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\u81f34%\uff0c\u53cd\u89c2\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ca\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u5374\u8fbe4%\u81f36%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9999\u6e2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u75ab\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5e76\u5931\u53bb\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u57ce\u5e02\u5192\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u8fc5\u901f\u52a8\u6447\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u7279\u533a\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u6548\uf961\u53ca\u4eba\uf98a\u8d44\u6e90\u8d28\u7d20\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u96be\u4ee5\uf9a8\u4eba\uf914\u89c2\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f9b\u6c42\u9519\u914d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\uf961\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u4e0b\ufa09\u3002\u8fd9\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff08revenue buoyancy\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5f00\u652f\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73b0\u540d\u4e49\u521a\u6027\uff08nominal rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/p>\n<p>Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#8217;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong>\u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb\u00a0\u00a0 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id=\"tgtAlignment_16\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u4fe1<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_17\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u62a5<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_18\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u300b\u201c<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_19\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u9f99<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_20\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u864e<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_21\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u5c71<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_22\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u4e0b<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_23\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u201d<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_24\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u4e13<\/span><span class=\"ts-alignment-element\" id=\"tgtAlignment_25\" data-is-focusable=\"true\">\u680f<\/span><span 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\u81f34%\uff0c\u53cd\u89c2\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ca\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u5374\u8fbe4%\u81f36%\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u75ab\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5e76\u5931\u53bb\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u57ce\u5e02\u5192\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u8fc5\u901f\u52a8\u6447\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u7279\u533a\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u6548\uf961\u53ca\u4eba\uf98a\u8d44\u6e90\u8d28\u7d20\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u96be\u4ee5\uf9a8\u4eba\uf914\u89c2\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f9b\u6c42\u9519\u914d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\uf961\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u4e0b\ufa09\u3002\u8fd9\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff08revenue buoyancy\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5f00\u652f\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73b0\u540d\u4e49\u521a\u6027\uff08nominal rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9996\u5e2d\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u4e61\u8bae\u5c40\u5f53\u7136\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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\u81f34%\uff0c\u53cd\u89c2\u5357\u97e9\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ca\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u5374\u8fbe4%\u81f36%\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u75ab\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u5e76\u5931\u53bb\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u57ce\u5e02\u5192\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u8fc5\u901f\u52a8\u6447\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u7279\u533a\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u6548\uf961\u53ca\u4eba\uf98a\u8d44\u6e90\u8d28\u7d20\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u96be\u4ee5\uf9a8\u4eba\uf914\u89c2\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f9b\u6c42\u9519\u914d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\uf961\u6b63\u9010\u6e10\u4e0b\ufa09\u3002\u8fd9\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\uff08revenue buoyancy\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5f00\u652f\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73b0\u540d\u4e49\u521a\u6027\uff08nominal rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9996\u5e2d\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u4e61\u8bae\u5c40\u5f53\u7136\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u9644\u5c5e\u5b66\u9662\u8bb2\u5e08 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e8c\u6708\u4e94\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/tackling-fiscal-deficit-the-pros-and-cons-of-government-bonds\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-06T02:51:04+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-06T02:57:31+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u8d22\u8d64\u5f53\u52a1\u6025 \u53d1\u503a\u53cc\u5203\u5251 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u7279\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd16\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\u4e2d\uff0c\u67095\u4e2a\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d85\u8fc75\u5343\u4ebf\u5143\u3010\u56fe\u3011\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u6b64\u4e00\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u53f8\u53f8\u957f\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u6708\u5e95\u53d1\u8868\u65b0\u4e00\u4efd\u300a\u8d22\u653f\u9884\u7b97\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u6709\u4f55\u5999\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u4ed8\uff1f 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9996\u5e2d\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u4e61\u8bae\u5c40\u5f53\u7136\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong's Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9996\u5e2d\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u4e61\u8bae\u5c40\u5f53\u7136\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u4f1a\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u5355\u4ee5\u524a\u51cf\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8d22\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u4f1a\u6325\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u957f\u52a8\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong's Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9996\u5e2d\u8bb2\u5e08\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u4e61\u8bae\u5c40\u5f53\u7136\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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