{"id":158440,"date":"2021-11-30T15:05:05","date_gmt":"2021-11-30T07:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/?post_type=media&p=158440"},"modified":"2021-12-01T19:06:57","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T11:06:57","slug":"did-the-lockdown-lead-to-more-or-fewer-non-covid-deaths","status":"publish","type":"hkubs-media","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/media\/press-release\/did-the-lockdown-lead-to-more-or-fewer-non-covid-deaths\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u5c11\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7531\u6e2f\u5927\u7ecf\u7ba1\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53ca\u7ba1\u7406\u53ca\u5546\u4e1a\u7b56\u7565\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u4f55\u56fd\u4fca\u535a\u58eb\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u6297\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u300c\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff09\u5bf9\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u521a\u521a\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u6743\u5a01\u79d1\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300a\u81ea\u7136 – \u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u300b\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7a7a\u524d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u51cf\u8f7b\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5404\u8d70\u6781\u7aef\uff0c\u90e8\u4efd\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u91c7\u53d6\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u9650\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u75ab\u60c5\uff1b\u4ea6\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u91c7\u53d6\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u5730\u8bc9\u8bf8\u4e8e\u7fa4\u4f53\u514d\u75ab\u3002\u4f55\u535a\u58eb\u662f\u6b21\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fd0\u7528\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e25\u683c\u6297\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u672a\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f55\u56fd\u4fca\u535a\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u300c\u5173\u4e8e\u5e94\u5426\u5c31\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5b9e\u65bd\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u4e00\u76f4\u5907\u53d7\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c01\u9501\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9650\u5236\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u533b\u7597\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u9650\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u610f\u5916\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u9f13\u52b1\u4eba\u4eec\u4fdd\u62a4\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u5982\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u3001\u52e4\u6d17\u624b\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u51cf\u5c11\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u6d3b\u52a8\u6709\u5173\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u5982\u6539\u5584\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u4ea4\u901a\u4e8b\u6545\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u4ed6\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff08\u5982\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6d41\u611f\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u7a76\u7adf\u5e26\u6765\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u6536\u76ca\u8fd8\u662f\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5229\u7528\u8986\u76d6\u4e2d\u56fd\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u767b\u8bb0\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u6709\u5b9e\u65bd\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u548c\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u65bd\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5728\u300c\u5c01\u9501\u300d\u4e4b\u524d\u3001\u671f\u95f4\u548c\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6297\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u4f7f\u5f97\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e0b\u964d\u4e864.6%\u3002\u5728\u4e25\u683c\u300c\u5c01\u9501\u300d\u7684\u6700\u521d50\u5929\u5185\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e8654,000\u4eba\u56e0\u5176\u4ed6\u539f\u56e0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u653e\u677e\u540e\uff0c\u5065\u5eb7\u6536\u76ca\u4ecd\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5728\u300c\u5c01\u9501\u300d\u63aa\u65bd\u89e3\u9664\u540e\u7684115\u5929\u5185\uff0c\u975e\u65b0\u51a0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8612.5%\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e8629.3\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f55\u56fd\u4fca\u535a\u58eb\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ea4\u901a\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u4ee4\u7a7a\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u75be\u75c5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e5f\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6700\u521d\u6c61\u67d3\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\u5bf9\u9632\u6b62\u8fc7\u65e9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u793e\u4ea4\u8ddd\u79bb\u3001\u52e4\u6d17\u624b\u3001\u6d88\u6bd2\u548c\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u7b49\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u56e0\u5176\u4ed6\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f55\u535a\u58eb\u6307\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u89e3\u9664\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6539\u5584\u516c\u4f17\u5065\u5eb7\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u52aa\u529b\u63a7\u5236\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u613f\u610f\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u536b\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u597d\u5904\u5c31\u80fd\u53d8\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u662f\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\u7531\u6765\u81ea\u591a\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u5408\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u9664\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u6210\u5458\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u7b49\u673a\u6784\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4f55\u56fd\u4fca\u535a\u58eb\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u9ad8\u798f\u9662\u58eb\u548c\u5468\u8109\u8015\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4e3a\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5171\u540c\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u4e0e\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u9f50\u91d1\u857e\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u548c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5f20\u4e39\u4e39\u6559\u6388\u4e3a\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5171\u540c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

Jinlei\u00a0Qi+<\/sup>,\u00a0Dandan\u00a0Zhang+<\/sup>,\u00a0Xiang\u00a0Zhang,\u00a0 Tanakao\u00a0Takana,\u00a0Yuhang\u00a0Pan,\u00a0Peng\u00a0Yin,\u00a0Jiangmei\u00a0Liu,\u00a0 Shuocen\u00a0Liu,\u00a0George F.\u00a0Gao*<\/sup>,\u00a0Guojun\u00a0He*<\/sup>,\u00a0Maigeng\u00a0Zhou*<\/sup>. \u201cShort- and medium-term impacts of strict anti-contagion policies on non-COVID-19 mortality in China.\u201d Nature Human Behaviour<\/em>, (2021).
\n\u8be6\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-021-01189-3<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-158440","hkubs-media","type-hkubs-media","status-publish","hentry","media-categories-press-release-sc","media-topic-categories-research-sc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hkubs-media\/158440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hkubs-media"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/hkubs-media"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hkubs-media\/158440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":158503,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hkubs-media\/158440\/revisions\/158503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/sc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}