{"id":143955,"date":"2021-05-27T09:00:51","date_gmt":"2021-05-27T01:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fbe.hku.hk\/?post_type=thought-leadership&p=143955"},"modified":"2021-05-26T09:44:39","modified_gmt":"2021-05-26T01:44:39","slug":"the-pros-and-cons-of-economic-stimulus-packages","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-pros-and-cons-of-economic-stimulus-packages\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5de8\u989d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ebe\u56f0\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5229\u5f0a"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9488\u5bf92019\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u75c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u7ee7\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a2020\u5e74\u5148\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u603b\u503c2.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u548c9000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7ebe\u56f0\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u53c8\u7b7e\u7f72\u603b\u503c1.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u300c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6551\u63f4\u8ba1\u5212\u6cd5\u6848\u300d\uff0c\u5171\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u768424%\uff0c\u6570\u76ee\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5c31\u8fde2009\u5e74\u4e3a\u5e94\u4ed8\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u63a8\u51fa\u76848000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4e5f\u663e\u5f97\u76f8\u5f62\u89c1\u7ecc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u6613<\/h5>\n

\u636e\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u3010\u8868\u3011\uff0c\u7efc\u89c2\u4e09\u8f6e\u7ebe\u56f0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u5c0635.2%\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u91d1\u7528\u4f5c\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\uff0c38.4%\u4f5c\u4e3a\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u53ea\u536026.5%\u30022020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u503a\u52a1\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd1830\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u503a\u52a112%\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba12021\u5e741\u6708\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u6309\u6708\u589e\u957f2.4%\uff0c\u4e3a7\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u671f\u4e2a\u4eba\u6536\u5165\u5df2\u589e\u957f10.1%\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u8be5\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8fd8\u672a\u56de\u5230\u75ab\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e00\u9047\u7684\u75ab\u707e\u4ee4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8d8b\u5411\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8868\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\u83b7\u6d3e\u6b3e\u9879\u7528\u9014<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848<\/td>\n\u7b2c1\u8f6e<\/span><\/td>\n\u7b2c2\u8f6e<\/span><\/td>\n\u7b2c3\u8f6e<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7533\u62a5\u6708\u4efd<\/td>\n2020\u5e746\u6708<\/td>\n2021 \u5e74 1 <\/span>\u6708<\/td>\n2021 \u5e74 3 <\/span>\u6708<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6d88\u8d39\u5e73\u5747\u5360\u6bd4<\/td>\n29.2%<\/td>\n25.5%<\/td>\n24.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u50a8\u84c4\u5e73\u5747\u5360\u6bd4<\/td>\n36.4%<\/td>\n37.1%<\/td>\n41.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u507f\u503a\u5e73\u5747\u5360\u6bd4<\/td>\n34.5%<\/td>\n37.4%<\/td>\n33.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9884\u671f\u8c03\u67e5<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u66f4\u6709\u751a\u8005\uff0c1.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7ebe\u56f0\u65b9\u6848\u6216\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u957f\u671f\u635f\u5931\u3002\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u4e89\u8bae\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u65b9\u6848\u5c06\u51cf\u4f4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\uff08output gap\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u6f5c\u5728GDP\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u51fa\u73b0GDP\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u8d22\u957f\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\uff08Lawrence Summers\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u57282009\u81f32019\u5e74\u8fd910\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u6b65\u4f10\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5927\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u6162\u3002\u4ed6\u6700\u8fd1\u53c8\u5728\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u6587\uff0c\u6307\u6b63\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u672a\u590d\u5143\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u50a8\u84c4\u66f4\u5927\u91cf\u8fc7\u5269\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c9000\u4ebf\u548c1.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e24\u9879\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8ba1\u5212\u5b9e\u5728\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5e9e\u5927\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u8fb9\u53a2\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u5219\u663e\u7136\u4e3b\u5f20\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u529b\u5ea6\u6108\u731b\u6108\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n

2019\u81f32020\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u4e0b\u964d\u4e863.5%\uff0c\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u65f6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8003\u8651\u52302020\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0cGDP\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ea6\u4e3aGDP\u76844%\u3002\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e76\u65e0\u5426\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4f46\u987b\u8003\u8651\u6570\u989d\u3001\u65f6\u673a\u548c\u6027\u8d28\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5728\u75ab\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ee7\u7eed\u590d\u82cf\u7684\u5927\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c1.9\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5df2\u5360\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u76849%\uff0c\u8fdc\u8d85\u51fa\u4e864%\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e4%\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63d0\u9632\u901a\u80c0\u9690\u5fe7<\/h5>\n

\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u57282020\u5e748\u6708\u8c03\u6574\u901a\u80c0\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u628a\u8fc7\u5f802%\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u7531\u4e0a\u9650\u6539\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53ef\u57282%\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8c03\u8282\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u6709\u5173\u7ef4\u6301\u6b64\u4e00\u5e73\u5747\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5219\u672a\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u653f\u4e0a\u7684\u65b9\u9488\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u8fd1\u671f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u30022021\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5c06\u672c\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u4ece\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u76844.2%\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f36.5%\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f32.2%\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5219\u4ece5%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f34.5%\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b2022\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u8fbe3.3%\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u73872%\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u73873.9%\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd110\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u987e\u8651\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u5bfc\u81f4\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5feb\u901f\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f2021\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4ecd\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba1\u5212\u76f4\u81f32024\u5e74\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u8fd1\u96f6\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b\u4e3b\u8981\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u957f\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u3001\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7b49\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8be5\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5728\u56fd\u4f1a\u4f5c\u8bc1\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e76\u4e0d\u62c5\u5fc3\u8fd1\u671f\u957f\u671f\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8fd9\u7c7b\u503a\u5238\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u65e5\u76ca\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0cM2\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u75312010\u81f32019\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u4ee55.8%\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u81ea2020\u5e742\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5219\u5df2\u98d9\u534727%\u81f34.2\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u662f1943\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u7684\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u89c4\u6a21\u589e\u52a03.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684M2\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u901f\u5ea6\u4ecd\u7136\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u901f\u5ea6\u52a0\u5feb\uff0c\u5219\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u90e8\u5206\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u4ea6\u6b63\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee4\u751f\u4ea7\u80fd\u529b\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u5de5\u5382\u96be\u4ee5\u4ea4\u4ed8\u8d27\u7269\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u6295\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u56e0\u539f\u6750\u6599\u77ed\u7f3a\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6500\u5347\u800c\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eca\u5e741\u6708\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08Producer Price Index\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0PPI\uff09\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u53471.3%\uff0c2\u6708\u4e0a\u53470.5%\uff0c3\u6708\u4e0a\u53471%\uff0c\u81f34\u6708\u53c8\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e861.3%\uff0c\u5c0612\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u63a8\u9ad8\u81f35%\uff0c\u4e3a10\u5e74\u6765\u589e\u5e45\u4e4b\u51a0\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ea6\u9010\u6e10\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u56de\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u56e0\u5e94\u9700\u6c42\u9a71\u52a8\u800c\u4f9b\u5e94\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f80\u5f80\u5f15\u53d1\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d64\u5b57\u9884\u7b97\u4f5c\u98ce<\/h5>\n

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