{"id":219812,"date":"2024-09-19T18:39:11","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T10:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us\/"},"modified":"2024-09-19T18:42:23","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T10:42:23","slug":"worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u56f0\u96be\u7ebe 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Reinhart<\/span>\uff09\u548c\u7f57\u683c\u592b\uff08<span>Kenneth Rogoff<\/span>\uff09\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4ece<span>1946<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<span>2009<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9<span>44<\/span>\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u548c\u65b0\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u6bd4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7<span>90%<\/span>\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4f4d\u589e\u957f\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d1f\u62c5\u8f83\u8f7b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4f4e\u7ea6<span>1.5%<\/span>\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5219\u4f4e\u8fd1<span>3%<\/span>\u4e4b\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u8d22\u8d64\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u8d85\u8fc7<span>3%<\/span>\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u4ee4\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\u611f\u5230\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u4ee5\u6b27\u76df\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u4e8e<span>1997<\/span>\u5e74\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u516c\u7ea6\u201d\uff08<span>Stability and Growth Pact<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u76d1\u7763\u548c\u9650\u5236\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u53ca\u516c\u503a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u8d22\u653f\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u89c4\u5b9a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0d\u5f97\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<span>3%<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u503a\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5e94\u7ef4\u6301\u5728<span>60%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u82e5\u91c7\u7528\u6b64\u4e00\u51c6\u5219\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u8d64\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u73b0\u51b5\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u4ee4\u4e0d\u5c11\u6709\u8bc6\u4e4b\u58eb\u5bf9\u5176\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5fe7\u5fc3\u5fe1\u5fe1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53d7\u5230\u8fd1<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u548c\u4f4e\u503a\u52a1\u6210\u672c\u7684\u50ac\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002<span>2023<\/span>\u5e74<span>6<\/span>\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u7b7e\u7f72\u56fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u8d22\u653f\u8d23\u4efb\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u6682\u505c\u4e86<span>31.4<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u76f4\u5230<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74<span>1<\/span>\u6708\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u6574\u4f53\u503a\u52a1\u4e3a<span>33<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea6<span>28<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7531\u516c\u4f17\u6301\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u53f0\u9ad8\u7b51<\/h5>\n<p>\u3010\u56fe<span>1<\/span>\u3011\u663e\u793a\uff0c<span>2023<\/span>\u5e74\u516c\u503a\u4e0e<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1<span>100%<\/span>\uff0c\u603b\u503a\u52a1\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7<span>120%<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u81ea\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6<span>103%<\/span>\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b\u4f46\u4ea6\u66fe\u56e0\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u76c8\u9980\uff0c\u5728<span>1974<\/span>\u5e74\u964d\u81f3<span>23%<\/span>\u3002<span>2001<\/span>\u5e74\u514b\u6797\u987f\u603b\u7edf\u79bb\u4efb\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a<span>32.8%<\/span>\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fde\u7eed<span>23<\/span>\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u8d22\u8d64\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u503a\u52a1\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8fd1\u4e4e<span>100%<\/span>\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u662f\u65e5\u540e\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff08<span>CBO<\/span>\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6b64\u6bd4\u7387\u5c06\u4e8e<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u8fbe<span>116%<\/span>\uff0c<span>2054<\/span>\u5e74\u66f4\u5c06\u5347\u81f3<span>163%<\/span>\u3002\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6784\u6210\u63a3\u8098\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-219802 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"462\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1.png 708w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph1-1-300x196.