{"id":208207,"date":"2024-01-03T15:35:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T07:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war\/"},"modified":"2024-02-21T10:08:18","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T02:08:18","slug":"how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/how-far-are-we-from-a-nuclear-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6211\u4eec\u79bb\u6838\u6218\u6709\u591a\u8fdc?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8bb2\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u4e4b\u7236\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. 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content=\"\u6211\u4eec\u79bb\u6838\u6218\u6709\u591a\u8fdc? - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8bb2\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u4e4b\u7236\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u7814\u53d1\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u4e3a\u53cd\u6218\u7acb\u573a\u548c\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u5de6\u503e\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5267\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u4f53\u4eba\u7c7b\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5267\u3002\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3001\u6269\u6563\u548c\u7ade\u8d5b\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u65f6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u6218\u8ba1\u5212 \u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u654c\u5bf9\u9635\u8425\u7684\u5212\u5206\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u524d\u90a3\u4e48\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u6838\u6218\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5982\u7f8e\u82cf\u4e89\u9738\u65f6\u90a3\u4e48\u663e\u7740\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u7f8e\u82cf\u4e24\u56fd\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ba1\u5212\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u5927\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u66fe\u7ecf\u60ac\u4e8e\u4e00\u7ebf\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5e76\u672a\u6bc1\u706d\uff0c\u5168\u9760\u8fd0\u6c14\u800c\u5df2\u30022017\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u672b\u65e5\u673a\u5668\u300b\uff08The Doomsday Machine\uff09\u62ab\u9732\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u6b64\u4e66\u7684\u526f\u6807\u9898\u6b63\u662f\u300c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u6218\u7b56\u5212\u8005\u7684\u81ea\u767d\u300d\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u57c3\u5c14\u65af\u4f2f\u683c\uff08Daniel Ellsberg\uff09\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u58ee\u4e3e\uff0c\u662f1971\u5e74\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u5341\u51e0\u5bb6\u62a5\u7eb8\u62ab\u9732\u7edd\u5bc6\u7684\u300c\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u6587\u4ef6\u300d\uff0c\u63ed\u53d1\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u548c\u519b\u65b9\u660e\u77e5\u8d8a\u6218\u65e0\u6cd5\u6253\u8d62\u800c\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9690\u7792\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u6b64\u4e8b\u6210\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ece\u8d8a\u5357\u64a4\u519b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bf1\u56e0\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u66fe\u7ecf\u79f0\u4ed6\u4e3a\u300c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u5371\u9669\u7684\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u4ef7\u963b\u6b62\u4ed6\u53d1\u58f0\u3002 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content=\"\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u6620\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\u300b\uff0c\u8bb2\u8ff0\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u4e4b\u7236\u5965\u672c\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08J. Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u7814\u53d1\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u4e3a\u53cd\u6218\u7acb\u573a\u548c\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u5de6\u503e\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5267\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u4f53\u4eba\u7c7b\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5267\u3002\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3001\u6269\u6563\u548c\u7ade\u8d5b\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u65f6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u6218\u8ba1\u5212 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Ellsberg\uff09\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u58ee\u4e3e\uff0c\u662f1971\u5e74\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u5341\u51e0\u5bb6\u62a5\u7eb8\u62ab\u9732\u7edd\u5bc6\u7684\u300c\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u6587\u4ef6\u300d\uff0c\u63ed\u53d1\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u548c\u519b\u65b9\u660e\u77e5\u8d8a\u6218\u65e0\u6cd5\u6253\u8d62\u800c\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9690\u7792\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u6b64\u4e8b\u6210\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ece\u8d8a\u5357\u64a4\u519b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bf1\u56e0\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u66fe\u7ecf\u79f0\u4ed6\u4e3a\u300c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u5371\u9669\u7684\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u4ef7\u963b\u6b62\u4ed6\u53d1\u58f0\u3002 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Robert Oppenheimer\uff09\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\u7814\u53d1\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u56e0\u4e3a\u53cd\u6218\u7acb\u573a\u548c\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u5de6\u503e\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u60b2\u5267\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5168\u4f53\u4eba\u7c7b\u5171\u540c\u7684\u60b2\u5267\u3002\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3001\u6269\u6563\u548c\u7ade\u8d5b\uff0c\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u53d7\u632b\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5c31\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6697\u793a\u8feb\u4e0d\u5f97\u5df2\u65f6\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u6218\u8ba1\u5212 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