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Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u4e3e\u786e\u4fdd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u969c\u788d\u3002\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u8bb2\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987b\u4e3a\u76d1\u5bdf\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8ba2\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4e3a\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u5173\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u65e7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ca\u7406\u8bba<\/h5>\n<p>\u65e9\u572820\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5df2\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u534f\u52a9\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u4e3a\u751f\u4ea7\u9886\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ea6\u662f\u7b14\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5219\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u53ea\u5bf9\u65b0\u6d3b\u52a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u805a\u7126\u5177\u4f53\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u63a8\u52a8\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7269\u6599\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u975e\u6574\u4e2a\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u884c\u4e1a\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d7\u8865\u8d34\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5e94\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u548c\u793a\u8303\u6548\u5e94\u6f5c\u529b\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u4e3b\u7ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u6267\u884c\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5168\u529b\u63a8\u884c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u6267\u884c\u673a\u6784\u5e94\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u9876\u5c42\u4e2d\u660e\u786e\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u4e3b\u4f53\u52a0\u4ee5\u5bc6\u5207\u76d1\u7763\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5177\u5907\u660e\u786e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5185\u7f6e\u7684\u5931\u6548\u6761\u6b3e\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0e\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5efa\u7acb\u7545\u901a\u7684\u5b9a\u671f\u6c9f\u901a\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u987b\u5e94\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u73af\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5177\u5907\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u4e13\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8bbe\u7684\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u83b7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8baf\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u521b\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u6765\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking 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Rodrik\uff09\u8054\u540cJuh\u00e1sz\u53ca\u8fde\u6069\uff08Lane\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u628a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u5305\u62ec\u6fc0\u53d1\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6539\u5584\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4f18\u8d28\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u652f\u6301\u6ede\u540e\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u6269\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fdb\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b49\u3002 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\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4f1a\u56e0\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u884c\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u76f4\u63a5\u8d22\u653f\u62e8\u6b3e\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\uff1b\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5219\u8f83\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\uff0c\u4ea6\u8f83\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u91c7\u7528\u9488\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 \u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u6559\u6388\u8ddf\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\uff08Joseph Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u4e3e\u786e\u4fdd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u969c\u788d\u3002\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u8bb2\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987b\u4e3a\u76d1\u5bdf\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8ba2\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4e3a\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u5173\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 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\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u4e13\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8bbe\u7684\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u83b7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8baf\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u521b\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u6765\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff09\u3002 \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u8d1f\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6216\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u5e76\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a2a\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08vertical 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content=\"\u8fd1\u5e74\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u7ecf\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u591a\u6b21\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u800c\u5c24\u5176\u7740\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u727a\u7272\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ea6\u613f\u610f\u653e\u5f03\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5949\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u3002 2023\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u6c99\u5229\u6587\uff08Jake Sullivan\uff09\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e00\u6539\u8fc7\u53bb\u62e5\u62b1\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8f74\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u8ddf\u4e2a\u522b\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea4\u5f80\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u300c\u53cb\u56fd\u5916\u5224\u300d\uff08friendshoring\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u51fa\u5982\u300a\u82af\u7247\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08CHIPS Act\uff09\u3001\u300a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u6cd5\u300b\uff08Inflation Reduction Act\uff09\u7b49\u8865\u8d34\u672c\u571f\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002 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\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u8d1f\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56 \u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b20\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u867d\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5b9a\u4e49\u6709\u5206\u522b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u81ea1980\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002\u6700\u4f73\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u592e\u53ca\u5730\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u5efa\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u533a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u533a\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u4ea7\u4e1a\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u521b\u9020\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u900f\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5916\u6ea2\uff0c\u534f\u52a9\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u514b\u670d\u6280\u672f\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4ee5\u81f3\u8d44\u91d1\u7b49\u7684\u77ed\u677f\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u6548\u5206\u62c5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u3002 \u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6216\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u5e76\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a2a\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5907\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6b27\u7f8e\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9500\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 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content=\"2024-04-17T03:09:16+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-24T01:57:02+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u897f\u65b9\u65b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u542f\u8fea - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u8fd1\u5e74\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u7ecf\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u591a\u6b21\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u800c\u5c24\u5176\u7740\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u727a\u7272\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ea6\u613f\u610f\u653e\u5f03\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5949\u884c\u7684\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u3002 2023\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u6c99\u5229\u6587\uff08Jake Sullivan\uff09\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e00\u6539\u8fc7\u53bb\u62e5\u62b1\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8f74\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u8ddf\u4e2a\u522b\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea4\u5f80\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u300c\u53cb\u56fd\u5916\u5224\u300d\uff08friendshoring\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a8\u51fa\u5982\u300a\u82af\u7247\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08CHIPS Act\uff09\u3001\u300a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u6cd5\u300b\uff08Inflation Reduction Act\uff09\u7b49\u8865\u8d34\u672c\u571f\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002 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Rodrik\uff09\u8054\u540cJuh\u00e1sz\u53ca\u8fde\u6069\uff08Lane\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u628a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u5305\u62ec\u6fc0\u53d1\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6539\u5584\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4f18\u8d28\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u652f\u6301\u6ede\u540e\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u6269\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fdb\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b49\u3002 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Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u4e3e\u786e\u4fdd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u969c\u788d\u3002\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u8bb2\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987b\u4e3a\u76d1\u5bdf\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8ba2\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4e3a\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u5173\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 