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u652f\u4e25\u91cd\u5931\u8861<\/h5>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74<span>6<\/span>\u6708\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u5c06<span>2024<\/span>\u5e74\u5ea6\u8d22\u8d64\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u8c03<span>4000<\/span>\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e3a<span>7%<\/span>\u3010\u56fe<span>2<\/span>\u3011\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5f62\u6210\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c<span>2020<\/span>\u5e74\u4e3a<span>3.13<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2021<\/span>\u5e74\u4e3a<span>2.78<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5206\u522b\u4e3a<span>14.7%<\/span>\u548c<span>11.8%<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e<span>CBO<\/span>\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u8282\u8282\u4e0a\u5347\uff1a<span>1990<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a<span>1380<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2000<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e3a<span>3180<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2010<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e3a<span>8290<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<span>2020<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u66f4\u9ad8\u8fbe<span>2.23<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb<span>3<\/span>\u5e74\u7684\u5e9e\u5927\u8d64\u5b57\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4f4e\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d64\u5b57\u5c5e\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\uff0c<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74\u81f3<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u6599\u5c06\u9ad8\u4f01\u4e8e<span>22.1<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\u8d22\u8d64\u6e90\u81ea\u9ad8\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u81ea<span>1974<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u5e73\u5747\u5360<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684<span>17.3%<\/span>\uff0c\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u7387\u5219\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6\u4e3a<span>21%<\/span>\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e74\u5747\u8d64\u5b57\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4ecb\u4e4e<span>3%<\/span>\u4e0e<span>4%<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u8fd1\u4e4e\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u73b0\u65f6\u652f\u51fa\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a<span>24%<\/span>\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e<span>2034<\/span>\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1<span>25%<\/span>\uff0c\u8d22\u8d64\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u6bd4\u7387\u5219\u8fbe<span>7.7%<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f25\u8865\u8fd1<span>2<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6536\u652f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u7a0e\u548c\u8282\u6d41\u53cc\u7ba1\u9f50\u4e0b\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a0e\u52a1\u5c40\u6700\u65b0\u7684<span>2021<\/span>\u5e74\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u9996<span>5%<\/span>\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u5bcc\u88d5\u9636\u5c42\u7f34\u4ea4\u7a0e\u6b3e\u5360\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u8fd1\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u9996<span>25%<\/span>\u7684\u6536\u5165\u9636\u5c42\u7f34\u4ea4\u8fd1<span>90%<\/span>\u7684\u603b\u7a0e\u6b3e\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u9636\u5c42\u5219\u6709\u534a\u6570\u4ec5\u7f34\u7eb3<span>2.3%<\/span>\u7684\u603b\u7a0e\u6b3e\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u52a0\u7a0e\u987b\u5177\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u5e94\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6295\u8d44\u5931\u53bb\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u65f6\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a<span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u51cf\u7a0e\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u524a\u51cf\u4e86\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\u3002\u6cd5\u6848\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5c06\u5728<span>2025<\/span>\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u5230\u671f\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c<span>CBO<\/span>\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d22\u8d64<span>22.1<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u518d\u589e\u52a0<span>4<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span> <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-219805\" src=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1.png 725w, https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/graph2-1-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 725px) 100vw, 725px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>\u5355\u9760\u52a0\u7a0e\u96be\u671b\u6536\u6548<\/h5>\n<p>\u62dc\u767b\u603b\u7edf\u5df2\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u4f4e\u4e8e<span>40<\/span>\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff08\u5360\u603b\u6570<span>95%<\/span>\uff09\u52a0\u7a0e\uff0c\u5374\u6709\u610f\u5411\u9980\u4e0b\u7684<span>5%<\/span>\u52a0\u7a0e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u4ed8<span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u6cd5\u6848\u4e00\u65e6\u5ef6\u957f\u6240\u9700\u3002\u7136\u800c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u52a0\u5f81\u5bcc\u4eba\u7a0e\u85c9\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u652f\u6548\u679c\u6210\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u5f00\u652f\u76ee\u524d\u6709<span>80%<\/span>\u5c5e\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u5c31\u662f\u9996\u4e24\u9879\u6700\u5927\u5f00\u652f\uff1b\u53ea\u6709<span>20%<\/span>\u5c5e\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u56fd\u9632\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u6392\u9664\u56fd\u9632\u4e00\u73af\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u7ea6<span>7500<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5f53\u524d<span>65<\/span>\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u6bd4\u8fbe<span>18%<