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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u788d\u4e8e\u53d1\u58f0\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u5747\u4e3a\u5185\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u533a\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e2e\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u95e8\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5185\u751f\u540e\u679c\u3002 \u9000\u51fa\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u5185\u751f\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u624d\u662f\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5f53\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u65e0\u9700\u8bc9\u8bf8\u53d1\u58f0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u9009\u62e9\u79bb\u5f00\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u5f53\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u53d1\u58f0\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u58f0\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u62a5\u590d\u6216\u60e9\u7f5a\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u8fd8\u65e0\u6cd5\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0b\u573a\u5c06\u96be\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6c89\u9ed8\u624d\u662f\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c31\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u53d1\u58f0\u3002\u4e00\u6765\u9000\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u4e0d\u83f2\uff0c\u4e8c\u6765\u4ea6\u6bcb\u987b\u8fc7\u4efd\u62c5\u5fc3\u56e0\u53d1\u58f0\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u7f5a\uff08\u603b\u6709\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u540e\u7740\uff09\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u9000\u51fa\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5448\u53cd\uff35\u5f62\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002 \u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u754c\u5b9a\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u5185\u751f\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5398\u6e05\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u4e4b\u95f4\u539f\u672c\u542b\u7cca\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5b9a\u593a\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u751f\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u827a\u672f\u800c\u975e\u79d1\u5b66\u3002 \u5747\u8861\u53cd\u5e94 \u5728\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u8bbe\u53d1\u58f0\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u9690\u542b\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u9ad8\u5c42\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u58f0\u4f5c\u51fa\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u5927\u4f53\u4e0a\u5c06\u9ad8\u5c42\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u89c6\u4f5c\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u5177\u4f53\u7684\uff09\u3002 \u4f46\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c42\u600e\u6837\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u9a6f\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u53d1\u58f0\u5931\u6548\u3002\u9a6f\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7ed9\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7f16\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u5f53\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u53d8\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u5f02\u89c1\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u6c64\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff1a\u4ece\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u5fe0\u8bda\u300b\u8bf4\u8d77 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u6df1\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u517c\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u963f\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\uff08Albert Hirschman\uff09\u4ee5\u5176\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u5fe0\u8bda\u300b\uff08Exit, Voice, and Loyalty\uff09\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236\u3002 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\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u901a\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u60ef\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u60ef\u901a\u8fc7\u9000\u51fa\u673a\u5236\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4f30\u53d1\u58f0\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u603b\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u53d1\u58f0\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u60ef\u6027\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u672a\u88ab\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6548\uff1a\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u575a\u6301\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7ec8\u96be\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c2\u73b0\u5b9e\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f6c\u5c31\u4f1a\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5267\u53d8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u95f4\u65ad\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u8bfa\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5e7f\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u89c2\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u591a\u6837\u6027 \u9664\u4e86\u5355\u4e00\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u8d44\u8baf\uff0c\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ea6\u987b\u63a2\u8ba8\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u8fd0\u7528\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u54c1\u8d28\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9192\u5728\u900f\u8fc7\u79c1\u6821\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff08\u6307\u4eba\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6559\u80b2\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff09\u6216\u53ef\u6784\u6210\u969c\u788d\u3002 \u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u79c1\u6821\u900f\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9ad8\u54c1\u8d28\u7684\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f4\u91cd\u89c6\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u4e14\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u652f\u4ed8\u6602\u8d35\u5b66\u8d39\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bb6\u957f\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u53d1\u58f0\u300d\u6765\u63d0\u5347\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u54c1\u8d28\u65b9\u9762\u6700\u79ef\u6781\u4e5f\u6700\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4ed6\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u5c06\u5b69\u5b50\u9001\u5f80\u79c1\u6821\uff0c\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u4fbf\u591a\u7559\u4e0b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u5173\u5fc3\u8f83\u5c11\u3001\u4e5f\u8f83\u65e0\u529b\u53d1\u58f0\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5bb6\u5ead\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u9010\u6e10\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5173\u5fc3\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u4f46\u65e0\u529b\u627f\u62c5\u79c1\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u5b66\u8d39\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6b64\u4e43\u4e00\u5927\u60b2\u5267\u3002 \u5185\u751f\u6027 \u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u85c9\u7531\u7eb3\u5165\u76f8\u5173\u80cc\u666f\u8baf\u606f\u6765\u589e\u8fdb\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u65f6\u5982\u6b64\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u8baf\u606f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6784\u6210\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u4e2a\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u4e2a\u53ef\u4f9b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ea7\u751f\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6837\u3001\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u4ee5\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u524d\u8ff0\u8ba8\u8bba\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6697\u793a\u9000\u51fa\u4f1a\u4f7f\u53d1\u58f0\u591a\u4f59\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c31\u65e0\u9700\u518d\u53d1\u58f0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u52a9\u529b\u53d1\u58f0\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u77e5\u9053\u60c5\u51b5\u82e5\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002 \u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u788d\u4e8e\u53d1\u58f0\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u5747\u4e3a\u5185\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u533a\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e2e\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u95e8\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5185\u751f\u540e\u679c\u3002 