{"id":214014,"date":"2024-06-06T19:45:30","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T11:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/whither-us-trade-policy\/"},"modified":"2024-06-07T18:20:30","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T10:20:30","slug":"whither-us-trade-policy","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/whither-us-trade-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u4f55\u53bb\u4f55\u4ece"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u603b\u503c\u7ea6180\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u3001\u7535\u6c60\u3001\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u548c\u533b\u7597\u7528\u54c1\u7b49\u3002\u867d\u7136\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u5360\u51fa\u53e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u5374\u52a0\u5267\u4e866\u5e74\u524d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u5c40\u9762\u6076\u5316\u3002\u6570\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u5468\u300d\uff08World Trade 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is back\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6446\u51fa\u5e26\u9886\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u542f\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u59ff\u6001\u3002\u62dc\u767b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6bd4\u8f83\u63a5\u53d7\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u66fe\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7b7e\u8ba2\u300a\u5317\u7f8e\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u300b\uff08NAFTA\uff09\uff0c\u4ea6\u8d5e\u6210\u4e2d\u56fd\u57282001\u5e74\u52a0\u5165WTO\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2020\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u7528\u9b6f\u83bd\uff08reckless\uff09\u3001\u7834\u574f\u6027\uff08damaging\uff09\u548c\u707e\u96be\u6027\uff08disastrous\uff09\u6765\u6279\u8bc4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5df2\u6267\u653f\u8d85\u8fc73\u5e74\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u64a4\u9500\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7a0e\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u53d8\u672c\u52a0\u5389\u3002\u6df1\u7a76\u5176\u56e0\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u6001\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u96be\u4ee5\u56de\u5230\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u57282016\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6446\u51fa\u4fdd\u62a4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u59ff\u6001\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3e\u4e3a\u5176\u4e89\u53d6\u5230\u4e0d\u5c11\u9009\u7968\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u7684\u9009\u7968\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6279\u8bc4\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u4e0d\u5229\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u9000\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u534f\u8bae\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u5bf9\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u6781\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u4ee3\u8868\u6234\u7426\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e0c\u62c9\u8389\u5728\u7ade\u9009\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u65f6\u8f93\u7ed9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u5979\u652f\u6301\u300a\u8de8\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u534f\u8bae\u300b\uff08TPP\uff09\u3002\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u7b3c\u7f69\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u8bae\u9898\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5ba2\u907f\u4e4b\u60df\u6050\u4e0d\u53ca\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u65e2\u4e0d\u6562\u64a4\u9500\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u6562\u56de\u5230\u524d\u8eab\u4e3aTPP\u7684\u300c\u5168\u9762\u4e0e\u8fdb\u6b65\u8de8\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u534f\u8bae\u300d\uff08CPTPP\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62dc\u767b\u60f3\u5c06\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u91cd\u65b0\u7eb3\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u5230\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u6c99\u5229\u6587\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u4ee3\u8868\u6234\u7426\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u63a8\u51fa\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff08foreign policy for the middle-class\uff09\u548c\u300c\u4ee5\u5de5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff08worker-centered trade policy\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u770b\u91cd\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u4f4e\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5931\u4e1a\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u65e0\u72ec\u6709\u5076\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5916\u56fd\u96c7\u4e3b\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5916\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5c06\u56e0\u6b64\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5de5\u4f5c\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\u6234\u7426\u5c06\u6b64\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u9010\u5e95\u7ade\u4e89\u300d\uff08a race to the bottom\uff09\u3002\u300c\u4ee5\u5de5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u672c\u56fd\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u5305\u62ec\u5de5\u4f5c\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u5f85\u9047\u3001\u5de5\u4f1a\u6743\u76ca\u5728\u5185\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u514d\u53d7\u5265\u524a\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f1a\u5e26\u52a8\u5176\u4ed6\u76df\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u300c\u529b\u4e89\u4e0a\u6e38\u300d\uff08a race to the 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School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u4e0a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u603b\u503c\u7ea6180\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u3001\u7535\u6c60\u3001\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u548c\u533b\u7597\u7528\u54c1\u7b49\u3002\u867d\u7136\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u503c\u5360\u51fa\u53e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u5374\u52a0\u5267\u4e866\u5e74\u524d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u5c40\u9762\u6076\u5316\u3002\u6570\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u5468\u300d\uff08World