Doctoral Research Webinar: The War vs. Productivity Channel: How New Technology Led to Complex Societies in Neolithic China<\/strong><\/p>\n In this Quantitative History Webinar, Senhao Hu of Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences (IHSS) will examine how ground-stone technology contributed to the rise of complex societies during the Neolithic.<\/p>\n The standard account\u2014rooted in Gordon Childe\u2019s productivity-channel hypothesis\u2014argues that grinding improved farming implements and increased agricultural productivity, thereby generating food surpluses that supported population growth and complex-society development. In contrast, this study tests an alternative hypothesis: while agricultural and battlefield applications of the new technology both mattered for human welfare, the war channel was more decisive for the formation of complex societies. Specifically, more lethal stone weapons increased conflict threats, which in turn encouraged populations to agglomerate into larger, fortified settlements for defense\u2014ultimately triggering social complexity.<\/p>\n Using the China Archaeological Database, this research analyzes a panel of 487 grid cells across \u201cChina Proper\u201d over more than four millennia (6000\u20132000 BCE). The results show that, as a proxy for the war channel, stone-weapon grave goods consistently and significantly predict both the presence and intensity of large-settlement formation. By comparison, stone-farming-tool grave goods (a proxy for the productivity channel) do not show a comparable effect. Instrumental-variable estimations and two independent war-threat proxies\u2014fortified cities and violence-caused skeletal injuries\u2014further support the argument.<\/p>\n Importantly, the war channel through which ground-stone technology shaped complex-society development persists beyond the Neolithic, continuing through the Bronze Age (2000\u2013770 BCE) and the Iron Age (770\u2013221 BCE).<\/p>\n Senhao Hu\u2019s co-author: Zhiwu Chen (HKU Business School and IHSS)<\/p>\n Discussant: Yuqi Chen, Assistant Professor, IHSS and HKU Arts<\/p>\n Date: October 15, 2026<\/p>\n Time: 16:00 – 17:30 Venue: Zoom Webinar<\/p>\n Language: English<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Quantitative History (QH) Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The QH Webinar Series is co-organised by the Centre for Quantitative History at the HKU Business School and the International Society for Quantitative History in partnership with the Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. The Series is now substantially supported by the Areas of Excellence (AoE) Scheme from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. [AoE\/B-704\/22-R]).<\/p>\n Conveners: Professors Zhiwu Chen & Chicheng Ma<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-270578","event","type-event","status-publish","hentry","seminar-categories-quantitative-history-series-sc","event-natures-seminar-calendar","event-natures-sc-economics-seminar-seminar-calendar"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t
\n16:00 (Hong Kong\/Beijing\/Singapore)
\n04:00 (New York)|01:00 (Los Angeles)|09:00 (London)|17:00 (Tokyo)|19:00 (Sydney)<\/p>\nAbout the Quantitative History Lecture Series<\/h5>\n