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\u4f46\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c42\u600e\u6837\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u9a6f\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u53d1\u58f0\u5931\u6548\u3002\u9a6f\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7ed9\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7f16\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u5f53\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u53d8\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u5f02\u89c1\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u6c64\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ba1\u7406\u53ca\u5546\u4e1a\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u65f6\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e09\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e03\u65e5\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u62a5\u300b\u300c\u9f99\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u4e13\u680f\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3a\u66f4\u65b0\u7248\u672c\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/opinions-and-speeches\/%e5%85%b7%e4%bd%93%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e4%bb%8e%e8%b5%ab%e5%b8%8c%e6%9b%bc%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8a%e9%80%80%e5%87%ba%e3%80%81%e5%8f%91%e5%a3%b0%e4%b8%8e\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-28T02:14:03+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-29T02:46:10+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff1a\u4ece\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u5fe0\u8bda\u300b\u8bf4\u8d77 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u6df1\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u517c\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u963f\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\uff08Albert Hirschman\uff09\u4ee5\u5176\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9000\u51fa\u3001\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u5fe0\u8bda\u300b\uff08Exit, Voice, and Loyalty\uff09\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236\u3002 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u788d\u4e8e\u53d1\u58f0\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u5747\u4e3a\u5185\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u533a\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e2e\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u95e8\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5185\u751f\u540e\u679c\u3002 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\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u901a\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u60ef\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u60ef\u901a\u8fc7\u9000\u51fa\u673a\u5236\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4f30\u53d1\u58f0\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u603b\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u53d1\u58f0\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u60ef\u6027\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u672a\u88ab\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6548\uff1a\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u575a\u6301\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6700\u7ec8\u96be\u514d\u5728\u5ba2\u89c2\u73b0\u5b9e\u9762\u524d\u78b0\u58c1\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f6c\u5c31\u4f1a\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u5267\u53d8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u95f4\u65ad\u5747\u8861\u300d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u8bfa\u65af\uff08Douglass North\uff09\u63a8\u5e7f\u800c\u6d41\u884c\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u89c2\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 \u591a\u6837\u6027 \u9664\u4e86\u5355\u4e00\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u8d44\u8baf\uff0c\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4ea6\u987b\u63a2\u8ba8\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u8fd0\u7528\u53d1\u58f0\u4e0e\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u54c1\u8d28\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9192\u5728\u900f\u8fc7\u79c1\u6821\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u516c\u5171\u6559\u80b2\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff08\u6307\u4eba\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6559\u80b2\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff09\u6216\u53ef\u6784\u6210\u969c\u788d\u3002 \u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u79c1\u6821\u900f\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9ad8\u54c1\u8d28\u7684\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f4\u91cd\u89c6\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u4e14\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u652f\u4ed8\u6602\u8d35\u5b66\u8d39\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bb6\u957f\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u53d1\u58f0\u300d\u6765\u63d0\u5347\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u54c1\u8d28\u65b9\u9762\u6700\u79ef\u6781\u4e5f\u6700\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4ed6\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u5c06\u5b69\u5b50\u9001\u5f80\u79c1\u6821\uff0c\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u4fbf\u591a\u7559\u4e0b\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u5173\u5fc3\u8f83\u5c11\u3001\u4e5f\u8f83\u65e0\u529b\u53d1\u58f0\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5bb6\u5ead\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u516c\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u9010\u6e10\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5173\u5fc3\u6559\u80b2\u54c1\u8d28\u4f46\u65e0\u529b\u627f\u62c5\u79c1\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u5b66\u8d39\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6b64\u4e43\u4e00\u5927\u60b2\u5267\u3002 \u5185\u751f\u6027 \u5177\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u85c9\u7531\u7eb3\u5165\u76f8\u5173\u80cc\u666f\u8baf\u606f\u6765\u589e\u8fdb\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u65f6\u5982\u6b64\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\u8baf\u606f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6784\u6210\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u4e2a\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u4e2a\u53ef\u4f9b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ea7\u751f\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6837\u3001\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u4ee5\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u524d\u8ff0\u8ba8\u8bba\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6697\u793a\u9000\u51fa\u4f1a\u4f7f\u53d1\u58f0\u591a\u4f59\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65e6\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c31\u65e0\u9700\u518d\u53d1\u58f0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u52a9\u529b\u53d1\u58f0\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u77e5\u9053\u60c5\u51b5\u82e5\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002 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\u7a76\u7adf\u9000\u51fa\u6709\u52a9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u788d\u4e8e\u53d1\u58f0\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u5747\u4e3a\u5185\u751f\uff08endogenous\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7531\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u533a\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\uff08exogenous\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u7531\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e2e\u52a9\u6e05\u6670\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u95e8\u3002\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a, \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u5728\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5185\u751f\u540e\u679c\u3002 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\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u754c\u5b9a\u5916\u751f\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u5185\u751f\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5398\u6e05\u9000\u51fa\u548c\u53d1\u58f0\u4e4b\u95f4\u539f\u672c\u542b\u7cca\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5b9a\u593a\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5916\u751f\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u827a\u672f\u800c\u975e\u79d1\u5b66\u3002 \u5747\u8861\u53cd\u5e94 \u5728\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u8bbe\u53d1\u58f0\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u9690\u542b\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u9ad8\u5c42\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u58f0\u4f5c\u51fa\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u5927\u4f53\u4e0a\u5c06\u9ad8\u5c42\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u89c6\u4f5c\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u5177\u4f53\u7684\uff09\u3002 \u4f46\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u8ff0\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d6b\u5e0c\u66fc\u63d0\u53ca\u9ad8\u5c42\u600e\u6837\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u9a6f\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4ee4\u5176\u53d1\u58f0\u5931\u6548\u3002\u9a6f\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u7ed9\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7f16\u6d3e\u300c\u5b98\u65b9\u300d\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u5f53\u5f02\u89c1\u8005\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u53d8\u6210\u610f\u6599\u4e2d\u4e8b\uff0c\u5f02\u89c1\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5c31\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u6c64\u59c6\u68ee\uff08James Thomson\uff09\uff0c\u539f\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6708\u520a\u300b\uff0c \u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a 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