Trade Week\uff09\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f00\u5e55\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u534e\u65b0\u5173\u7a0e\u4e3a\u5176\u8d38\u6613\u6210\u5c31\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u300c\u4fdd\u62a4\u300d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002 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first\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e0a\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u662f\u4e0d\u53d7\u591a\u8fb9\u6216\u590d\u8fb9\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u63a3\u8098\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u85d0\u89c6\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08WTO\uff09\u7b49\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\u7684\u88c1\u5b9a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6253\u538b\u7834\u574f\u6709\u5173\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ee5\u53cc\u8fb9\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u7f8e\u56fd\u7528\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u529b\u91cf\u80c1\u8feb\u5bf9\u65b9\u3002\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5e94\u5bf9\u76df\u53cb\u548c\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u62db\u6570\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6570\u5e74\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u4ea6\u6ca1\u6709\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6240\u8a00\u7531\u4e2d\u56fd\u627f\u62c5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u627f\u62c5\u3002 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back\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6446\u51fa\u5e26\u9886\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u542f\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u59ff\u6001\u3002\u62dc\u767b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6bd4\u8f83\u63a5\u53d7\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u66fe\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7b7e\u8ba2\u300a\u5317\u7f8e\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u300b\uff08NAFTA\uff09\uff0c\u4ea6\u8d5e\u6210\u4e2d\u56fd\u57282001\u5e74\u52a0\u5165WTO\u3002 2020\u5e74\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u7528\u9b6f\u83bd\uff08reckless\uff09\u3001\u7834\u574f\u6027\uff08damaging\uff09\u548c\u707e\u96be\u6027\uff08disastrous\uff09\u6765\u6279\u8bc4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5df2\u6267\u653f\u8d85\u8fc73\u5e74\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u64a4\u9500\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7a0e\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u53d8\u672c\u52a0\u5389\u3002\u6df1\u7a76\u5176\u56e0\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u6cbb\u751f\u6001\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u96be\u4ee5\u56de\u5230\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u3002 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policy\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u770b\u91cd\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u4f4e\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5931\u4e1a\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u65e0\u72ec\u6709\u5076\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5916\u56fd\u96c7\u4e3b\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5916\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5c06\u56e0\u6b64\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5de5\u4f5c\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\u6234\u7426\u5c06\u6b64\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u9010\u5e95\u7ade\u4e89\u300d\uff08a race to the bottom\uff09\u3002\u300c\u4ee5\u5de5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u672c\u56fd\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u5305\u62ec\u5de5\u4f5c\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u5f85\u9047\u3001\u5de5\u4f1a\u6743\u76ca\u5728\u5185\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u514d\u53d7\u5265\u524a\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f1a\u5e26\u52a8\u5176\u4ed6\u76df\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u300c\u529b\u4e89\u4e0a\u6e38\u300d\uff08a race to the top\uff09\u3002 \u964d\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u653e\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u9009\u9879 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policy\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u770b\u91cd\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u4f4e\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u5916\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5931\u4e1a\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u65e0\u72ec\u6709\u5076\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5916\u56fd\u96c7\u4e3b\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5916\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u5c06\u56e0\u6b64\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5de5\u4f5c\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\u3002\u6234\u7426\u5c06\u6b64\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u9010\u5e95\u7ade\u4e89\u300d\uff08a race to the bottom\uff09\u3002\u300c\u4ee5\u5de5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u672c\u56fd\u548c\u5916\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u5305\u62ec\u5de5\u4f5c\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u5f85\u9047\u3001\u5de5\u4f1a\u6743\u76ca\u5728\u5185\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u514d\u53d7\u5265\u524a\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f1a\u5e26\u52a8\u5176\u4ed6\u76df\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u6743\u76ca\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u300c\u529b\u4e89\u4e0a\u6e38\u300d\uff08a race to the top\uff09\u3002 \u964d\u5173\u7a0e\u5f00\u653e\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u9009\u9879 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