{"id":220792,"date":"2024-10-03T17:26:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/"},"modified":"2024-10-03T17:55:05","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T09:55:05","slug":"us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\u770b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5f62\u52bf"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2021\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u9009\u4e3e\u5931\u8d25\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u917f\u6210\u56fd\u4f1a\u5c71\u5e84\u7684\u66b4\u52a8\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u753b\u9762\u4ecd\u5386\u5386\u5728\u76ee\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u6ce2\u8be1\u4e91\u8c32\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u8f6c\u77ac\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e34\u8fd1\u4e4b\u65e5\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u751a\u5177\u5386\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u9996\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u53ca\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4f4d\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u7684\u770b\u70b9\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5c40\u52bf\u5747\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u56db\u4f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>81%\u4eba\u89c6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u8bae\u9898<\/h5>\n<p>\u5728\u521a\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u77ed\u77ed\u6570\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7206\u53d1\u4e86\u96be\u4ee5\u6392\u89e3\u7684\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u4ee5\u54c8\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6b27\u7f8e40\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u89c1\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8\u538b\u79d1\u6280\u6218\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u9ad8\u6b4c\u731b\u8fdb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f14\u53d8\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u5e94\u5bf9\u548c\u5408\u7eb5\u8fde\u73af\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u7531\u8c01\u9886\u5bfc\u3001\u505a\u600e\u6837\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5927\u6982\u4e5f\u5728\u76d8\u7b97\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u51b2\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u5815\u80ce\u3001\u67aa\u68b0\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u91cd\u70b9\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u8651\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u4e8e\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a<a href=\"#\u6ce8\">\u3010\u6ce8\u3011<\/a>\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u9009\u6c11\u8003\u8651\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u670981%\u9009\u6c11\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u533b\u7597\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5219\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u987f\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\uff1a\u201c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff01\u201d\uff08It is the economy, 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Cuts and Jobs Act, 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\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u5815\u80ce\u3001\u67aa\u68b0\u7ba1\u5236\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u91cd\u70b9\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8003\u8651\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Pew Research Center\uff09\u4e8e\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u3010\u6ce8\u3011\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u9009\u6c11\u8003\u8651\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u670981%\u9009\u6c11\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u533b\u7597\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5219\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u89c6\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u987f\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\uff1a\u201c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff01\u201d\uff08It is the economy, stupid\uff09\u3002\u7ffb\u5f00\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u5747\u987a\u5229\u8fde\u4efb\uff0c\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec12\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\u514b\u6797\u987f\u3001\u5c0f\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u3002\u82e5\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5219\u5168\u90e8\u8fde\u4efb\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8fd9\u60c5\u51b5\u67096\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8f83\u8fd1\u5e74\u7684\u5361\u7279\u3001\u8001\u5e03\u6b8a\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e3a\u552f\u4e00\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u51e0\u53ef\u8fde\u4efb\u3002\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u9635\u524d\u6613\u5e05\uff0c\u6539\u7531\u8d3a\u9526\u4e3d\u5e94\u6218\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u603b\u7ed3\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u540c\u653f\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\uff0c\u5c1a\u5f855\u661f\u671f\u540e\u68c0\u5b9a\u3002 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\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e8e\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u800c\u975e\u666e\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u4e9b\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u8d77\u7740\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u52a1\u90e8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5c40\uff08BEA\uff09\u6570\u5929\u524d\u53d1\u8868\u5404\u5dde\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u548c\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5dde\u3002\u82e5\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u771f\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u8d3a\u9526\u4e3d\u4fbf\u53ef\u8f7b\u677e\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u4e86\u3002 \u6ce8\uff1a https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2024\/09\/09\/issues-and-the-2024-election\/ \u9646\u708e\u8f89\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u8363\u8a89\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u56db\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u201c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u201d\u4e13\u680f\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/us-election-and-the-domestic-and-global-economy\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-03T09:26:22+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-03T09:55:05+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\u770b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5f62\u52bf - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"2021\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u9009\u4e3e\u5931\u8d25\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u917f\u6210\u56fd\u4f1a\u5c71\u5e84\u7684\u66b4\u52a8\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u753b\u9762\u4ecd\u5386\u5386\u5728\u76ee\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u6ce2\u8be1\u4e91\u8c32\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u8f6c\u77ac\u53c8\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e34\u8fd1\u4e4b\u65e5\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u751a\u5177\u5386\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u9996\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u53ca\u5c11\u6570\u65cf\u88d4\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u6216\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4f4d\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u7684\u770b\u70b9\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5c40\u52bf\u5747\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u56db\u4f0f\u3002 81%\u4eba\u89c6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u8bae\u9898 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Center\uff09\u4e8e\u4e0a\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u3010\u6ce8\u3011\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u9009\u6c11\u8003\u8651\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u670981%\u9009\u6c11\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6392\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7684\u533b\u7597\uff0865%\uff09\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5219\u56e0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u51b7\u6de1\u800c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u53d7\u91cd\u89c6\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u4e00\u76f4\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u662f1992\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u987f\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\u7684\u53e3\u53f7\uff1a\u201c\u7b28\u86cb\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff01\u201d\uff08It is the economy, 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