{"id":227372,"date":"2025-01-15T14:35:23","date_gmt":"2025-01-15T06:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/the-arrival-of-the-trump-2-0-era\/"},"modified":"2025-01-15T14:46:23","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T06:46:23","slug":"the-arrival-of-the-trump-2-0-era","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-arrival-of-the-trump-2-0-era\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u542f\u5e55"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fd8\u6709\u4e94\u5929\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<span>8<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ee5\u534a\u51b7\u95e8\u59ff\u6001\u5728\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u4e86\u5e0c\u62c9\u8389\uff0c\u5728\u7f3a\u4e4f\u653f\u575b\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0b\u767b\u4e0a\u603b\u7edf\u5b9d\u5ea7\u3002\u5c31\u804c\u5178\u793c\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5728\u7740\u610f\u4e8e\u51fa\u5e2d\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ed6\u5374\u6709\u5907\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u5f53\u9009\u540e\u8fc5\u5373\u7ec4\u6210\u5185\u9601\uff0c\u5e76\u9ad8\u8c03\u5730\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c06\u8981\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5982\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u9886\u571f\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u63a5\u89c1\u591a\u4f4d\u5916\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u53ca\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u603b\u88c1\uff0c\u6d77\u6e56\u5e84\u56ed\u4e00\u65f6\u51a0\u76d6\u4e91\u96c6\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\u7edc\u7ece\u4e0d\u7edd\uff0c\u4e00\u756a\u672a\u5c31\u4efb\u5df2\u6307\u70b9\u6c5f\u5c71\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\uff0c\u65e0\u89c6\u73b0\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5f97\u529b\u52a9\u624b\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u4ea6\u4e0d\u7518\u540e\u4eba\uff0c\u516c\u7136\u79f0\u5fb7\u56fd\u603b\u7406\u8096\u5c14\u8328\u4e3a\u8822\u624d\uff0c\u5e76\u516c\u5f00\u652f\u6301\u6781\u53f3\u7684\u53e6\u7c7b\u9009\u62e9\u515a\u3002\u4ed6\u53c8\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u653f\u5ba2\u76d8\u7b97\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0b\u6b21\u5927\u9009\u524d\u4fc3\u4f7f\u73b0\u4efb\u9996\u76f8\u5de5\u515a\u7684\u65bd\u7eaa\u8d24\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5728\u5e2e\u52a9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6210\u529f\u7ade\u9009\u540e\uff0c\u7231\u4e0a\u4e86\u9020\u738b\u8005\uff08<span>kingmaker<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51fa\u4f4d\u7684\u8a00\u884c\uff0c\u9884\u544a\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u98ce\u4e91\u53d8\u5e7b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u7684\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u201c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u518d\u6b21\u4f1f\u5927\u201d\uff08<span>Make America Great Again, MAGA<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f18\u5148\u201d\uff08<span>America First<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u8303\u56f4\u5219\u5305\u7f57\u751a\u5e7f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u751a\u4e3a\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u667a\u5e93\u4f20\u7edf\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff08<span>Heritage Foundation<\/span>\uff09\u5728<span>2023<\/span>\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u201c<span>2025<\/span>\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff08<span>Project 2025<\/span>\uff09\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u5217\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u8303\u7574\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6267\u884c\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u957f\u8fbe<span>900<\/span>\u9875\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u6709<span>100<\/span>\u591a\u4e2a\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u673a\u6784\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u524d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53e3\u53e3\u58f0\u58f0\u8bf4\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u4ed6\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u8bf4\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u4e3b\u6d41\u601d\u60f3\u3002<span>2016<\/span>\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7ade\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u65f6\u4f20\u7edf\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9996\u4e24\u5e74\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u5df2\u8ddf\u968f\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u7684<span>64%<\/span>\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u4e0a\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u6bd4\u8f83\u786e\u5b9e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8303\u56f4\u5305\u62ec\u51cf\u7a0e\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u8fdb\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e8e<span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u6210\u529f\u5728\u56fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u51cf\u7a0e\u53ca\u804c\u4f4d\u6cd5\u6848\u201d\uff08<span>Tax Cuts and Jobs Act<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u591a\u9879\u6761\u6b3e\u53ea\u662f\u4e34\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u5e74\u5e95\u5931\u6548\u3002\u82e5\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7a0e\u7387\u4fbf\u4f1a\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4f4e\u7a0e\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u53e6\u65b9\u9762\u4ea6\u60f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51cf\u7a0e\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u201c<span>2025<\/span>\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u662f\u5c06\u73b0\u6709\u7a0e\u7387\u63a8\u5012\u91cd\u6765\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u5206<span>15%<\/span>\u548c<span>30%<\/span>\u4e24\u79cd\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u5219\u51cf\u81f3<span>18%<\/span>\u3002\u6709\u6279\u8bc4\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u58eb\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7a0e\u540e\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u7684\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u638c\u63a7\u4e86\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u9662\u7684\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u51cf\u7a0e\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u4f1a\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u5927\u524a\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u52bf\u6dfb\u6c11\u6028<\/h5>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u4ea6\u8ba1\u5212\u524a\u51cf\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6548\u7387\u3002\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u66fe\u7ecf\u7a0d\u4e3a\u968f\u610f\u5730\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u540c\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5728\u53