e3a\u54d7\u7136\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u53ca\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7eb3\u74e6\u7f57 (Peter Navarro)\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u4e3a\u7f57\u6069\u00b7\u74e6\u62c9(Ron Vara)\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6765\u786e\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c 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4\u67082\u65e5\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5982\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u6b2110%\u3001\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8f66\u548c\u94a2\u6750\u94dd\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u8fbe22.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u4e8e1930\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u201c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u5173\u7a0e\u6cd5\u201d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9c81\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u5404\u79cd\u5173\u7a0e\u5171\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u4ef7 2.3%\u3001\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6237\u5e73\u5747\u51cf\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5b9e\u8d28\u589e\u957f\u73870.9%\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u672a\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u65e2\u7136\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u8f83\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u635f\u4f24\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u4e50\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c42\u5c42\u52a0\u7801\uff1f \u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ece\u4e24\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u4f20\u7edf\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c2025\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Project 2025)\u3010\u6ce82\u3011\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u521a\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u5170 (Stephen Miran) \u7f16\u5199\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u667a\u5e93\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3010\u6ce83\u3011\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002 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\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u7a0e\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5bf9\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u529e\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u56e0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u817e\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u817e\u624d\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u3002 \u6ce81\uff1ahttps:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/ \u6ce82: https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf \u6ce83\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/behind-trumps-tariff-hammer\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-09T03:58:14+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-09T04:40:54+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e\u5927\u68d2\u7684\u80cc\u540e - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u7684\u6240\u8c13\u7f8e\u56fd\u89e3\u653e\u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f81\u6536\u7684\u6240\u8c13\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e(reciprocal tariffs)\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u6f14\u7ece\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5192\u5929\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5927\u4e0d\u97ea\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u957f\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u56fd\u63a0\u593a\u7684\u865a\u5047\u9648\u8ff0\u4e3a\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u5411\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5f81\u6536\u989d\u5916\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5c5e\u5386\u53f2\u4e4b\u6700\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba1\u5212\u5374\u4e0d\u79bb\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8d2f\u8349\u7387\u968f\u610f\u548c\u524d\u540e\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u672c\u8272\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53cd\u6620\u5916\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u5bf9\u5f85\uff0c\u90a3\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u53c8\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ecd\u8981\u5bf9\u6fb3\u6d32\u5f81\u653610%\u5173\u7a0e\uff1f\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53ea\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5219\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u67090.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u987a\u5dee\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5546\u54c1\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee1.22\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6f14\u8bf4\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002 \u81f3\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u968f\u610f\u5984\u4e3a\u505a\u6cd5\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u4e13\u4e1a\u5374\u6b20\u7f3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6839\u636e\uff0c\u8bf4\u662f\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u5916\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5173\u7a0e\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u5bb9\u5374\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u77e5\u6089\u6709\u5173\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u540e\u90fd\u5927\u4e3a\u54d7\u7136\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u53ca\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7eb3\u74e6\u7f57 (Peter Navarro)\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u4e3a\u7f57\u6069\u00b7\u74e6\u62c9(Ron Vara)\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6765\u786e\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c \u4f46\u540e\u6765\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6240\u8c13\u4e13\u5bb6\u5b50\u865a\u4e4c\u6709\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u675c\u64b0\u7684\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u62ac\u9ad8\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u8ba4\u53d7\u6027\u3002\u7eb3\u74e6\u7f57\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u65f6\u5df2\u6548\u529b\u767d\u5bab\uff0c\u672a\u77e5\u8fd9\u6b21\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u624b\u7b14\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u770b\u6765\u8fd9\u6bb5\u63d2\u66f2\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5c06\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u7b11\u8bdd\u3002 \u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u7a0e\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u77ac\u5373\u5f15\u53d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9707\u8361\u3002\u6309\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u9884\u7b97\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4(Yale Budget Lab)\u3010\u6ce81\u3011\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5165 4\u67082\u65e5\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5982\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u6b2110%\u3001\u5bf9\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8f66\u548c\u94a2\u6750\u94dd\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u5173\u7a0e\u8fbe22.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u4e8e1930\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u201c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u5173\u7a0e\u6cd5\u201d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9c81\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u5404\u79cd\u5173\u7a0e\u5171\u4f1a\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u4ef7 2.3%\u3001\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6237\u5e73\u5747\u51cf\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5b9e\u8d28\u589e\u957f\u73870.9%\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u672a\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u65e2\u7136\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u8f83\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u635f\u4f24\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u4e50\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c42\u5c42\u52a0\u7801\uff1f \u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ece\u4e24\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u4f20\u7edf\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u9488\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c2025\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(Project 2025)\u3010\u6ce82\u3011\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u521a\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u5170 (Stephen Miran) \u7f16\u5199\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u667a\u5e93\u53d1\u8868\uff0c \u5185\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3010\u6ce83\u3011\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002 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