{"id":149906,"date":"2021-09-02T09:00:05","date_gmt":"2021-09-02T01:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fbe.hku.hk\/?p=149906&post_type=thought-leadership&preview_id=149906"},"modified":"2021-09-02T10:44:03","modified_gmt":"2021-09-02T02:44:03","slug":"qe-fiscal-qe-and-mmt-2","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/opinions-and-speeches\/qe-fiscal-qe-and-mmt-2\/","title":{"rendered":"QE, \u8d22\u653fQE\u4e0eMMT"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u539f\u5b9a\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6000\u4fc4\u660e\u5dde\u6770\u514b\u68ee\u970d\u5c14\uff08Jackson Hole\uff09\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u592e\u884c\u5e74\u4f1a\uff0c\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u5173\u7cfb\u53ea\u80fd\u548c\u53bb\u5e74\u4e00\u6837\u4ee5\u89c6\u50cf\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e3e\u884c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd\u5c24\u4e3a\u77a9\u76ee\uff0c\u7686\u56e0\u5168\u7403\u8d22\u7ecf\u754c\u4eba\u58eb\u90fd\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u51cf\u8d2d\u503a\u5238\uff08tapering\uff09\u4f1a\u5426\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b0\u7684\u8baf\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5e02\u573a\u6ce8\u89c6\u7f8e\u5c31\u4e1a<\/h5>\n

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\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u592a\u5bbd\u677e<\/h5>\n

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\u8d22\u653fQE\u60f9\u8d28\u7591<\/h5>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\u7684QE\u628a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u603b\u989d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u597d\u51e0\u500d\uff0c\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u4e4b\u524d\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u8054\u60f3\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u8f7b\u6613\u5730\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f55\u4e0d\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u91d1\u53bb\u5e94\u4ed8\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5f00\u652f\uff1f\u7279\u522b\u662fQE\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u600e\u6837\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u57282008\u5e74\u5e95\u81f32014\u5e7410\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u4e09\u8f6eQE\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u57282009\u5e746\u6708\u6b65\u51fa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u75312012\u81f32020\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53ea\u662f1.4%\u3002\u5f53\u592e\u884c\u8d2d\u503a\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u76ee\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u9879\u76ee\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4fbf\u6784\u6210\u6240\u8c13\u300c\u8d22\u653fQE\u300d\uff08Fiscal QE\uff09\u4e86\u3002\u5f53\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u91cf\u8d2d\u4e70\u503a\u5238\u6765\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u7684\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ea\u4e70\u8fd9\u79cd\u800c\u4e0d\u4e70\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u503a\u5238\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66fe\u5728\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6267\u6559\u3001\u73b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u667a\u5e93Cato Institute\u5c5e\u4e0b\u7684Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives\u4e3b\u4efbGeorge Selgin\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5728\u4ed6\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u4e66\u7c4d \u3010\u6ce82\u3011<\/a>\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8d22\u653fQE\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u65b9\u6848\u6700\u65e9\u6765\u81ea\u82f1\u56fd\u5de5\u515a\u524d\u9886\u8896\u79d1\u5c14\u5f6c\uff08Jeremy Corbyn\uff09\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u300c\u4eba\u6c11\u7684QE\u300d\uff08People’s QE\uff09\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5e94\u8be5\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u5efa\u8bbe\u3001\u7eff\u8272\u65b0\u653f\uff08green new deal\uff09\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u5b66\u751f\u503a\u52a1\u7b49\u9879\u76ee\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u5185\u5730\u4e5f\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5728\u53bb\u5e745\u6708\u524d\u540e\u4ee5\u300c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u8d27\u5e01\u5316\u300d\u7684\u6807\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u548c\u8d22\u653fQE\u4e00\u6b65\u4e4b\u9065\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u73b0\u4ee3\u8d27\u5e01\u7406\u8bba\uff08modern monetary theory, \u7b80\u79f0MMT\uff09\u3002MMT\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u4e0d\u6df1\u5165\u3001\u8c2c\u8bef\u4e5f\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u4e8e\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u66dd\u5149\u7387\u751a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u4e8e\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5192\u8d77\u548c\u53ea\u770b\u9009\u7968\u7684\u653f\u5ba2\u3002\u603b\u62ec\u800c\u8a00\uff0cMMT\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u53d7\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u8d22\u653f\u4e0a\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u6613\u5904\u7406\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81a8\u80c0\u81f3\u8d44\u6e90\u7f3a\u4e4f\u3001\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u589e\u52a0\u5f81\u7a0e\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u6765\u5e94\u4ed8\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd8\u597d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684QE\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684QE\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u8d22\u653fQE\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u662fMMT\u3002\u592e\u884c\u901a\u8fc7QE\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u5728\u5c06\u6765\u5356\u51fa\u3002\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e76\u975e\u957f\u671f\u8d37\u6b3e\u7ed9\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u65e0\u9700\u507f\u8fd8\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u800c\u6709\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u7a0e\u6536\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u6e20\u9053\u53e6\u89c5\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0cMMT\u4e0b\u7684\u592e\u884c\u53d1\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u7ed9\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u6765\u4f1a\u507f\u8fd8\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ea\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5370\u949e\u673a\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4ed9\u4e39<\/h5>\n

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\u5355\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u6765\u770b\uff0cMMT\u96be\u4ee5\u767b\u5802\u5165\u5ba4\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3aMMT\u6b6a\u7406\u8fde\u7bc7\u3002\u4f46\u4eca\u65f6\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u8fde\u6beb\u65e0\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6839\u636e\u3001\u8fdd\u80cc\u5e38\u7406\u7684\u5047\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u7b26\u5408\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u6216\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u9f13\u52a8\u51fa\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5728\u6709\u610f\u65e0\u610f\u95f4\uff0c\u88ab\u8d4b\u4e88\u6108\u6765\u6108\u591a\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u4ece\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u5904\u7406\u5931\u4e1a\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5230\u9632\u6b62\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u51cf\u5c11\u5916\u8d38\u8d64\u5b57\u3001\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u7f29\u51cf\u8d2b\u5bcc\u60ac\u6b8a\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u79cd\u65cf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5dee\u5f02\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u7279\u522b\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u56fd\u9645\u5316\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6216\u628a\u95ee\u9898\u5378\u5230\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u5e94\u8be5\u7528\u6765\u96c6\u4e2d\u5904\u7406\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u82e5\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u4e00\u77f3\u4e8c\u9e1f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u7f62\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\u3010\u6ce81\u3011\uff1ahttps:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/RRPONTSYD<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a>\u3010\u6ce82\u3011\uff1aGeorge Selgin, The Menace of Fiscal QE\uff08Cato Institute, 2020\uff09<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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