bb\u5e74<span>9<\/span>\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u4e3a<span>6.75<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u5373\u5360\u603b\u5f00\u652f\u7684<span>30%<\/span>\u3002\u518d\u770b\u770b\u5f00\u652f\u4e2d\u5fc5\u987b\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u533b\u7597\u548c\u56fd\u503a\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u5df2\u8fbe<span>4.13<\/span>\u4ebf\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u3002\u9980\u4e0b\u7684\u518d\u51cf<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u4fbf\u53ea\u6709<span>0.62<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\uff0c\u8fde\u8be5\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u66f4\u65e0\u7ecf\u8d39\u7528\u4e8e\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u9000\u4f0d\u519b\u4eba\u798f\u5229\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u751f\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u82e5\u8981\u8282\u7701<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u548c\u5f15\u53d1\u6c11\u6028\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u7684\u51cf\u7a0e\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u5e45\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5927\u4ecd\u672a\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5305\u62ec\u591a\u6b21\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u589e\u52a0\u5f81\u6536\u5173\u7a0e\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4ea6\u96be\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u524a\u51cf\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7684\u8d22\u8d64\u6548\u679c\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u201c\u56a3\u5f20\u7684\u7279\u6743\u201d\uff08<span>exorbitant privileges<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u5bf9\u8d22\u8d64\u548c\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u89c6\u82e5\u65e0\u7779\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u53bb\u7f8e\u5143\u5316\u8fd8\u672a\u8ba4\u771f\u5730\u6253\u51fb\u5230\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e24\u515a\u4ecd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u900f\u652f\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u987e\u95ee\u56e2\u961f\u5e38\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fdb\u53e3\u662f\u7ed9\u5916\u56fd\u8d5a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u94b1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u662f\u5916\u56fd\u627e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u8981\u51cf\u5c11\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5f81\u6536\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u662f\u4ece\u6c47\u7387\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u5916\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8d2d\u4e70\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u3002\u4f46\u5173\u7a0e\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u52a0\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u662f\u5236\u88c1\u5916\u56fd\u6216\u4fdd\u62a4\u672c\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u65e9\u524d\u66fe\u626c\u8a00\u8981\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81<span>60%<\/span>\u5173\u7a0e\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4ea7\u54c1<span>10%<\/span>\u751a\u81f3<span>20%<\/span>\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u53c8\u4ee5<span>25%<\/span>\u5173\u7a0e\u5a01\u80c1\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\uff0c\u8981\u5b83\u4eec\u9650\u5236\u82ac\u592a\u5c3c\u548c\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u8fdb\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u53c8\u8bf4\u4ee5<span>100%<\/span>\u5173\u7a0e\u5bf9\u4ed8\u90a3\u4e9b\u8981\u53bb\u7f8e\u5143\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u5df4\u62ff\u9a6c\u8fd0\u6cb3\u548c\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5c9b\uff0c\u4e5f\u7528\u5173\u7a0e\u5a01\u80c1\u5df4\u62ff\u9a6c\u548c\u4e39\u9ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4f17\u591a\u5916\u5730\u5f81\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u65e0\u5f02\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u5916\u8d38\uff0c\u8d8b\u5411\u5b64\u7acb\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5916\u56fd\u4ea6\u4f1a\u8fd8\u4ee5\u989c\u8272\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5206\u5de5\u5df2\u843d\u5b9e\u5230\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u5173\u7a0e\u5bb9\u6613\u8bef\u4e2d\u526f\u8f66\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f1a\u5982\u56de\u529b\u9556\u822c\u5bb3\u4eba\u5bb3\u5df1\u3002\u5230\u5934\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6216\u4f1a\u8d8b\u5411\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u7f29\u4e0b\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u589e\u503c\u7686\u4ed8\u8bf8\u4e1c\u6d41\u3002\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6216\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6e38\u8bf4\uff0c\u6216\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u7406\u7531\u4e89\u53d6\u8c41\u514d\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u4e0d\u8db3\u800c\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u4f30\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e<span>2.0<\/span>\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f46\u7a0e\u7387\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5982\u4f20\u95fb\u822c\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u96be\u4ee5\u8feb\u4f7f\u5916\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u3002\u4e00\u6765\u9762\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8ba9\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u6765\u62b5\u6d88\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5c06\u8d27\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u5c31\u5982\u9001\u7f8a\u5165\u864e\u53e3\u3002\u4e8c\u6765\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u4f17\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u5f31\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u662f\u5012\u884c\u9006\u65bd\u3002\u8fd9\u60c5\u51b5\u548c<span>1985<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5e7f\u573a\u534f\u8bae\u65f6\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u65e5\u4e2d\u5929\uff0c\u6bcf\u6bcf\u5a01\u80c1\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u8ba9\u65e5\u5706\u5347\u503c\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u8bef\u5224\u548c\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5446\u6ede\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u662f\u540e\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u5c06\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u7269\u4ef7<\/h5>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5355\u65b9\u9762\u8ba9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u6765\u4fc3\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\uff1f\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u4ef7\u7684\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u6bcb\u987b\u542c\u547d\u4e8e\u767d\u5bab\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56f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