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\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u4e13\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8bbe\u7684\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u83b7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8baf\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u521b\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u6765\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff09\u3002 \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u8d1f\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6216\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u5e76\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a2a\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5907\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6b27\u7f8e\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9500\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 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\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4f1a\u56e0\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u884c\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u76f4\u63a5\u8d22\u653f\u62e8\u6b3e\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\uff1b\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5219\u8f83\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\uff0c\u4ea6\u8f83\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u91c7\u7528\u9488\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 \u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u6559\u6388\u8ddf\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\uff08Joseph Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u4e3e\u786e\u4fdd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u969c\u788d\u3002\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u8bb2\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987b\u4e3a\u76d1\u5bdf\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8ba2\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4e3a\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u5173\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 \u65e7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ca\u7406\u8bba \u65e9\u572820\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5df2\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u534f\u52a9\u5404\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u4e3a\u751f\u4ea7\u9886\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ea6\u662f\u7b14\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u7684\u5341\u5927\u539f\u5219\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a \u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u53ea\u5bf9\u65b0\u6d3b\u52a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\uff1b \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u805a\u7126\u5177\u4f53\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u63a8\u52a8\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7269\u6599\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u975e\u6574\u4e2a\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u884c\u4e1a\uff1b \u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d7\u8865\u8d34\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5e94\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u548c\u793a\u8303\u6548\u5e94\u6f5c\u529b\uff1b \u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u4e3b\u7ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u6267\u884c\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5168\u529b\u63a8\u884c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\uff1b \u6267\u884c\u673a\u6784\u5e94\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u9876\u5c42\u4e2d\u660e\u786e\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u4e3b\u4f53\u52a0\u4ee5\u5bc6\u5207\u76d1\u7763\uff1b \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5177\u5907\u660e\u786e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\uff1b \u8bbe\u5b9a\u5185\u7f6e\u7684\u5931\u6548\u6761\u6b3e\uff1b \u4e0e\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5efa\u7acb\u7545\u901a\u7684\u5b9a\u671f\u6c9f\u901a\uff1b \u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u987b\u5e94\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u73af\uff1b \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5177\u5907\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002 \u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u4e13\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8bbe\u7684\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u83b7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8baf\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u521b\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u6765\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff09\u3002 \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u8d1f\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56 \u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b20\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u867d\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5b9a\u4e49\u6709\u5206\u522b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u81ea1980\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u63a8\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002\u6700\u4f73\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u592e\u53ca\u5730\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u5efa\u7acb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7279\u533a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u533a\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u4ea7\u4e1a\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u521b\u9020\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u900f\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u81ea\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5916\u6ea2\uff0c\u534f\u52a9\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u514b\u670d\u6280\u672f\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4ee5\u81f3\u8d44\u91d1\u7b49\u7684\u77ed\u677f\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u6548\u5206\u62c5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u3002 \u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6216\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u5e76\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a2a\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08vertical 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Rodrik\uff09\u8054\u540cJuh\u00e1sz\u53ca\u8fde\u6069\uff08Lane\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u628a\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u76ee\u6807\u5305\u62ec\u6fc0\u53d1\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u6539\u5584\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u4f18\u8d28\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u652f\u6301\u6ede\u540e\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u6269\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fdb\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b49\u3002 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\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4f1a\u56e0\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u884c\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u76f4\u63a5\u8d22\u653f\u62e8\u6b3e\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d37\u6b3e\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\uff1b\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5219\u8f83\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u6ce8\u5165\uff0c\u4ea6\u8f83\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u91c7\u7528\u9488\u5bf9\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 \u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u6559\u6388\u8ddf\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\uff08Joseph Stiglitz\uff09\u5728\u672c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u5217\u4e3e\u786e\u4fdd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\uff1a\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u3001\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5d4c\u5165\u6027\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5efa\u7acb\u7b56\u7565\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u9047\u4e0e\u969c\u788d\u3002\u534f\u8c03\u6027\u8bb2\u6c42\u5404\u516c\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u987b\u4e3a\u76d1\u5bdf\u53ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u6548\u8ba2\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u4e3a\u9075\u5b88\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u6539\u5584\u76f8\u5173\u5236\u5ea6\u3002 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\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u4f18\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bf9\u672c\u571f\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3001\u5411\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\u51c6\u5165\u3001\u4e13\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8bbe\u7684\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u56fd\u5185\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u60e0\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u83b7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6216\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8baf\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff08\u5982\u521b\u65b0\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f01\u4e1a\u672a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u672a\u6765\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8baf\u606f\uff09\u3002 \u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u4e3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4e91\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5584\u4e8e\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Governments are not good at picking winners\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u8f93\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u61c2\u5f97\u8981\u9760\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff08Losers are good at picking governments\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u8d1f\u9762\u8de8\u5883\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5f80\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56 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\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6216\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u5e76\u53ef\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u4ea4\u901a\u57fa\u5efa\u3001\u51fa\u53e3\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u4ed3\u5e93\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a2a\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08horizontal spillover\uff09\u5916\uff0c\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u4ee51960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\uff08vertical spillover\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u5e9c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u82b1\u519c\u4e1a\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u5f15\u5b50\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u5177\u5907\u9ad8\u589e\u503c\u53ca\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6b27\u7f8e\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u82b1\u5349\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u53ca\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9500\u552e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7f57\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5e38\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u7eb5\u5411\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u3002 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