{"id":153516,"date":"2021-10-21T09:00:52","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T01:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/?post_type=thought-leadership&p=153516"},"modified":"2021-10-22T11:00:15","modified_gmt":"2021-10-22T03:00:15","slug":"the-copernican-revolution-of-economics","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-copernican-revolution-of-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u54e5\u767d\u5c3c\u5f0f\u9769\u547d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5e38\u9047\u5230\u7684\u300c\u804c\u4e1a\u98ce\u9669\u300d\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6b64\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u53ef\u5949\u544a\uff0c\u7686\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u80a1\u5e02\u6216\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u4e3a\u6570\u751a\u5c11\u3002\u6240\u5e78\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5229\u7ef4\u7279\uff08Steve Levitt\uff09\u5728\u5176\u7545\u9500\u540d\u7740\u300a\u602a\u7656\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff08Freakonomics\uff09\u4e2d\u5411\u5927\u4f17\u5c55\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5206\u6790\u5982\u8b66\u5bdf\u6570\u76ee\u548c\u5815\u80ce\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u5bf9\u7f6a\u6848\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u76f8\u6251\u624b\u5728\u8d5b\u4e8b\u4e2d\u4f5c\u5f0a\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u7b49\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6838\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u8d56\u4eca\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u4e09\u4f4d\u5f97\u5956\u8005\uff1a\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u83b1\u5206\u6821\u7684\u5361\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\uff08David Card\uff09\u3001\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\u6559\u6388\uff08Joshua Angrist\uff09\u3001\u53f2\u4e39\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u56e0\u672c\u65af\u6559\u6388\uff08Guido Imbens\uff09\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u52aa\u529b\u5ba3\u5bfc\uff0c\u6b64\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f20\u51a0\u674e\u6234\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/h5>\n

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\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6cd5<\/h5>\n

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\u8861\u91cf\u57f9\u8bad\u8ba1\u5212\u6210\u6548\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e94\u4ee5\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3a\u672c\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u8981\u8fa8\u8bc6\u5176\u4e2d\u529f\u6548\uff0c\u53ef\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u57f9\u8bad\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7531\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u6bd4\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u4e0e\u975e\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u963f\u7533\u83f2\u5c14\u7279\u6559\u6388\u7684\u95e8\u751f\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\uff0e\u62c9\u9686\u5fb7\u6559\u6388 \uff08Robert Lalonde\uff09\u5c31\u66fe\u91c7\u7528\u6b64\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u82e5\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5de5\u4eba\u5e76\u975e\u968f\u673a\u53c2\u52a0\u57f9\u8bad\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u6210\u6548\u8bc4\u4f30\u96be\u514d\u4f1a\u5927\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5de8\u5320\u7684\u9769\u547d\u6027\u521b\u89c1<\/h5>\n

\u8fd0\u7528\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fa8\u8bc6\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u66fe\u53d7\u4e1a\u4e8e\u963f\u7533\u83f2\u5c14\u7279\u6559\u6388\u548c\u5361\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u7684\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\u6559\u6388\uff08Joshua David Angrist\uff09\u624b\u4e2d\u53d1\u626c\u5149\u5927\u3002\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5f81\u5175\u62bd\u7b7e\u53f7\u7801\u8db3\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u5165\u4f0d\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4ece\u4e2d\u4f30\u7b97\u5165\u4f0d\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u6bd5\u751f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\u6559\u6388\u548c\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u6559\u6388\uff08Alan Krueger\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u82e5\u4ecd\u5728\u4e16\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u53ef\u593a\u672c\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6842\u51a0\uff09\u53d1\u73b0\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7684\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u63a5\u53d7\u5b66\u6821\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u671f\u6709\u6240\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u501f\u6b64\u518d\u4f30\u91cf\u5728\u5b66\u5e74\u671f\u5bf9\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\u6559\u6388\u548c\u57c3\u6587\u65af\uff08William Evans\uff09\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e2d\u82e5\u5934\u4e24\u80ce\u5747\u5c5e\u540c\u4e00\u6027\u522b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u751f\u7b2c\u4e09\u80ce\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c31\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u5934\u4e24\u80ce\u7684\u6027\u522b\u7ec4\u5408\u4e8e\u662f\u6210\u4e3a\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8ba9\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4ece\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u591a\u4e00\u80ce\uff08\u7b2c\u4e09\u80ce\uff09\u5bf9\u6bcd\u4eb2\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\u6559\u6388\u8fd8\u7814\u53d1\u51fa\u5176\u4ed6\u5de7\u5999\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e3a\u6570\u4f17\u591a\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c3d\u5f55\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u8c41\u7136\u786e\u65af\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u66f4\u56e0\u6613\u4e8e\u4e0a\u624b\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6977\u6a21\u3002\u7b14\u8005\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u4e0a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u8bfe\uff0c\u5e76\u66fe\u4efb\u5176\u6559\u5b66\u52a9\u7406\uff0c\u83b7\u76ca\u532a\u6d45\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u7b14\u8005\u4e0e\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u7f57\u6654\u535a\u58eb\u548c\u5f20\u6653\u709c\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u53ef\u4ee4\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5404\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u9519\u4e0a\u52a0\u9519\u3002\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u81ea\u8bc1\u504f\u89c1\uff08self-fulfilling bias\uff09\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5404\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u4f46\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u7248\u672c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u4f4d\u5f97\u5956\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u7eb3\u5165\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6539\u5584\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u89e3\u51b3\u5185\u751f\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u6548\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u582a\u79f0\u4ef7\u503c\u6c38\u6052\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u7eb7\u7ead\u65f6\u5c40\u4e2d\u53d1\u6398\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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