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u793e\u4fdd\u548c\u533b\u7597\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u652f\u51fa\u6709\u589e\u65e0\u5df2\u3002\u8fd1<span>20<\/span>\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6b64\u4e24\u5927\u9879\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u672a\u7ecf\u56fd\u4f1a\u5ba1\u67e5\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u8ba1\u5728<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u5185\u540c\u6837\u9762\u4e34\u8d44\u91d1\u8017\u5c3d\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8981\u7d27\u7f29\u5f00\u652f\u8c08\u4f55\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ad8\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u4ee4\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u5bf9<span>GDP<\/span>\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7<span>3%<\/span>\u3002<span>CBO<\/span>\u9884\u6d4b<span>10<\/span>\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u5c06\u8fbe<span>1.7<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u4e4b\u9980\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u798f\u5229\u8ba1\u5212\u96be\u514d\u53d7\u5230\u6ce2\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>\u503a\u52a1\u6269\u5f20\u5982\u4f55\u6536\u573a<\/h5>\n<p>\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u503a\u5238\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u4e3e\u8db3\u8f7b\u91cd\u3002\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u6bcf\u5e74\u987b\u628a\u73b0\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u65b0\u878d\u8d44\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u8fd8\u987b\u8d44\u52a9\u73b0\u884c\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u62cd\u5356\u56fd\u503a\u672a\u5fc5\u594f\u6548\uff0c\u5076\u6709\u95ea\u5931\uff0c\u66f4\u8db3\u4ee5\u52a8\u6447\u6574\u4e2a\u53d1\u884c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5df2\u88ab\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14\u548c\u60e0\u8a89\u4e0b\u8c03\u8bc4\u7ea7\uff1b\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62e5\u6709\u7ea6<span>25%<\/span>\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6216\u4f1a\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u7f8e\u56fd\u6539\u53d8\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728<span>1990<\/span>\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u7ecf\u6709\u201c\u503a\u5238\u4e49\u548c\u56e2\u201d\uff08<span>bond vigilantes<\/span>\uff09\u8feb\u4f7f\u514b\u6797\u987f\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5176\u6700\u540e\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u5b9e\u73b0<span>4<\/span>\u6b21\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u9980\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u7ed3\u7b97\u94f6\u884c\u4ea6\u5728\u5176\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u7c7b\u4f3c<span>2022<\/span>\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7a81\u7136\u5bf9\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u656c\u800c\u8fdc\u4e4b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u80a1\u5e02\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u9ad8\u8d22\u8d64\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u7cfb\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6574\u4f53\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u4e1c\u5347\u897f\u964d\u201d\u7684\u5f62\u52bf\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u529b\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u65e0\u9650\u91cf\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u5f53\u662f\u4e0b\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u96be\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span> Annual Economic Report 2024, Bank of International Settlements<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span> Budget and Economic Outlook, Congressional Budget Office 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb<\/strong><br 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vigilantes\uff09\u8feb\u4f7f\u514b\u6797\u987f\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5176\u6700\u540e\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u5b9e\u73b04\u6b21\u9884\u7b97\u76c8\u9980\u3002 \u56fd\u9645\u7ed3\u7b97\u94f6\u884c\u4ea6\u5728\u5176\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u7c7b\u4f3c2022\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7a81\u7136\u5bf9\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u656c\u800c\u8fdc\u4e4b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u80a1\u5e02\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\u3002 \u5f52\u6839\u7a76\u67e2\uff0c\u9ad8\u8d22\u8d64\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u7cfb\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6574\u4f53\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\u53ca\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u4e1c\u5347\u897f\u964d\u201d\u7684\u5f62\u52bf\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u529b\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\u65e0\u9650\u91cf\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u5f53\u662f\u4e0b\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u96be\u5173\u3002 \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1a Annual Economic Report 2024, Bank of International Settlements Budget and Economic Outlook, Congressional Budget Office 2024 \u8c22\u56fd\u751f\u535a\u58eb\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/worrying-fiscal-predicament-looms-large-for-the-us\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-09-19T10:39:11+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-09-19T10:42:23+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u56f0\u96be\u7ebe \u524d\u666f\u582a\u865e - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" 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